How early do tropical cyclones develop? Has there been hurricane in January? What to know
All early indications are that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be a busy one.
The combination of La Niña and record warm water temperatures are expected to bring an above-average number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin, which consists of the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, but storms — including hurricanes — have formed much earlier than the official start of the season.
15 tropical cyclones have formed before the start of hurricane season over the past 20 years
Since 2003, there have been 15 tropical cyclones that have formed before June 1.
The only years a tropical cyclone has not formed before the official start of hurricane season over the past 20 years were in 2022, 2014, 2013, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2006, 2005 and 2004.
While most pre-season storms developed in May, there have been two occasions over the last 20 years a tropical cyclone has formed in the Atlantic basin in January, including Hurricane Alex in 2016.
Jan. 16-17, 2023: Unnamed subtropical storm.
May 22-23, 2021: Tropical Storm Ana.
May 16-19, 2020: Tropical Storm Arthur.
May 27-28, 2020: Tropical Storm Bertha.
May 20-21, 2019: Subtropical Storm Andrea.
May 25-31, 2018: Tropical Storm Alberto.
April 19-21, 2017: Tropical Storm Arlene.
Jan. 12-15, 2016: Hurricane Alex
May 27-June 4, 2016: Tropical Storm Bonnie
May 8-11, 2015: Tropical Storm Ana.
May 19-22, 2012: Tropical Storm Alberto.
May 26-30, 2012: Tropical Storm Beryl.
May 31-June 1, 2008: Tropical Storm Arthur.
May 9-11, 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea.
April 20-24, 2003: Tropical Storm Ana.
How often do named tropical cyclones develop in June?
Looking back over the last 20 years, 26 named storms have developed during the first month of the Atlantic hurricane season.
There have been six occasions over the same period when no tropical cyclones formed in June: 2004, 2008, 2009, 2014, 2018 and 2019.
June 1-3: Tropical Storm Arlene.
June 19-24: Tropical Storm Bret.
June 22-26: Tropical Storm Cindy.
June 5-6: Tropical Storm Alex.
June 14-15: Tropical Storm Bill.
June 19-22: Tropical Storm Claudette.
June 27-29: Tropical Storm Danny.
June 30-July 9: Hurricane Elsa.
June 1-9: Tropical Storm Cristobal.
June 22-24: Tropical Storm Dolly.
June 19-20: Tropical Storm Bret.
June 20-23: Tropical Storm Cindy.
June 5-7: Tropical Storm Colin
June 19-21: Tropical Storm Danielle
June 16-18: Tropical Storm Bill.
June 5-7: Tropical Storm Andrea.
June 17-20: Tropical Storm Barry.
June 18-22: Hurricane Chris.
June 23-27: Tropical Storm Debby.
June 28-July 1: Tropical Storm Arlene.
June 25-July 2: Hurricane Alex.
June 1-2: Tropical Storm Barry.
June 10-14: Tropical Storm Alberto.
June 8-13: Tropical Storm Arlene.
June 28-30: Tropical Storm Bret.
June 29-July 2: Tropical Storm Bill.
Why the early prediction for a very active Atlantic hurricane season?
About 80 percent of storms that become tropical storms or hurricanes start between the western coast of Africa and the Caribbean, Porter said.
A warming atmosphere is increasing water temperatures across the Atlantic.
Ocean temperatures in February were already as warm as they historically have been in mid-July, said Jon Porter, AccuWeather chief meteorologist. "That's a big concern."
In 2024, the season "could start early and end late," Porter said. "Early season storms are a threat this year. Whenever there is warm water, watch upper lows developing close to the U.S. coastline."
During an El Niño year, hurricanes generally decrease since wind shear tears apart developing storms in the Atlantic. But 2023 was the fourth most active season since 1950. The reason were record high ocean temperatures.
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season had 20 named storms. Seven were hurricanes and three intensified to major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one where sustained winds are at least 111 mph, making it a Category 3 or higher hurricane.
Hurricane Idalia was the only hurricane that made landfall in the U.S. in 2023, coming ashore near Keaton Beach as a Category 3 storm. It caused a storm surge inundation of 7 to 12 feet and widespread rainfall flooding in Florida and throughout the Southeast.
What are early forecasts for the 2024 hurricane season?
Here's what we can expect in 2024, Porter said, adding "everything depends on how strong La Niña becomes as we head into peak of hurricane season."
An above-average number of named storms. And that could be well above average depending on the strength of La Niña during the peak of hurricane season between August and October.
Warm water means an elevated risk of rapid intensification and major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are those Category 3 and higher. A Category 3 hurricane starts with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph.
A great risk for landfall in Texas and Louisiana. "Those states have not been targeted in recent years, but that may change this year," Porter said.
How many tropical cyclones form during an average hurricane season?
An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to the National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service.
This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: 2024 Atlantic hurricane season: Tropical cyclones before June 1
