What to expect if Biden or Trump dropped out of the presidential race | Opinion

Q: What Happens if Joe Biden or Donald Trump drop out?

A: This question has come up a few times since I started writing this column. Considering the age of both leading candidates and the opinion polls showing how many people would like a different choice, it is not surprising that it keeps coming up. The answer depends on when a candidate drops out of the race.

Since the deadlines for getting on the ballot in most primary states have passed, it would be very difficult to enter the race on either side and compete for delegates. It is late enough that the decision concerning the party nominee would have to happen at the convention. Since both Biden and Trump likely have a majority of the pledged delegates, neither could be easily forced out. The candidates would have to withdraw and release their delegates.

The entire process is likely to be confusing and highly combative. Part of the problem is that the rules concerning delegate selection are complex and vary by state. Some delegates are released when a candidate withdraws, others are not. Some candidates may attempt to direct their delegates, others may not. If multiple candidates are competing at the convention, there will likely be significant conflicts over the law and process at the convention.

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Ultimately, potential candidates would compete at the convention to win the majority of delegates and achieve the nomination. However, the track record of candidates winning the presidency after a brokered or highly contentious convention is not great. It’s been over 100 years since a candidate was elected to the presidency after coming from behind in the convention to win the nomination. Party infighting usually predicts a poor performance in the general election.

The most recent example would be in 1952 at the Democratic Convention. Estes Kefauver, a senator from Tennessee, led after the first ballot. However, it was competitive, with Georgia Senator Richard Russell close behind. The eventual winner was Illinois Governor Adlai Stevenson, who only became a candidate after the convention began. Stevenson’s victory was partly driven by President Harry Truman, who was able to rally support for the Illinois Governor. Stevenson would then go on to lose to Dwight D. Eisenhower. Interestingly. Stevenson won the Democratic nomination again in 1956 with Kefauver as his running mate, only to lose again to Eisenhower.

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The party rules are determinative if a candidate withdraws after the convention. The national committee of that party would meet in a special session and vote on a person to replace the candidate. Historically, party leadership and the party national caucuses were how nominees were selected, so in some ways, this would be a return to the old system. However, I doubt many Americans would be satisfied with that kind of process today.

Ultimately, it is highly unlikely that either leading candidate would step down, nor is it a particularly good political strategy to start a nomination fight at the convention. While many Americans may be unhappy with the choices, barring the unexpected, the presidential race seems well set.

Kevin Wagner is a noted constitutional scholar and political science professor at Florida Atlantic University. The answers provided do not necessarily represent the views of the university. If you have a question about how American government and politics work, email him at kwagne15@fau.edu or reach him on Twitter @kevinwagnerphd.

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: If a candidate drops out, who fills in for presidential run?