What does an expert say about the A’s in Sacramento and MLB expansion here?

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Only a few certainties come with the Athletics bringing Major League Baseball to West Sacramento: An agreement was made between Kings and River Cats owner Vivek Ranadivé allowing the A’s to play at Sutter Health Park for three seasons, with an option for a fourth, beginning in 2025 before the team builds a new stadium on the Las Vegas strip A’s owner John Fisher hopes will open in 2028.

But what should happen for baseball in Sacramento beyond that?

Will it lead to Major League Baseball in Sacramento permanently? Would that come through expansion — or could Sacramento become the A’s long-term home if the Las Vegas plans fall through?

If the A’s fail to draw fan interest in California’s capital, would it kill Sacramento’s chances at getting an expansion team? Or would selling out the Triple-A ballpark prove California’s capital as worthy?

Ranadivé made clear during the announcement event last week that part of his goal was to showcase Sacramento as a means toward being awarded a Major League Baseball expansion team.

“I’ve been in touch with the commissioner and I’ve gotten to know him, Rob Manfred, and they will be creating a new team,” Ranadivé told reporters. “They want it to be on the West Coast, they’d love for it to be in California. And I think this is a great showcase for us. We can prove that there’s a market here, and that we can make the team successful. I think we’re in pole position to get the new franchise.”

The assumption from Ranadivé is the fervor Sacramento sports fans have for the NBA’s Kings would translate to the A’s in a way that would appeal to MLB and its 30 owners, who would have to approve any decision made about the team’s long-term future and finding a permanent home.

“There’s no guarantee,” Ranadivé said. “We have to show what we can do. I have complete confidence that if we set our mind to something, this is an incredible city, we have the best fans in the world and at the end of the day, the best fans in the world will make it happen.”

Success at Sutter Health Park, then what?

Sacramento’s ability to get an expansion team will have little to do with how successful the A’s are playing in West Sacramento’s minor league ballpark, according to former executive David P. Samson, who served as the president of the Miami Marlins from 2002 to 2017.

Samson presided over the deal to build the Marlins’ retractable roof stadium now called LoanDepot Park that opened in 2012 over the former site of the Orange Bowl in Little Havana. Samson believes Ranadivé took a misstep when talking about baseball’s expansion plans publicly and wonders if it was detrimental to his cause.

“He’s not understanding how we operate as owners in this league,” Samson said in a phone interview with The Bee. “I think that would be their reaction. You do not get ahead of news, ever. ... It was just a silly statement to make. Expansion shouldn’t be announced by Vivek, it should be announced by the commissioner at the appropriate time.

“And mixing metaphors and sports by saying they’re in the pole position, I found funny. But I also found it to not really serve his interest.”

A story published by ESPN Wednesday cited a Major League Baseball source who said the league made no promises to Ranadivé regarding expansion. “We don’t even have an expansion process in place,” the source said, according ESPN’s Tim Keown. “The owners have to vote to explore expansion first, and then put a committee together. There are no guarantees.”

MLB’s expansion from 30 to 32 teams has been discussed for years while Manfred said he hopes it’s finalized before the end of the decade. And the league is thought to want to solve the A’s longstanding stadium issue in Oakland, and now Las Vegas, along with the Tampa Bay Rays’ stadium issue in Florida before expanding the league by two teams.

The league’s 29 owners approved Fisher’s move to Las Vegas unanimously while waving a relocation fee that was expected to be roughly $1 billion. The fee reportedly was waived to expedite the path toward expansion, which could bring in $1 to $2 billion per team. That would be split 30 ways among owners.

How to win an MLB team

That’s not to say Ranadivé could not earn an expansion bid for Sacramento, Samson said.

“The way that Sacramento gets a team is not by selling out the Triple-A stadium for the Oakland A’s. It’s not by welcoming the Oakland A’s to Sacramento for this period,” Samson said. “It is by showing baseball that you’ve got the financing in place to both pay a relocation fee or an expansion fee. It is by financing, publicly, a stadium — a first-class Major League facility. And it is by showing baseball what the local revenue would be, both gate and television.

“Put those on paper, make sure they can stand the stress test that financial statements get, and then you’re in position to be considered an expansion candidate. I would just caution people in Sacramento that just being the interim placeholder here does not, in any way, in my opinion, either help or hurt Sacramento’s effort to get Major League baseball.”

In essence, Ranadivé would have to get in line with others trying to persuade Major League Baseball to come to their cities.

Some that have been mentioned include Charlotte, Nashville, Portland, Salt Lake City, Montreal and San Antonio. And should the A’s successfully relocate to Las Vegas and complete their new stadium, Oakland could also be a candidate.

Golden State Warriors owner Joe Lacob could be among deep pocketed financiers from Silicon Valley interested in reprising baseball in the East Bay where the A’s won four World Series. Lacob has said publicly he would be interested in buying the A’s while noting Fisher never made them available.

Before it Sacramento became a real option for the A’s over the past few months, the region was not considered an expansion candidate. But it’s a logical one given Sacramento-Stockton-Modesto is considered the country’s No. 20 ranked media market, according to Neilsen. Sacramento and Orlando are the only top-20 markets with one team from the NFL, NBA or MLB.

By bringing the A’s to Sacramento temporarily, Ranadivé has at least added his city to the list.

“Having Sacramento as an additional candidate for western expansion,” Samson said, “is outstanding because the competition is what drives up the (expansion) fee.”

Could Ranadivé buy the A’s if Las Vegas falls through?

Also mentioned in the ESPN piece was one idea that has been discussed in Sacramento since the A’s temporary move became official: “Ranadivé is making a calculation that Las Vegas is never going to happen,” Keown wrote, alluding to the prospect that Ranadivé may have positioned Sacramento as the permanent home of the A’s.

Would Fisher then sell? Could Ranadivé swoop in and buy a majority interest?

Ranadivé has never publicly expressed an interest in buying the club.

But purchasing the A’s wouldn’t be impossible should Fisher decide to sell. Like expansion, Ranadivé would have to be approved by MLB’s owners and commissioner through a rigorous vetting process.

“You get the highest price from the buyer who can be approved,” Samson said. “So the question you have is: is Vivek an actual legitimate buyer for a team that’s for sale? And (if) the answer is ‘yes,’ he would have to be vetted by baseball and then given permission to see the financials of both the team and the league. And then he’d have to do a deal with John Fisher.”

Although Sacramento would have a snag, Samson said.

“When you’re selling your team, you can’t sell your team in another market,” said Samson. “The A’s do not have the Sacramento market. It is not in their ability to sell a team that will be relocated. The commissioner has to be pre-approve that. The owners have to pre-approve that. That is a far more complicated approval.”

Samson was the Marlins team president while the team was sold in 2017 to a group led by former New York Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter for $1.2 billion. Samson said Major League Baseball wouldn’t have allowed the team to be sold if the long-term plan was moving the team out of the Miami market.

“That just does not happen,” Samson said. “It would not be approved.”