Ethics investigation, burned books: Inside the GOP race to be MO’s top election official

The Republican race to become Missouri’s top election official is poised to be one of the most crowded, and intense, statewide races this year.

Eight Republican candidates have filed for secretary of state, which is currently held by Jay Ashcroft, a Republican who is running for governor. They include a top state lawmaker who faces an ethics investigation, a political newcomer who made headlines for burning books with a flamethrower, the leader of an abandoned campaign to overturn the state’s abortion ban and a state senator aligned with the hard-right Missouri Freedom Caucus.

The packed primary has created a pool of candidates who will each try to tap into a Missouri electorate that has grown staunchly Republican over the past decade.

“The most conservative voters are the ones who are most likely to turn out and vote in the primary,” said Jean Evans, a former executive director of the Missouri Republican Party. “Those are the people you want to appeal to.”

The race will feature Missouri House Speaker Dean Plocher; political newcomer Valentina Gomez; Greene County Clerk Shane Schoeller; Sen. Denny Hoskins; Rep. Adam Schwardron; Jamie Corley, a former congressional staffer who led a Republican effort to overturn the abortion ban; Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman; and Mike Carter, a Wentzville municipal judge.

Whoever wins the Republican nomination will face off against the Democratic nominee in the general election. Rep. Barbara Phifer from Kirkwood, Monique Williams of St. Louis and Haley Jacobson of St. Louis are the three Democrats running.

Plocher, who currently faces an investigation into allegations of ethical misconduct, and Coleman, a state senator who was previously running for congress, surprised many political observers when they jumped into the race on the last day of candidate filings late last month.

The decision came a week after Senate President Pro Tem Caleb Rowden, a Columbia Republican, dropped out of the race. Rowden’s departure left behind a candidate pool that leans more staunchly to the right.

Hoskins, for example, is a member of the hard-right Missouri Freedom Caucus that has battled with more moderate state senators for most of this year’s legislative session. Gomez, a 24-year-old real estate investor, has faced backlash for a video she posted on social media torching LGBTQ-inclusive books with a flamethrower.

Nearly all of the Republican candidates are running in the same “conservative lane,” said Gregg Keller, a GOP consultant aligned with Coleman’s campaign. He painted it as a positive.

“Being branded in a Republican primary as a moderate today is really the kiss of death,” he said. “I’d expect to see the remaining candidates try their best to avoid being labeled as such.”

Hoskins said in an interview that Republican primary voters he’s spoken to at campaign events have expressed that same sentiment.

“People are looking for conservative fighters like Josh Hawley, not what I call ‘Liz Cheney Republicans,’” he said. “That’s been an overwhelming theme no matter where we’ve been.”

Fundraising could set candidates apart

Plocher, who was previously running for lieutenant governor before pivoting to secretary of state, is leading his Republican opponents in fundraising, according to the most recent reports filed with the Missouri Ethics Commission.

Plocher’s campaign committee, Plocher for Missouri, had $542,000 at the end of December, putting him well ahead of other candidates. Hoskins’ campaign is second in fundraising, with roughly $116,600 on hand at the end of December.

But consultants who spoke with The Star painted the race as wide open in which candidates will be able to out-raise each other in the coming months. Evans said that fundraising efforts for the candidates who are still in office — Plocher, Hoskins, Coleman and Schwadron — are likely to ramp up in May and June.

By June, if a candidate has twice as much money as the next most well-funded candidate, that person has a “pretty good chance of winning,” she said.

However, a bevy of high-profile races this year, including a likely rematch between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump and a hotly-contested race for Missouri governor, could make it more challenging for candidates to fundraise.

Adding to the fundraising challenge is the lack of a “natural constituency” for the secretary of state position, said John Hancock, a long-time GOP consultant and a former executive director of the Missouri GOP. Hancock as of Tuesday was not involved in any of the campaigns.

Positions such as attorney general and lieutenant governor, both of which are on the ballot this year, tend to attract more attention, Hancock said. And some donors that could benefit from having a say in who becomes secretary of state, like key players in the securities industry, are barred from donating based on internal rules.

