Election Night: What we know and what we don't know
Election Night is in full swing, but it’s looking more like it’ll be Election Week.
With a global pandemic and record-shattering turnout, it’s becoming increasingly likely results won’t be clear until hours or even days later than usual.
The prolonged count only adds to a chaotic election season, mired with concerns over a surge in absentee ballots and numerous legal challenges. A lot remains unknown around one of the most anxious days of a tumultuous year.
Here’s what we know and don’t know about Election Day 2020:
What we know:
The candidates are speaking up
Biden and Trump broke their Election Night silence, both declaring themselves on the path to victory. Biden addressed supporters saying he was optimistic about winning key states like Pennsylvania. Trump soon after sent a series of tweets declaring himself “up BIG” and repeating false claims of Democrats trying to “steal” the election from him (Twitter later flagged the tweet as misleading). He has repeatedly cast doubt in the legitimacy of the election throughout his campaign.
Trump wins Florida and Ohio
Trump triumphed in Florida and Ohio, repeating his 2016 victory in the key battlegrounds. Florida is a crucial state for Trump’s reelection efforts, and he heavily invested in the state in the twilight of his campaign. Trump and Biden were also neck and neck in Ohio polls leading up to Election Day. Trump also triumphed in Iowa, while Biden repeated his party’s victory in Minnesota.
Georgia Senate race heads to runoff
Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler will face off Democrat Raphael Warnock in a runoff for a Georgia Senate seat in January. Neither candidate won 50 percent of the vote in the state’s special election primary. A runoff was a near certainty, with 20 names on the ballot. Rep. Doug Collins, an ardent Trump supporter, conceded to Loeffler on Tuesday night.
Democrats are poised to hold onto the House
Democrats appear set to gain three seats in the House, keeping hold of the majority they won in 2018. But the Senate remains in flux with two seats flipping, resulting in no net gains for either party. Democrat and former presidential candidate John Hickenlooper beat Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in Colorado, and Republican Tommy Tuberville defeated Democrat Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama.
Most states have been called in the presidential race but key battlegrounds remain unknown
From Illinois to California, most states have been called in the presidential race. Most of these states offered few surprises, and the crucial battlegrounds — including Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin — remain too close to call.
Some votes will get counted later than planned
A handful of counties in Texas, North Carolina and Georgia are letting a few precincts stay open later than planned due to various unforeseen issues. Absentee ballots in Fulton County — the largest in Georgia — will face a delay due to a burst water pipe. Closing delays are routine in every election to accommodate last minute problems, from faulty equipment to a poll worker oversleeping.
The election ran pretty smoothly
Despite fears of election interference, technical failures and general chaos, Election Day has been largely smooth sailing. There have been a few reported snafus, including misinformation campaigns and equipment failures, but they have been exceedingly rare.
About 100 million Americans voted before Election Day
With a record number of mail-in ballots expected due to the coronavirus pandemic and a rush to early voting amid concerns over the postal service, a remarkable 100 million Americans already voted before Tuesday. For reference, about 138 million Americans voted in the 2016 presidential election in total.
What we don’t know:
When the next president will be declared
The election will likely stretch deep into the week and both candidates continue polling closely next to each other across the country. Still, both Trump and Biden have maintained their optimism about winning crucial states and remain in flux.
When key battlegrounds will finish counting ballots
Ballots in Pennsylvania, Georgia and Wisconsin will likely not be counted until long after Election Night, with more than 2.5 million absentee ballots received in Pennsylvania alone. Those results could drastically sway the course of the election in those states, particularly with Democrats sending in nearly three times as many absentee ballots in Pennsylvania than Republicans.
Just how bad are the Postal Service problems
News of a sub-optimally functioning Postal Service caused serious fears about the efficacy of mail-in voting. And the drama has carried into Election Day. A federal judge ordered the Postal Service to send inspectors to check for any remaining ballots not yet delivered in a number of swing states as their deadlines for accepting ballots approach.
How much has misinformation influenced the election
Misinformation has only expanded in scale since the 2016 election, and the shenanigans seem to be targeting voters directly. Election officials and voters alike have been reporting robocalls across the country, telling them to either stay home or vote on the wrong day.
Will Trump concede if he loses
Trump has repeatedly refused to entertain the possibility of losing and famously declined to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should Biden win. It’s unknown how the president will respond if the former vice president prevails as a clear winner, but he did acknowledge Tuesday that he’d declare himself winner “only when there’s a victory.”
“There’s no reason to play games,” Trump said.
