Ernst to run against Cotton for Senate GOP No. 3 this fall

Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst is running for Senate Republican Conference chair, setting up a blockbuster fall race against Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton for the No. 3 position in party leadership in the next Congress.

In an interview Sunday afternoon, the second-term GOP senator said she received encouragement from colleagues about running for higher positions in the party leadership. But after deliberating for about a week, Ernst decided that the conference chair position is the right fit; she would be the highest-ranking Republican female senator in 50 years if she wins.

“Absolutely, this is winnable for me. And we shouldn't be afraid of elections for heaven's sake,” Ernst said of the contest. “I’ve never been the establishment's chosen candidate. I've always been that outsider.”

The Iowan’s decision is a natural progression given her current role as Republican Policy Committee chair, a job that’s No. 4 in the GOP hierarchy. She could have chosen to stay in that job, but movement above her opened up the job of the party’s chief messenger.

Current Conference Chair John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) is facing term limits at the end of the year and is running for party whip, part of a larger shake-up amid Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s decision to step down as party leader after this year. Sens. John Thune (R-S.D.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) are running to succeed McConnell.

Ernst said those moves helped her recognize there’s a “new era” in her party — and she wants to be part of it.

“Republicans want to see someone that doesn't just get told how to vote, but someone that can be an independent thinker and provide a voice to reason and to truth … I’m ready to take that on,” Ernst said.

The highest-ranking female senator currently in GOP leadership, Ernst is continuing the tradition of Iowa Republican colleague Chuck Grassley, holding town halls and visiting her state's 99 counties once a year. She proudly says she doesn’t need survey results to tell her what constituents are thinking: “I’m not paying a lot of pollsters. I've got the pulse of Iowa.”

The Cotton v. Ernst race sets up a tough decision for GOP colleagues. Both senators are veterans, close to McConnell and from the same 2014 class of GOP senators known as the “bear den” — a group of Republicans who gave the GOP its biggest majority in years.

Cotton got in the race first, and last week Ernst said Cotton declined to give her a heads up about his plans. But the two have now discussed a leadership election that will make two close friends into rivals — at least for the votes of their colleagues. Ernst said that it will “not be a big deal” between them.

Though Cotton and Ernst are both younger GOP senators and share several key attributes, there are substantive and stylistic differences. Cotton is more reserved in the daily churn of the Capitol, often declining to comment when approached by reporters, while Ernst has spoken at weekly leadership press conferences for years due to her leadership jobs and even uses game show props on the Senate floor to illustrate her points.

Ernst stayed neutral in the party's presidential primary well past the Iowa Caucus but endorsed former President Donald Trump last week after former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley dropped her bid for the GOP nomination. Cotton endorsed Trump in January.

And Cotton opposes more of the bipartisan deals in Congress, including the foreign aid package passed by the Senate in February and several of the big cross-aisle deals during the first two years of Joe Biden’s presidency. Ernst supported the foreign aid package and its Ukraine funding, and also backed a gun safety law and a marriage equality bill two years ago, though she opposed a bipartisan infrastructure law.

“I take a very honest view at whatever legislation is put in front of us,” Ernst explained. “There are those in our conference that don't want to have those hard conversations, because they're hard to message. But I'm not afraid.”

Ernst's decisions suggests she could be in the Senate for the long haul, rather than joining an administration as a Cabinet secretary or other high-profile position if Trump wins the election. Ernst won a tough re-election campaign in 2020 by more than 6 points over Democrat Theresa Greenfield and is up for reelection in 2026.

“A number of colleagues may look ahead and say, ‘You know what, I've been a great supporter of Trump. I want to move into a different position,’” Ernst said. “That's not really been part of my thinking. My thinking is giving a voice to my Senate conference. And a little bit selfishly, it's giving voice to Iowans.”