Fantasy Debate: Jamaal Charles vs. Mark Ingram
This week’s edition of Spin Doctors brings you another backfield battle. Fantasy forecasters Liz Loza and Brad Evans examine the merits of Jamaal Charles and Mark Ingram. Loza gives the edge to the Chief. Evans, on the other hand, is throwing beads for the Saint. Which RB are you more likely to roster? Peruse their perspectives and then add your own thoughts in the comments section below.
Loza clamors of the King of Kansas City: For all but two of the past six seasons Charles has been a top-five fantasy pick. In 2012, however, he fell to the second round. Cautious managers avoided the back because he had torn his ACL in the second week of the 2011 season. Now, in 2016, he’s once again available in the second round of drafts (Pick No. 15, RB7)… because he’s returning from another ACL tear.
Some might say miracles don’t happen twice. But if anyone can pull off another miracle it’s the JC of KC.
This is a generational talent, folks. A rusher who has never – in his entire eight-year career – averaged fewer than 5.0 YPC. A player who in the first five weeks of 2015 bested his opening stats from the previous season by churning out over 540 combined yards and 5 scores. A stud who has been a fantasy RB1 five of the last seven years. And a top-three producer two of those five years. AND he’s already come back from the same injury, racking up a career number of rushing yards (1,509) in his bounce back campaign.
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Running back is the scarcest position in all of fantasy. Jamaal Charles is one of two of the most proven and resilient player at the position.
He also has two years left on his contract, which means he’s going to get fed. Maybe Spencer Ware will cut into some of his carries and vulture a few TDs. But the passing game – even with UDFA Charcandrick West in the mix – will remain voluminous for Charles. A 55 catch and 450 receiving yard season is not out of the question for the Chiefs’ most valuable player.
Even on a significantly reduced carry-count Charles is still a top-tier option. At 13 totes per contest and averaging a career-low 4.5 YPC, the Texas native would tally up over 930 rushing yards over a 16-week season. The question, of course, is can Charles go 16 (or even 14) games at 29-years-old and coming off major knee surgery.
I’m not sure. But do you think Mark Ingram will start 16 (or even 14) games in 2016? It’s not like the other side of this debate has a stalwart injury history. I mean the guy’s shoulder has to be the consistency of my mother-in-law’s pasta. Having never started more than 10 games over the past five years, Ingram boasts a career average of 4.3 YPC. He’s just not as good. And he’s not particularly durable.
In a world of Zero RB, where elite wideouts are a first round priority, Charles is an RB1 with oodles of upside, available in the second round. Factoring in draft strategy and value, the answer is obvious. A talent like Charles’ is worth the risk.
Evans thinks Ingram marks the spot: After a slow start to his NFL career, the Saints smasher has developed into one of the virtual game’s most productive all-around contributors. Thanks in large part to ‘Complete Junk’ Spiller’s minimal impact, the incumbent has dominated the snap share on the bayou netting right around 60 percent of the team’s carries/targets over the past two seasons. As a result, he’s averaged better than 12 fantasy points per game in consecutive campaigns (standard leagues), an underrated RB1 pillar in 12-team leagues.
Unlike other Alabama backs, Eddie Lacy and Trent Richardson, Ingram kept his sucky side dead and buried in 2015. He showcased noticeable improvement in yards per carry and ranked top-six at the position in juke rate and evaded tackles per game. Toss in his outstanding 83.3 catch percentage and he was a surprising consistency king in standard and PPR.
Bank on Ingram maintaining the mojo this fall, delivering a top-10 line. New Orleans’ offense is sure to present him with numerous goal-to-go opportunities and the Saints offensive line, which ranked No. 13 in run blocking per Football Outsiders last year and returns several key components, should be again create several exploitable holes. Yes, his injury history is substantial. He’s only logged 16 games in a season once, but without much competition, he’s a near lock for another 17-18 touches per game.
When healthy, the JC of KC walks on water. However, coming off his second major knee surgery in four years, his injury risk is enhanced. More concerning, he may not be ready for the start of training camp, which could complicate his Week 1 usage. Equally hair raising, it’s a distinct possibility Spencer Ware and Charcandrick West eat into the brittle veteran’s workload, limiting him to some 14-16 touches per game. The bulkier Ware, who topped RBs in fantasy points per snap last year, could also wrest away goal-line carries. KC’s o-line and offense in general also pales in comparison.
Throw back a Sazerac or three.
Ingram is the clear-cut choice in this debate.
SEE ALSO: DeVante Parker vs. Kevin White
Follow our fearless forecasters on twitter, Liz (@LizLoza_FF) and Brad (@YahooNoise).
