Early results show likely rematch in closely-watched Central Valley congressional race — but it’s still too close to call

National Democrats were concerned about getting locked out of a left-leaning Central Valley congressional district that had two Democrats and two Republicans on the primary ballot. —

Yet early results suggest a Republican and Democrat will advance, setting up a toss-up November rematch. But it’s still too early to be sure.

Democrats are desperately trying to flip California’s 22nd Congressional District, one of the most Democratic-leaning districts in the country currently held by a House Republican — Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, who has been in Congress for the better part of a decade.

In the lead up to March 5, national Democrats threw their weight behind former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, who came within a 3% margin of Valadao in the November 2022 congressional election. But Salas faced his a challenge from within his own party, State Sen. Melissa Hurtado, D-Bakersfield, raising concerns that Democrats could be locked out of the primary altogether.

A Republican lockout seemed less likely, but not impossible. Republican Chris Mathys, a rancher and businessman who is an ardent Donald Trump supporter, challenged Valadao over his vote to impeach the former president.

If a Democrat and Republican advance in the 22nd, the November race is a toss-up, according to nonpartisan election analysts. This and other 2024 battleground races will determine which party holds the House majority. Who holds House power in 2025 could go either way, analysts say.

It appears that the toss-up rematch will happen, though it’s still early in the vote-counting process. Valadao was leading with 33.6% of the votes counted Tuesday night. Salas was following with 29.7%. But only 22% of the votes had been counted, according to the Associated Press, as of 10 p.m. Pacific Time Tuesday.

Mathys had 19.5% and Hurtado had 17.2%.

The 22nd, a Latino-majority voting district, includes in most of Kings County and parts of Kern and Tulare counties. Voters here backed President Joe Biden over Trump by 13 percentage points in 2020. There are far more Democrats than Republicans registered to vote; 60% of voters are Latino and 36% are young.

But a tendency toward low turnout in the district — and what is expected to be historically low turnout statewide this election — has meant that local races are disproportionately determined by older, white, conservative voters.

Polls closed at 8 p.m. Pacific Time. Early results started coming in after that. But it will take weeks before all ballots are counted — and may take that long to determine who will advance to November.

This is a developing story; check back with sacbee.com for updates.