Everything you need to know about Pennsylvania's big primaries today

Many candidate signs outside the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference in Camp Hill, Pa., on April 1.
Candidate signs outside the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference in Camp Hill, Pa., on April 1. (Matt Rourke/AP)

Voters in Pennsylvania head to the polls Tuesday for this year’s primary elections, which will select the two parties’ respective nominees for governor and U.S. Senate.

Pennsylvania is a key battleground state: In 2016, Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee to carry the state since 1988; Joe Biden then won the state in 2020.

Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, is not running again due to term limits. On the Senate side, the GOP is hoping to hold on to the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Pat Toomey.

Many Democrats see Pennsylvania as their best chance at flipping a Senate seat this fall. The gubernatorial race has its own high stakes, with the new governor set to become a central player in the fight over abortion rights in the state.

Here’s everything you need to know about Tuesday’s big primaries in Pennsylvania.

Republican Senate primary

The race to replace Toomey has been one of the wildest this election cycle. Trump first endorsed Sean Parnell — an Army veteran, political commentator and former House candidate — for the seat. However, after a custody trial that revealed allegations of domestic abuse, Parnell dropped out of the race last November.

Two big-money candidates then entered the race: Dr. Mehmet Oz, the cardiothoracic surgeon and television host, and David McCormick, a hedge fund executive who served in George W. Bush’s Treasury Department.

Mehmet Oz, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, takes a selfie with an attendee at a car show in Carlisle, Pa., on May 14.
Mehmet Oz, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, takes a selfie with an attendee at a car show in Carlisle, Pa., on May 14. (Matt Rourke/AP)

Oz, who attended medical and business school in Philadelphia, relocated from New Jersey to run for the seat, while Pennsylvania native McCormick moved from Connecticut.

The two immediately began unloading millions on television ads attacking one another and attempting to establish their conservative bona fides, with a focus on gun ownership rights. Oz attacked McCormick for doing business in China, while McCormick repeatedly criticized the Ohio-born Oz for maintaining dual citizenship in the U.S. and Turkey. Oz and McCormick have also each repeatedly accused the other of being a liberal.

Both candidates lobbied hard for Trump's endorsement, which eventually went to Oz.

But the Trump endorsement has been met with skepticism by Republican voters, who gave Oz a mixed reception at a Trump rally earlier this month. This opened the door for a surprising series of polls last week that showed Kathy Barnette, a former House candidate who is a consistent presence on right-wing media, in second place.

Barnette has benefited from a viral ad in which she told the story of her own mother’s decision not to have an abortion after being raped at age 11. Barnette also has the support of state Sen. Doug Mastriano, who has been the frontrunner in the GOP governor’s race.

The recent polls resulted in a wave of anti-Barnette ads from other Republicans in the race. Trump also personally entered the fray, releasing a statement last week saying Barnette would be unable to win against a Democrat in November.

Kathy Barnette poses for a photo with two attendees at a candidate forum in Newtown, Pa., on May 11.
Kathy Barnette, a Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, poses for a photo with attendees at a candidate forum in Newtown, Pa., on May 11. (Matt Rourke/AP)

Barnette has promoted 2020 election conspiracy theories; organized buses to the Jan. 6, 2021, “Stop the Steal” rally in Washington, D.C.; marched alongside members of a right-wing extremist group to the Capitol; and has made a number of Islamophobic and homophobic comments. Additionally, she has refused to clarify elements of her biography, even to conservative outlets.

The other candidates in the race are Jeff Bartos, a Philadelphia-area real estate investor who has served as the state party’s finance chair and unsuccessfully ran for lieutenant governor in 2018, and Carla Sands, who served as Trump's ambassador to Denmark and was one of his key fundraisers in California before recently relocating back to Pennsylvania.

The latest poll in the race from Emerson College, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters last Friday and Saturday, showed Oz with 32%, Barnette with 27% and McCormick with 26%. Both Sands and Bartos were in single digits.

Because Pennsylvania does not require candidates to clear 50% support, it’s likely that the Republican Senate nominee will squeak by with a bare plurality of the vote in the crowded field.

Democratic Senate primary

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman announced his Senate run in February 2021 and has enjoyed a lead in fundraising, polling and name recognition ever since.

The former mayor of the Pittsburgh suburb of Braddock, Fetterman ran unsuccessfully for Senate in 2016 as the progressive candidate in the field, finishing third. He won the lieutenant governor’s office in 2018 and rose to prominence in late 2020 combating baseless allegations of election fraud by Trump supporters.

