Despite red reputation, Kent County has emerged as key election battleground in Michigan

GRAND RAPIDS — At the start of the year, a small section of downtown Grand Rapids was garnished with signs labeled “FORD 50,” a nod to the 50^th anniversary of Gerald R. Ford being sworn in as president after the Watergate scandal led to President Richard Nixon’s resignation in 1974.

Ford grew up in Grand Rapids, Kent County's largest city. For people living in the area, it's hard not to notice the bevy of signs, heraldry and even a museum donned with the 38th president's name.

While Kent County has carried a historical reputation for producing Republican politicos like Ford, Peter Secchia, Arthur Vandenberg, the powerful DeVos family and Peter Meijer, in recent years, the west Michigan county has been competitive, voting for the Democratic candidate at the top of the ticket in general elections since 2018.

Kent County’s emergence as a true battleground in Michigan, a true battleground state, has been apparent in recent elections. Apart from Mitt Romney carrying the county in 2012, the winner of Kent County has gone on to win Michigan’s electoral votes in each presidential election since 2008.

Area residents see its importance to Michigan as well, noting the number of high-profile politicians who’ve landed in Kent County during recent elections. Former President Donald Trump held his final rallies before Election Day in both 2016 and 2020 in Grand Rapids.

For Rae Westerhof, a Grand Rapids voter and volunteer for local Democrats, her number one focus is local elections. She put in some local legwork canvassing in Wyoming, a Grand Rapids suburb, with State Rep. John Fitzgerald, D-Wyoming, recently.

“I care so much about my city commissioner, my county commissioner,” she said. “I care so much about my state House and state Senate, because I see our public schools and where that money comes from.”

But she knows, too, that Kent County is growing in national prominence. She noted high-profile Democratic figures, like Vice President Kamala Harris, former presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg and others have made stops in west Michigan during campaign season.

“Are we always fighting that fight? Yes, of course,” she said. “When you're in a state with Detroit, you're always going to have to elbow a little bit into the scene and be heard.”

“It’s a hard spot, but we’re getting on the map and it’s very exciting.”

Like the entire state, Kent County is a mix of urban, suburban and rural areas

Kent County is almost a microcosm of the entire state, in terms of its makeup.

“You have the small city, urban core of Grand Rapids, but you have all of these inner ring suburbs of relatively highly educated, higher income-earning professionals and within a presidential election, the real kind of battleground is over these suburban voters,” said Whitt Kilburn, a professor of political science at Grand Valley State University.

“Kent County is a reflection of how that competition is going between the two different sides."

Grand Rapids is Michigan’s second-largest city and a reliable source of Democratic votes in statewide and federal elections. But it's surrounded by suburbs — some with higher-than-average median household incomes like Cascade Township, Ada and East Grand Rapids — and others that fall closer to the national average, like Byron Township, Grandville and Wyoming.

And like Michigan, Kent County also has a share of rural and exurban communities outside Grand Rapids and the inner ring suburbs. Communities like Sparta, Lowell and Caledonia tend to sway more toward Republicans.

Just as Michigan’s economic and demographic diversity has made it competitive in recent elections, it's made Kent County competitive as well, illustrated by Trump carrying Kent County to his 2016 upset win of Michigan, then President Joe Biden flipping the county back on his way to the White House in 2020.

Inflation hits home here, too

Mary Tit moved to Grand Rapids in 2009, just a few years after she came to the U.S. from South Sudan. She’s always felt welcomed in west Michigan, Tit said, and has embraced voting now as a U.S. citizen, along with volunteering for the Kent County Democratic Party. But she hasn’t yet decided if she will support Biden’s reelection campaign.

Inflation, like for many in the country, has affected Tit, who says she is working a second job to help with expenses. “The economy now is so high,” Tit said, referring to the cost of living. “How will we survive this? Life is so expensive.”

The effects of inflation have Kentwood's Geary Zomberg, 62, ready to vote for Trump this fall. Zomberg, who has worked in the construction industry, mainly in transport, for decades, says rising costs have hampered his plans for retirement, something he's still hoping to accomplish in the next few years.

"I can look past when he had the mean tweets, and he does speak out of turn a little bit," Zomberg said. "But I like cheaper gas ... times were good. Now I'm paying through the nose for everything."

Like many Republicans, Zomberg said he also has concerns about security at the U.S. southern border with Mexico. Additionally, he said he doesn't understand why taxpayers like himself have to support foreign wars, pointing to aid packages sent to Ukrainian forces following Russia's invasion of the country.

