Donald Trump Isn't Blowing 2016 for the GOP

There are a few things apparently left to be said after last week's debate in Cleveland, Ohio between 10 of the top tier GOP presidential candidates.

First, Donald Trump has not hijacked the Republican Party, nor will he. The departure from his orbit of uber-consultant Roger Stone is the real beginning of the end. Trump will continue to make noise but, without Stone around to guide the otherwise inexperienced campaign team through the difficulties of running a real presidential campaign -- as opposed to what he is doing now -- then things will hit the rocks sooner or later.

The polls indicating he is still way out in front post-debate are specious. They employ a different methodology than most analysts are used to and have yet to be proven out. His support may be at this time significant but is it solid and strong? There's really no way to tell, since a lot of it seems to come from populist types who typically sit the race out when it's establishment A's candidate against establishment B's in the general election.

Unlike the other candidates in either party, the bilious billionaire from the five boroughs is, like him or hate him, a genuine cultural icon. People are listening to him because they know him from and in other contexts and have some degree of confidence in what he's saying. These same people are on purpose turning a deaf ear to the professional politicians in the presidential race because they blame those politicians for bringing about the ruination of the country.

SEE: [Editorial Cartoons on Donald Trump]

They may cheer when Trumps says "Build a wall to stop the illegals coming in from Mexico," but they might just as likely cheer as loud if he said "The New York Mets are going to win the World Series."

This is both silly and sick. At a time when Iran may soon get at least one nuclear weapon, the Islamic State group is conducting mass executions of Christians, the Chinese stock market is in free fall, and former Secretary of State and Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Rodham Clinton's email server is the subject of an FBI criminal investigation, the biggest political story in the country -- perhaps the biggest story period -- is a national conversation about whether Trump crossed the line when talking about Fox News' Megyn Kelly.

If the goal of the candidates in Thursday's debate was to make a cogent case for why they should be president and how their ideas for bringing back the economy and the country were better than anyone else's --- something the debate format worked against like Grant at Vicksburg -- then Trump was not the winner. Give that prize to Carly Fiorina, who wasn't even on the 9 p.m. stage.

If, on the other hand, the goal was to have people talking about you as much if not more coming out of the debate than they were going in, then Trump wins, hands down, with Kelly coming in a close second. All this business about people being encouraged in social media to stand with Megyn or back "The Donald" does is ask people to make a false and meaningless choice; after all , can't both of them of them be open to legitimate criticism for the way they conducted themselves during and after the debate?

SEE: [Editorial Cartoons on the 2016 Presidential Elections]

One thing is for sure: The focus on Trump's remarks has neutralized any discussion of the several significant errors of fact Kelly made while questioning other candidates about real issues. They were mistakes Chris Wallace, Bret Baier, Fred Barnes, Brit Hume, Michael Barone, Nina Easton and others who appear regularly on Fox would not have made. All the noise that Trump has kicked up has done her an unexpected favor by shunting to one side any real questions about her competence -- and "she was too hard on the candidates" does not count as a credible observation.

The GOP solons who fear Trump is blowing it for them need to take a deep breath, relax, and find something else upon which to fixate. The people who have reacted most harshly to what Trump had to say in the run up to debate No. 1 were not going to be with the GOP candidate in November 2016. The people who are applauding the loudest weren't going to be with the GOP candidate in 2016 until Trump got them motivated and excited about the race. Up until Stone quit Trump's campaign there was a chance he could have emerged as a substantive force with real ideas and a bold agenda to bring America back. Originally he had tapped into something; now it's just noise.

Hopefully, in the next debate, the moderator will spend more time asking former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush about education reform, asking Sen. Ted Cruz about the constitutional limits on the presidency, asking Ohio Gov. John Kasich about the pathway to bringing federal spending under control, asking Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul about the economic impact of replacing the current tax structure with a pro-growth flat tax, asking former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee about the need for criminal justice reform and asking Donald Trump a lot less about everything but especially the things he's tweeted. The candidates did all agree to the rules, and largely abided by them, but they need to be forceful, to be presidential the next time out and seize control of the proceedings and the agenda. If a moderator wants to be the main focus of a political debate let him or her file for public office and get up on the stage.

Peter Roff is a contributing editor at U.S. News & World Report. Formerly a senior political writer for United Press International, he's now affiliated with several public policy organizations, including Let Freedom Ring and Frontiers of Freedom. His writing has appeared in National Review, Fox News' opinion section, The Daily Caller, Politico and elsewhere. Follow him on Twitter @PeterRoff.