Lt. Gov. John Fetterman poses for a photo with 4-year-old Ryan Dow at a candidate event in Easton, Pa., on May 1.
Lt. Gov. John Fetterman poses for a photo with 4-year-old Ryan Dow at a candidate event in Easton, Pa., on May 1. (Hannah Beier/Reuters)

Fetterman earned his lead through grassroots fundraising, visits to every county in the state and blunt messaging. And he has an appearance that’s atypical in the political arena: He is closer to 7 feet than 6, bald, goateed and tattooed, and he attends most events wearing gym shorts and a hoodie.

It makes a striking contrast with his closest rival for the nomination, Rep. Conor Lamb, who ticks off every box on the checklist for a traditional Democratic candidate. A former Marine and prosecutor, he won a Pittsburgh-area seat in a 2018 special election for a district that had voted for Trump, making him an instant star in moderate Democratic circles.

While Lamb has racked up endorsements, he has struggled with prospective voters, trailing consistently by double digits in most polling. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on May 5 had him down 39 points, although he disputed the survey’s methodology on Twitter.

In an ominous sign for Lamb, both the New York Times and the Washington Post published what amounted to campaign obituaries for him last week. State legislator Malcolm Kenyatta, a young, Black, gay candidate who represents part of Philadelphia, is also running but hasn't gained much traction in the race.

While anything but a Fetterman win would be a surprise Tuesday night, there was a late twist in the race: On Sunday, the lieutenant governor announced he had suffered a stroke while campaigning in Lancaster, Pa., but said doctors told him he had suffered no cognitive damage and would be able to return to the trail after a few days of observation and rest.

The campaign said it was holding an election-night rally but Fetterman would not be in attendance; instead, his wife, Gisele, and “special guests” will deliver remarks.

Democratic gubernatorial primary

Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro speaks with the media in Philadelphia on April 5.
Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Shapiro in Philadelphia on April 5. (Matt Rourke/AP)

This is the simplest race on the board: Attorney General Josh Shapiro is running unopposed for the nomination to replace Wolf, the Democratic governor. Shapiro announced his run in October and has enjoyed fundraising success, support from key Democrats and a cleared field.

A Philadelphia-area native, Shapiro enjoyed voter support slightly above that of the Democratic presidential candidates in his statewide wins in 2016 and 2020.

Republican gubernatorial primary

The crowded primary for the Republican gubernatorial nomination appears to have settled in recent weeks, with Mastriano, the state senator and Barnette ally, emerging as the frontrunner in a recent series of polls.

A retired Army colonel elected in a 2019 special election, Mastriano positioned himself as a conservative outsider, saying that a vote for him was a vote for Trump.

Mastriano was a prominent supporter of Trump’s baseless allegations that the 2020 election was stolen from him in Pennsylvania, and he attended the Jan. 6 “Stop the Steal” rally that preceded the riot at the U.S. Capitol. He also worked with Trump’s legal team in their efforts to overturn the election.

Mastriano was subpoenaed by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 violence but said at a recent debate that he had no legal issues stemming from his presence at the rally.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano appears before a crowd at a campaign rally in Warminster, Pa
Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano at a campaign rally in Warminster, Pa., on Saturday. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)

However, democracy advocates are worried that if Mastriano were governor in 2024, he might attempt to obstruct the certification of Pennsylvania’s Electoral College votes if a Democrat won the presidential race in the state. In addition, while the entire GOP field is in favor of strict abortion laws, Mastriano introduced legislation calling for a six-week ban shortly after taking office and said he would not allow exceptions for rape, incest or the health of the mother.

His ascent has worried state party leaders who are concerned that Mastriano could be a liability in November, which in turn has led to a last-ditch effort to consolidate around an alternative candidate. State Senate leader Jake Corman, who has been running ads featuring former Trump adviser Kellyanne Conway, dropped out of the race Thursday and threw his support to former Rep. Lou Barletta. The Emerson College poll released Sunday evening showed Mastriano leading Barletta, 34% to 22%.

The concern about Mastriano's chances in November was not shared by Trump, who announced his endorsement of him two days later, saying the state senator “has revealed the Deceit, Corruption, and outright Theft of the 2020 Presidential Election, and will do something about it… He is a fighter like few others, and has been with me right from the beginning, and now I have an obligation to be with him.”

With no primary opponent, Shapiro has already begun running television ads highlighting Mastriano’s positions.

“I think it’s pretty clear he’s going to be the nominee,” Shapiro told Yahoo News last week when asked about the strategy behind the ads. “He’s ahead in every single poll, ahead by a comfortable margin, and we think there’s a clear contrast in this race, and we want to make sure we’re out in front highlighting those differences and getting a jump on the general election.”