The race for secretary of state, which oversees the state’s elections, comes at a time when false claims about election fraud bolstered by Trump have sparked election integrity concerns among some GOP voters. Candidates may try to tap into those concerns in the coming months.

Republicans will also likely capitalize on fears about illegal immigration amid a national debate over border control efforts at the southern border with Mexico. But the candidates’ ability to use those issues to their benefit will hinge on their fundraising, said Hancock.

“If they’re able to put together a significant amount of money … that gives you the ability to turn the volume up,” he said. “That’s gonna give them an edge in the primary.”

But money won’t be the only factor. Consultants indicated that grassroots campaigning will likely play a major role in the race.

Since the 2020 election, Hancock said, traditional conservatives have been pitted against anti-establishment candidates, making grassroots outreach more important than ever. Evans agreed, and added that fundraising isn’t enough to win a campaign, particularly a crowded Republican primary.

“You can’t just do money,” Evans said. “You’ve got to have a good candidate. You’ve got to have a plan. You’ve got to work the plan, and you’ve got to have the money to fund the plan. So the money is super important, but it’s not the only thing.”

Ethics and a flamethrower

The hotly-contested race comes as Plocher, the top Republican in the Missouri House, faces a behind-closed-doors investigation by the Missouri House Ethics Committee.

The exact focus of the months-long investigation is unclear, but Plocher has faced calls to step aside as speaker as he confronts a series of scandals including revelations that he received government reimbursements for trip expenses already paid by his campaign.

He also faces scrutiny over the firing of his chief of staff, who may have been a whistleblower, and alleged threats against a top House staffer related to his push for the House to contract with an outside company to manage constituent information.

However, Evans said that Plocher’s reputation will make it hard for his opponents to paint the ethics investigation as a weakness.

“Plocher is very well-liked,” she said. “People who know him and have worked with him do not see him as a corrupt politician. I think it would be difficult for them to change posture on that.”

Plocher only vaguely acknowledged the scandals in a statement launching his campaign last month.

“The liberal press can attack me all they want,” he said in the campaign statement last month, “but as your Speaker and when I am your Secretary of State, I will never stop fighting for the people of Missouri.”

Plocher declined to comment to The Star.

Another candidate that could garner controversy among voters is Gomez, whose social media accounts are littered with anti-LGBTQ rhetoric. The video of her burning LGBTQ-themed books drew swift condemnation from social media users.

Public book burnings typically illustrate extreme censorship related to political, cultural and religious materials. They often invoke historic atrocities such as burning of Jewish texts in Nazi Germany or racist bonfires by the Ku Klux Klan.

In addition to the book burning, she posted a video in which she promised to name disgraced former Gov. Eric Greitens as a senior advisor if elected and another in which she vowed to blow up “corrupt voting machines.” In a video posted on the day before Easter, Gomez said that “Christianity is under attack by Biden and his satanic cult.”

“Darwinism will take care of these transgender things,” she said in the video. “We are one nation under God. Jesus is king and I am here to declare victory against evil.”

Gomez, in a statement provided to The Star by her campaign, falsely claimed that she did not get any criticism for the video of her burning books. She instead claimed she received “enormous support” from various people including Jordan Peterson, a conservative-leaning internet personality, and Jesse Watters, a Fox News television host.

“I have nothing against the gay community, you want to be gay? Fine, be gay, just don’t do it around children,” the statement said. “I will protect children against ideologies, indoctrination and grooming from pedophiles and ‘allies’ of the lgbtq community. The rainbow bullies and pedophiles that exposed themselves in the comments, and at my home don’t phase me, I have Jesus Christ and the Second Amendment by my side.”

Keller said Gomez’s social media strategy was eye-catching, but one that’s “calling her judgment into question.”

“Candidates who recognize that Republican primary voters have very little trust in our systems and institutions and government now are speaking the language of Republican voters,” he said. “That in and of itself is not enough. You need to have the right message, but you also need to be a credible messenger.”