Did the Kansas Jayhawks get lucky (or unlucky) with their NCAA Tournament draw?

The Kansas Jayhawks men’s basketball team on Sunday learned its assignment for the NCAA Tournament: No. 4 seed in the Midwest Regional.

Purdue’s the Midwest’s No. 1 seed, followed by Tennessee at No. 2 and Creighton No. 3.

The last time the Jayhawks played in the Midwest Regional was 2019, when KU, seeded No. 4 then, too, lost to No. 5-seeded Auburn in the second round.

Here’s a look at the Jayhawks’ potential path to the 2024 Final Four, and whether they received lucky or unlucky draws along the way:

Round of 64

KU’s first-round opponent: No. 13 seed Samford.

Lucky or unlucky draw? Unlucky.

Samford ranks No. 81 nationally in KenPom and looks to be the best of this year’s 13-seeds.

BartTorvik has Samford slightly lower than KenPom, with a ranking of 89. KU is ranked 22nd by KenPom and 16th by BartTorvik.

There’s a chance of an upset here. Perhaps the most worrying aspect for KU is the fact that the Bulldogs rank No. 8 in 3-point percentage (39.3) with a 3-point rate of 40.9%. The Jayhawks have struggled to keep up with teams that can shoot the long ball well.

KU opens as an 8.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel.

Round of 32

Potential opponent (if Vegas odds hold): Gonzaga.

Lucky or unlucky draw? Unlucky.

If this is the matchup, Kansas draws this year’s most challenging 5-seed. KenPom ranks Gonzaga No. 15 and BartTorvik rates the Zags No. 14.

These Bulldogs rank No. 9 in adjusted offensive efficiency (121), the number of points scored per 100 possessions. Gonzaga also ranks No. 52 in offensive rebounding percentage (33.3) — another concern for the Jayhawks, who’ve struggled on the boards at times this season.

A positive note: The Zags don’t shoot many 3-pointers, ranking No. 310 in 3-point rate.

KU would likely be an underdog against Gonzaga. And the Zags could have a potential crowd advantage in Salt Lake.

Sweet 16

Potential opponent (if Vegas odds hold): Purdue.

Lucky or unlucky draw? Slightly unlucky.

Purdue is the second-lowest ranked 1-seed. KenPom and BarTorvik have the Boilermakers at No. 3.

The Jayhawks would need Hunter Dickinson to be fully healthy for this one, as he’d match up with likely 2024 National Player of the Year Zach Edey. Edey’s paint gravity leads to wide-open 3-pointers for his teammates and is a big reason why the Boilermakers rank No. 2 in 3-point percentage (40.7).

On top of that, Purdue plays excellent defense, ranking No. 21 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

It’s not the stiffest matchup KU could face, but taking down Purdue wouldn’t be easy. The Boilermakers don’t have many flaws.

Elite Eight

Potential opponent (if Vegas odds hold): Tennessee.

Lucky or unlucky draw? Slightly Lucky.

If the Jayhawks make it this far, there’s a good chance they’d face the second-easiest No. 2 seed. KU is familiar with the Vols, having beaten Tennessee 68-60 in the Maui Invitational in November.

The Vols’ defense is elite, ranking No. 3 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Tennessee is excellent at defending two-point shots, ranking No. 9 nationally. KU scores 59% of its points inside the arc, ranking No. 7 overall in this metric.

The Vols don’t take or make many 3-pointers, shooting just 33.3% beyond the arc. That bodes well for the Jayhawks, who are long-ball-challenged.

If KU gets this far, there’s a decent shot of an upset here. But getting this far will be a challenge in itself.

Overall

The Jayhawks have a difficult bracket.

For a team that struggles to make and defend 3-pointers, Samford poses significant issues for KU. And that’s just the first round matchup.

Until the Sweet 16, KU would have the most difficult probable matchups, according to most analytics sites. Then, in the Round of 16, KU would probably be playing No. 1 Purdue. From Samford on, KU would likely be the underdog in each of its subsequent tournament games.

Purdue would be KU’s toughest matchup because the Boilers possess an ideal blend of elite offense and stingy defense — plus a superstar in Edey.

If KU reaches the Final Four this year, two things will be undoubtedly be true: The Jayhawks will be fully healthy and KU will be as battle-tested as any top-4 seed could hope to be.