An early first look at the St. Louis Cardinals’ likely Opening Day roster

With just two weeks to go until the St. Louis Cardinals take the field at Dodger Stadium to open the 2024 season, the races for the various opening day roster spots are largely coming down to questions about health. With one top prospect forcing his way into the conversation, there are tough conversations yet to be had.

A lot can still change in 10 days’ worth of games, but this is a best guess at how the pieces are likely to be assembled on March 28.

Catchers

Willson Contreras, Iván Herrera

The simplest spot on the roster to shake out is behind the plate. Herrera started his year with a blistering Caribbean Series which has largely carried over into spring, and looks to be fully ready to take on the backup role.

Keeping Contreras fresh will be of renewed focus this season, as last year’s brief sojourn away from the plate was a natural limiter which held him to 89 games started in that spot. That number is likely to tick up, though perhaps not as much as fans may expect. Herrera will play, and Contreras will have opportunities as the designated hitter against especially tough lefties given the heavily left-handed makeup of the position players.

Starting Pitchers

Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn, Steven Matz, Miles Mikolas, Zack Thompson

The first question to answer around the rotation is whether Sonny Gray will be sufficiently recovered from a mild hamstring strain to start on opening day. His progress is promising, and the fact that he didn’t have to restart a throwing program puts him in a far better position than he otherwise would have been.

Still, the only incentive to put the hammer down and rush back would be for the team to show off a fancy new toy, which they will likely have opportunities to do further down the roster. Gray could still return in time to, perhaps, start the home opener a week later, giving him his moment and allowing the team to take a cautious track. A backdated injured list stint still seems the most logical outcome.

That leaves a fifth starter needed for the first road trip, and Thompson is out-distancing the pack. A year after being shifted to the bullpen, he’s reclaimed his right to a starting spot, even if as a consequence it may mean more time in Memphis for him this year than is strictly necessary.

Relievers

Ryan Fernandez, Giovanny Gallegos, Ryan Helsley, Andrew Kittredge, Keynan Middleton, Riley O’Brien, Andre Pallante, JoJo Romero

At the outset of spring, the bullpen had five guaranteed slots (Gallegos, Helsley, Kittredge, Middleton, Romero) and three openings for competition. The contours of that competition have shifted slightly due to injury – one of Thompson or Matthew Liberatore seemed destined here, for instance – but mostly held firm.

Pallante has the second-most appearances for any Cardinals pitcher over the last two seasons behind Gallegos. He had competition for his spot from Liberatore and John King, but the latter two have put up underwhelming results and the righty ground ball machine again becomes the bullpen’s de facto second lefty behind Romero.

O’Brien’s repertoire has dazzled from a measurable perspective and shown well in game action, allowing just one run and striking out five in his first six innings. Fernandez, a Rule 5 pick, must be offered back to the Boston Red Sox if he doesn’t make the team, and his in-game line is nearly identical to O’Brien’s.

Both will need to show well in the spring’s final weeks to hold off the likes of Liberatore and Nick Robertson, but both hold spots for now.

Infielders

Nolan Arenado, Matt Carpenter, Brandon Crawford, Brendan Donovan, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn

The additions of both Carpenter and Crawford took the drama out of the infield competition, and this group of seven should be largely static throughout the season, pending health and performance.

Doling out playing time at second base will come with its challenges, as Donovan is seemingly the superior defender to Gorman but is still recovering from internal brace surgery in his throwing elbow and, paradoxically, may well find himself roped into the outfield picture.

Winn is not yet in any danger of losing significant playing time to Crawford, but he may need to start strong at the plate to avoid some erosion. The Cardinals are in far better managerial hands than they were in 2014 when an obviously-spent Mark Ellis blocked Kolten Wong for stretches, and they would be wise to remember that lesson.

Outfielders

Alec Burleson, Dylan Carlson, Victor Scott II, Jordan Walker

Lars Nootbaar’s broken ribs have opened the door to one of the most intriguing roster possibilities of spring, and Scott is bursting through. Wednesday’s game was the most recent example of Scott’s ability to alter games with his speed. He led off with a routine grounder to short which became a base hit, and then advanced to second speedily enough on a grounder to prevent a double play. That’s finding a huge advantage in what otherwise would’ve been routine outs.

He’s also the best defensive option in center, which is an extremely important consideration for a team which saw a massive erosion in its outfield defense in 2023. A season-opening road trip to spacious outfields in Los Angeles and San Diego will make coverage critical. Carlson is a solid defender, but he doesn’t cover enough ground to make up for playing between Burleson and Walker in the corners.

The team’s best alignment without Nootbaar, undoubtedly, is Scott in center between Walker and a Burleson/Carlson platoon, likely weighted in Carlson’s favor. For as much as has been written about the necessity of a hot start, even a cautious Cardinals front office should seemingly be willing to give the manager his desired tools to succeed. Scott is at the top of the list of those tools.

If they do opt for the conservative route, Michael Siani’s ability to play center would secure him the last spot on the roster by default.

Injured List

SP Sonny Gray, CF Tommy Edman, LF Lars Nootbaar

Gray is likely to be first back of the three, closer to Opening Day than most would have dared hope after he felt a tug in his hamstring 10 days ago. Nootbaar may not be far behind him, though history suggests fractured ribs are more like a month-long injury than the two weeks floated by the team.

Edman, for the moment, is out of sight, out of mind. Until he can swing a bat without pain – or swing against live pitching at all – it’s difficult to draw up anything resembling a timeline for his return from offseason wrist surgery. That surgery went from so minor as to be forgotten to be disclosed to, now, threatening to eat up a big chunk of the regular season. Whoops!