Is an El Niño winter coming to New Mexico? Weekend storm forecast in San Juan County

Mike Easterling, Farmington Daily Times
·3 min read

With San Juan County expected to see stormy conditions this weekend for the first time since late summer, the tide finally could be turning toward cooler temperatures and more precipitation in the Four Corners, weather forecasters say.

The National Weather Service office in Albuquerque have been saying for months that the onset of an El Niño weather pattern in the eastern Pacific Ocean could improve the prospects for a wet winter in the American Southwest. But with temperatures remaining persistently warmer than average, and little to no moisture falling from the sky, conditions across the region this fall have provided little affirmation of that assessment.

That could start to change as soon as this weekend, said David Craft, a weather service meteorologist in Albuquerque.

“The storm track’s about to get more active,” Craft said, noting that much of San Juan County stands to see a decent chance of rain throughout the weekend. “We’ve had lots of record-breaking warmth, in the Northwest Plateau, especially.”

San Juan County residents aren't exactly expected to get a taste of winter this weekend, but the forecast does call for a change to cooler, wetter weather over the long term.
San Juan County residents aren't exactly expected to get a taste of winter this weekend, but the forecast does call for a change to cooler, wetter weather over the long term.

Chance of above average rainfall, snow is high this winter

Craft said that while this weekend’s storm system is not expected to be a strong one, it likely will be only the first in a series of disturbances that should come this way in the weeks ahead. That is exactly what the long-term forecast for the area shows, he said.

The 2023-24 Winter Outlook posted on the National Weather Service’s Albuquerque office website shows that while the chances of New Mexico as a whole seeing above-normal precipitation are only 55% for December, January and February, the situation is different for the Northwest Plateau, which includes San Juan County. That forecast model shows a 60% chance of above-normal precipitation, along with a 27% chance of normal precipitation.

The chances of the region seeing below-normal precipitation are only 13%, according to the weather service.

  • In January, Craft said, confidence is high the northwest will experience near to above-average precipitation and slightly below-average temperatures.

  • In February, confidence is high the region will see slightly above-average precipitation and near-average temperatures.

But Craft cautioned against folks reading too much into that.

“It’s above average, but we don’t necessarily know how much above average,” he said.

The early results likely will be very revealing, he said, noting that storm systems tend to fall into a prolonged pattern this time of year. That means if the Four Corners starts seeing significant rain or snow over the next few weeks, it likely could continue to see a good deal of moisture for the remainder of the 90-day period, he said.

But the reverse also could happen, Craft said, referring to the possibility that the prevailing storm track could get pushed too far south to do the Four Corners area any good. If that happens, southern New Mexico would be the beneficiary, and the northwest would remain mostly dry.

Those kinds of conditions are something San Juan County residents have been contending with for several months. Michael Anand, another National Weather Service meteorologist in Albuquerque, said only 5.52 inches of moisture had been recorded by Nov. 16 at the Four Corners Regional Airport, well off the normal pace of 6.86 inches for that date.

Anand noted that, if not for an abnormally wet first quarter of this year in San Juan County, that figure likely would be much worse.

“Most of that fell in January, February and March,” he said. “In fact, more than half of it did.”

Conditions across San Juan County have deteriorated steadily since late spring, when the moisture stopped coming, Craft said. The U.S. Drought Monitor shows that more than 99% of the county now is locked in severe or extreme drought, the third- and second-worst categories. As little as three months ago, that figure was only a little more than 12%.

Mike Easterling can be reached at 505-564-4610 or measterling@daily-times.com. Support local journalism with a digital subscription: http://bit.ly/2I6TU0e.

This article originally appeared on Farmington Daily Times: What an El Niño winter could mean for San Juan County, New Mexico