Did Punxsutawney Phil correctly predict an early spring? The numbers are in

Ryan Matoush
·2 min read

(SOUTHERN COLORADO) — Believe it or not, meteorological spring is just about to wrap up. With May starting to come to a close, June marks the beginning of meteorological summer.

The seasons, as defined by meteorologists, break down as such:

  • Winter – December, January, February

  • Spring – March, April, May

  • Summer – June, July, Aug.

  • Fall – September, October, November

This year, Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow and thus predicted an early spring. But was his prediction correct?

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses the average U.S. temperatures from February and March to judge the groundhog’s meteorological might. If the state’s combined temperatures for the month are each above average, then NOAA considers it an early spring.

This year, February featured every single state in the contiguous U.S. as above average except for Florida, when it came to temperature. Colorado had its 10th warmest February on record – putting the state at 120th out of the 130 years of data. This means that February 2024 was warmer than 119 other Februarys dating back to 1895.

Click here to watch Cheyenne Mountain Zoo’s Waffles the Porcupine make her spring prediction for Southern Colorado.

As for March, not quite as many states reached the above-average threshold. However, a significant number of states still did, leading to March 2024 also being above average. Colorado saw its 30th warmest March on record since 1895.

All in all – the United States had its third warmest February and 17th warmest March since records began. As a country, February was 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit above average and March was 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above average.

So what does this mean for Phil and his prediction? Based off of the above-average temperatures for February and March – Phil was correct! He may have gotten lucky this time, but that certainly is not always the case.

According to NOAA, the groundhog has only been right three times out of the last 10; that’s a 30% success rate. Historically speaking, the groundhog has favored seeing his shadow – leading to delayed spring predictions.

Phil has been making his predictions since 1887.

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to FOX21 News Colorado.