"I don't know if I could find Ukraine on a map, to tell you the truth," Zomberg said. "I'm not a Russia-lover, but it seems like we're sending them a lot of money over there and nothing's happened."

Keith Hull, a Grand Rapids Republican, said the state of the economy would lead to Biden losing the election. Hull, who has worked with the Kent GOP but stressed he was speaking on his own behalf, pointed to the border, as well as what he described as unfair legal prosecution of Trump as his most pressing issues of the coming election.

"Biden's making it a lot easier for us," Hull said, of local Republican efforts, although he scrutinized media coverage of issues like the economy, saying outlets don't report enough on economic and other issues.

Changes in population, political trends have made Kent more competitive

Michigan leaders made improving the state’s sluggish population growth a key focus in 2023, as Michigan has either lost population or gained minimal population in recent census estimates.

But Kent County doesn’t have the same problem — Census population counts and estimates show it grew each year from 2010 to 2022.

“I moved from super, super, super conservative Iowa,” said Westerhof, who came to west Michigan in the early 2000s. “I moved to Grand Rapids to go to the big city, to be a liberal, to be a Democrat, and I found my people pretty quickly here.”

Along with steady population growth, the rate of bachelor’s level degree attainment, an indicator of Kent County’s average education level, has also increased.

National trends have shown that voters with college degrees tend to support Democratic candidates, on average. As Kent County has grown and become more educated, its electorate has become more competitive, noted Bill Jackson, a longtime political consultant who lives in the region.

“Kent County is one of the few counties in the state of Michigan where population is increasing. And that population increase is really driven by an influx of younger voters, who tend to vote Democrat(ic),” Jackson said.

Kent County will be a battleground once again in 2024

The 2024 presidential election will likely be similar to the 2020 election in, well, the fact that most voters will be choosing between the same two candidates — Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket, and Trump carrying the flag for Republicans.

In 2016, Trump won a little more than 48% of the vote in Kent County compared to Democratic nominee Hilary Clinton winning around 45%. In 2020, Biden flipped Kent County, defeating Trump by around six percentage points after taking nearly 52% of the vote.

Given how those elections played out, in Kent County, in Michigan and across the country, analysts believe the west Michigan county will be imperative for both campaigns this fall.

“There was a lot of consternation from the Trump campaign in 2020 about Detroit and Wayne County,” Jackson said. “But Trump won more votes in Wayne County in 2020 than 2016. He lost Kent County. There was a complete flip. I don't think Trump can Michigan without winning Kent County.”

For voters in the area, a Biden-Trump rematch could bring high turnout to the polls once again. Grand Rapids' David Hamel, 60, described himself as a lifelong Democrat, and believes voters will be motivated to re-elect Biden, especially with Trump on the other side of the ballot.

“I actually think that we have a really high probability of having a really, really good turnout,” Hamel said. “I don't see the apathy, the people that I’m talking to, I see people that are really looking forward to voting in November. I actually see that as being a positive.”

Given the increasing education level in Kent County, Kilburn said suburban voters with degrees will be a crucial battleground. He pointed to the results of Michigan’s Republican presidential primary — although Trump cruised to victory, former Republican challenger Nikki Haley did better, on average, in counties with higher college degree attainment rates, like Kent.

The campaign that does a better job convincing those Haley voters to cross over to their side come November will likely fare better overall, Kilburn said. And even with Democrats faring better in recent elections — Biden’s victory in 2020 is sandwiched by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer carrying Kent County in both of her gubernatorial campaigns in 2018 and 2022 — local Democrats feel they can reach those moderate voters in this fall’s election.

“I don't want to say it’s hyper- or super-liberal,” Westerhof said. “But you see a lot more moderates in this area. A lot more people willing to look at both sides and kind of judge them based on their merit, not based on what they read or what they hear.”

This article is part of a collaboration between The Free Press, a Michigan State University course and the American Communities Project to tell the stories of voters, their experiences, and their political motivations in communities across Michigan leading up to the 2024 election. Connect with us at votervoices@freepress.com, and read our previous stories on Livingston County, Ingham County, Schoolcraft County and Osceola County.

Contact Arpan Lobo: alobo@freepress.com. Follow him on X (Twitter) @arpanlobo.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Kent County has become key battleground in Michigan elections