Excela chief doctor: Westmoreland could be on edge of another covid surge

Nov. 21—Westmoreland County could be on the edge of a coronavirus case surge similar to one that hit around the holidays in 2020, Excela Health's top doctor said.

The number of deaths attributed to the virus has been higher than the same time period last year and the rate of positive cases jumped significantly in the past few days, according to figures from the Pennsylvania Department of Health.

"I think what we're seeing is the beginning of that fall surge where people are indoors more and around other people more," said Dr. Carol Fox, Excela's chief medical officer.

If so, the surge is coming to Westmoreland County a little earlier this year. Positive virus cases exploded in the county in October 2020 and peaked in December, stressing the hospital system, before dropping through January.

In September, there were 4,272 new positive cases, compared with just 500 in September 2020, according to health department statistics. There were about twice as many cases reported in October (4,440) than during the same month in 2020 (2,274).

So far in November, there have been about 3,500 cases reported. November 2020 saw 5,015 new cases before more than doubling in December to almost 10,164.

Deaths have been higher recently, too.

September saw 45 people die after contracting covid, compared with six in September 2020. In October, 67 people succumbed, compared with 62 in October 2020, according to state figures.

As of Saturday, 38 people have died in November. In 2020, there were 134 deaths reported in November and 234 in December, according to state figures.

What's different this year is that mask-wearing is being practiced less and people are gathering in congregate settings more, such as for in-person schooling and to socialize, Fox said.

Hospitalizations countywide have hovered in the 50s and 60s for covid patients since the beginning of October, far lower than the peak in late December and early January.

"It's been creeping up," Fox said. "It's certainly not going down."

About 91% of covid patients at Excela's three hospitals have not been fully vaccinated, something staff members have been seeing for months, Fox said. She encouraged vaccinations, which are widely accessible to the public — a sharp contrast to last year's holiday season.

A little more than half of Westmoreland residents are fully immunized, according to state figures.

"I think that plays a role as well," she said.

As the holiday season approaches, Fox is worried that those who are most at risk — older people with other medical issues — may be exposed to the virus during gatherings. She and other health professionals and state officials last year advised the public to stay home for the holidays and celebrate virtually with family and friends.

But whether the county sees a similar situation to late 2020, when Excela and other hospitals across the country issued dire warnings that they were overrun by seriously ill patients, remains to be seen.

"It would not surprise me," Fox said.

Renatta Signorini is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Renatta at 724-837-5374, rsignorini@triblive.com or via Twitter .