Does the SCOTUS Decision Matter for November? Maybe Not

Let’s dispense with the high-minded legal and social analysis and proceed directly to what matters in the N2K Presidential Race memo: Good or bad for President Obama and Mitt Romney?

Good for Obama, probably. Bad for Romney, probably.

Good for the president because the verdict by the Court, delivered and validated by a George W. Bush appointee, puts the stamp of approval of the highest legal authority in the land on his signature legislation, and anything else would’ve dredged up all the old, tired “legitimacy” arguments.

And some good for Romney, too, because now Republicans have one means left to rid themselves of the animating spirit behind the tea party’s rise in 2009 and 2010: the ballot box. They’ll vote with their feet, the base will.

“I think this is going to elect Mitt Romney the 45th president of the United States,” Rep. Phil Gingrey, R-Ga., told CNN after the decision, describing himself as “shocked.”

But the voters who matter aren’t in Gingrich’s district, up against the Alabama border. They’re in Nevada and Michigan and Missouri and Pennsylvania. And most of those folks weren’t on SCOTUSblog or Twitter or glued to one of the cable networks that botched the news this morning.

Their eye-twitches are still more about whether they’ll have a job before November, or after.

-- Jim O’Sullivan
@JOSullivanNatJo

NATIONAL JOURNAL’S PRESIDENTIAL RACE REPORT

Even After Big Victory, Health Care Future Uncertain NEW!
[National Journal, 6/28/12] Obama’s stunning victory on Thursday in the Supreme Court is a surprising validation of his dogged refusal to give ground on his 2008 campaign promise to provide health insurance for the millions of Americans who live in daily dread of disease or sickness. The success deals a severe blow to Republican hopes to ride "Obamacare" to big victories in November -- but the House is still planning a repeal vote for July 11.

Obama Keeps 'Obamacare,' But Romney Wins a Rallying Cry NEW!
[National Journal, 6/28/12] The Supreme Court was good to Obama this week. He loses a chance to run against the Supreme Court, but that’s always a risky proposition, more than offset by the vindication made possible by the tie-breaking vote of Chief Justice John Roberts.

Romney Cashing In On Healthcare Ruling NEW!
[Politicker, 6/28/12] In the first 50 minutes after the Supreme Court ruling, the Romney campaign announced that they’d brought in $100,000 in donations. By 11:30, the figure had reached $300,000.

Romney Launches Mission ‘Repeal and Replace’ NEW!
[Washington Examiner, 6/28/12] “What the court did not do on its last day in session I will do on my first day as president,” Romney said from Washington, D.C. with the Capitol building as his backdrop. “I will act to repeal ObamaCare.” It was revealed yesterday that in 2006 Romney called the mandate "essential."

This Election Just Became About Obamacare NEW!
[Weekly Standard, 6/28/12] Yes, the economy is extremely important, and yes, Obamacare is hurting the economy, writes Jeffrey H. Anderson, who argues that the ruling is good news for Romney.

Obama and Roberts Legacies Are Intertwined
[Wall Street Journal, 6/28/12] Then-Sen. Obama was critical of Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts and even voted against confirming him in 2005, highlighting the wide breach in ideology between the two that has come to color the current health care debate.

Roberts Labels Obama a Tax Raiser NEW!
[National Journal, 6/28/12] Got good news and bad news for you, Mr. President, National Journal’s Ron Fournier writes. The good news is that Chief Justice John Roberts just saved your legacy and, perhaps, your presidency by writing for the Supreme Court majority to rule health care reform constitutional- bad news is he declared you a tax-raiser.

Future of an Aging Court Raises Stakes of Presidential Vote
[New York Times, 6/27/12] Justices Ginsburg, Scalia, Kennedy and Breyer are all over 70, and with an average SCOTUS retirement age of 78.7, a retirement is looking likely during the next presidential term, making the outcome of the fall election pivotal for the future makeup of the Court.

Whose Party Is It Anyway?
[National Journal, 6/28/12] President Obama and Mitt Romney are struggling to relate to their own parties, although in very separate ways. During his first term, Obama controlled the party agenda to such a degree that, at times, Democrats on Capitol Hill wondered if their own careers were an afterthought. Romney, on the other hand, appears tentative within his own party.

Electoral Map Math Favors Romney
[National Journal, 6/28/12] A new wave of state-by-state polls is showing just how sizable the field of swing states will be this election, with several of the Democratic-leaning white, working-class states looking very much in play even as President Obama is holding his ground in some of the traditional battlegrounds. Meanwhile, some swing-state storm clouds for both Obama and Romney.

Swing State Storm Clouds for Obama and Romney Alike
[National Journal, 6/27/12] While the latest round of Quinnipiac University swing state polls released on Wednesday show Obama leading Romney, they also place the president below 50 percent in all three states, both in his share of the vote and his job approval rating.

Mitt Romney Shifts Focus from Post Article on Bain to Health-Care Law
[Washington Post, 6/27/12] As a Washington Post article that highlighted outsourcing of jobs by Bain Capital gained traction on the campaign trail, Romney pivoted from first trying to discredit it to then trying to ignore it, attempting to focus back on health care in advance of the SCOTUS ruling -- perhaps indicating that the attacks on outsourcing are working.

Obama Bundler Tied to ‘Outsourcing Pioneers'
[ABC News, 6/27/12]  Jonathan Lavine, a managing director at Bain in Boston, has bundled between $100,000 and $200,000 for the Obama Victory Fund, according to estimates released by the Obama campaign. Here’s the rub: he has also been involved in three companies that a Washington Post report identified as ones that expanded overseas operations under Romney’s and Lavine’s watch.

Romney's Virginia Fans Don't Give A Damn About The Bain Attacks
[GQ, 6/27/12] Virginia Republicans gave Romney a warm reception on Wednesday, and even as the issue of Bain Capital outsourcing jobs heats up on the campaign trail, Virginians seemed to give Romney a pass as they defended his business record.

Multiple Stumbles on the Democrats' Road to Charlotte Convention
[The Hill, 6/27/12] Two years ago the decision to hold the convention in North Carolina was seen as smart politics, but troubles have been mounting: The host committee has reportedly struggled to raise money, several Democrats are skipping the convention altogether, and union tensions are giving organizers headaches.

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