Election analysis: Knox County continues to roll with Donald Trump, but he's lost steam

Knox County’s GOP presidential primary results could not have been less surprising. And while Donald Trump hasn’t officially secured the party’s nomination, don’t tell that to the 68% of Republicans that turned out for him here.

Knox News set out to see whether the county has become more or less aligned with Trump since he first ran in 2016. We compared local results with the rest of Tennessee.

This is a narrow question since it's comparing primary results (not the general elections) and it's a different quest than finding which way the county is leaning overall (although results in recent general elections have shown Knox County is becoming less conservative over time).

2016 was a contested GOP presidential primary. 2024? Not so much.

Getting the answer is not as simple as comparing results from the last true GOP presidential primary in 2016. This is a different political world.

While Trump was on his way to securing the nomination by Super Tuesday in 2016, he wasn’t the overwhelming favorite like he is now, winning early primary states with ease. The competition was tough with five or six other real competitors in 2016.

Trump won Knox County in the 2016 primary with 32%, edging Sen. Marco Rubio with 28%. Sen. Ted Cruz finished a distant third with 21%. John Kasich (7.76%) and Ben Carson (7.36%) were far out of contention.

This year, Nikki Haley was the last one standing against Trump. She conceded Wednesday morning after winning just a single primary on Super Tuesday.

So, strictly comparing 2016 results to 2024 results won’t tell you much. While Trump is wildly popular here, it’d be a stretch to say his popularity has doubled in eight years (32% in 2016 vs. 68% in 2024).

What does the data say?

So is Knox County more likely to vote for Trump now or not? This is what the percentage-point change data shows about how Tennessee voted for a candidate compared to how Knox County voted.

Tennessee overall vs. Knox County (2016)

• Trump 39% vs. 32% (+7%)

• Rubio 21% vs. 28% (-7%)

• Cruz 25% vs. 21% (+4%)

Tennessee overall vs. Knox County (2024)

• Trump 77% vs. 68% (+9%)

• Haley 20% vs. 27% (-7%)

In 2016, Knox County was 7 percentage points less likely to vote for Trump than the rest of the state. That figure has grown 2 percentage points in the eight years since.

In other words, Knox County was already less Trump country than the state as a whole. That has accelerated, at least slightly, since 2016.

What does this mean?

Trump is still clearly popular in Knox County, but Tuesday's results are another sign that the kind of moderate Republicans who voted overwhelmingly for Bill Haslam and Lamar Alexander still exist.

Assuming he's the GOP nominee, Trump will almost certainly win Knox County in this fall's presidential election. But if this trend holds, all of the data points to him receiving less than the 56% of the vote he received against Joe Biden in 2020.

"More and more Knox County voters are rejecting MAGA extremism by the day," Jack Vaughan, Knox County Democratic Party spokesperson, told Knox News. "Tuesday’s results prove once again that Trump’s GOP isn’t playing well in Knoxville, and local voters are headed in a different direction."

For his part, Knox County Republican Party Chair Buddy Burkhardt isn't concerned in the least. “I’m not surprised by Trump’s win," he said. "I’m not surprised by (how) it happened and I’m excited for what the future holds.”

Other counties compared with Knox

In results from the state's three other metro areas, Davidson County grew much less likely to vote for Trump, compared to Knox County, while Shelby County became more. Hamilton and Knox Counties remain nearly identical.

Davidson County vs. Knox County (2016)

• Trump 31% vs. 32% (-1%)

• Rubio 29% vs. 28% (+1%)

• Cruz 22% vs. 21 % (+1%)

Davidson County vs. Knox County (2024)

• Trump 61% vs. 68% (-7%)

• Haley 36% vs. 27% (+9%)

Shelby County vs. Knox County (2016)

• Trump 30% vs. 32% (-2%)

• Rubio 26% vs. 28% (-2%)

• Cruz 29% vs. 21% (+8%)

Shelby County vs. Knox County (2024)

• Trump 71% vs. 68% (+3%)

• Haley 27% vs. 27% (even)

Hamilton County vs. Knox County (2016)

• Trump 33% vs. 32% (+1%)

• Rubio 28% vs. 28% (even)

• Cruz 19% vs. 21 % (-2%)

Hamilton County vs. Knox County (2024)

• Trump 67% vs. 68% (-1%)

• Haley 29% vs. 27% (+2%)

The county where Trump was strongest in Tennessee

The two Tennessee counties that most overwhelmingly voted for Trump in the 2016 primary were Clay and Macon. The counties, which neighbor each other along the Kentucky line in Middle Tennessee, both gave Trump 57% of their votes in 2016.

Clay County vs. Knox County (2016)

• Trump 57% vs. 32% (+25%)

• Rubio 14% vs. 28% (-14%)

• Cruz 17% vs. 21 % (-4%)

Clay County vs. Knox County (2024)

• Trump 89% vs. 68% (+21%)

• Haley 10% vs. 27% (-17%)

Macon County vs. Knox County (2016)

• Trump 57% vs. 32% (+25%)

• Rubio 9% vs. 28% (-19%)

• Cruz 24% vs. 21% (+3%)

Macon County vs. Knox County (2024)

• Trump 92% vs. 68% (+24%)

• Haley 6% vs. 27% (-21%)

Tyler Whetstone is an investigative reporter focused on accountability journalism. Connect with Tyler by emailing him at tyler.whetstone@knoxnews.com. Follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @tyler_whetstone.

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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Knox County presidential primary results: Trump versus Haley