Early primary turnout light in Fresno County. Could mail-in ballots swing close races?

More than 75,000 vote-by-mail ballots for Tuesday’s primary election were returned to the Fresno County Elections Division as of Monday, and comprise nearly all of the early results that will count toward the final results that likely won’t officially be certified until later this month.

But that amounts to less than 15% of Fresno County’s 510,000 registered voters who received vote-by-mail ballots in early February. That’s a far cry from the historical average of about 40% voter turnout in presidential primary elections, County Clerk/Registrar of Voters James Kus said.

Through Monday, more than 54,000 ballots had been returned through the U.S. Postal Service, while almost 22,000 more had been dropped by voters into drop boxes that had been scattered at locations throughout the city and county of Fresno.

Voters had until 8 p.m. Tuesday to either vote in person at one of more than 50 vote centers or to deliver their ballots to one of more than 60 drop boxes. Ballots returned by mail needed to be postmarked by Tuesday, and must be received by March 12, to be processed and counted toward the final results.

What won’t be known for days is how many late vote-by-mail ballots are in the hands of the U.S. Postal Service that are postmarked in time but yet to be delivered to county election officials. In particularly close races, big swings in in-person voting and late vote-by-mail ballots could sway the contests from what was initially reported in the earliest returns.

Beyond the presidential primaries to select the nominees for the November general election, voters in Fresno County and throughout the central San Joaquin Valley also cast votes for U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, as well as various city council and board of supervisor races.

In Fresno, that includes the contest for Fresno mayor, three of seven seats on the Fresno City Council, and three of five seats on the Fresno County Board of Supervisors. Fresno County voters were also asked to decide the fate of three countywide ballot measures: Measure A, to keep elections for county sheriff and district attorney in non-presidential election years; Measure B, providing the county board of supervisors the authority to name or change names of geographic features and communities in unincorporated areas of Fresno County; and Measure E, establishing a new 0.25% sales tax for facilities improvements and scholarships at California State University, Fresno.