How the Denver Broncos match up against Tampa Bay
Have to be up front, my favorite quarterback is Jameis Winston, so I’ll try to tone down my love. He’s a gunslinger who plays kicking and screaming. He’s kind of a Andrew Luck and Cam Newton combo platter. The good news is the Denver Broncos defense has already faced this type of quarterback play and beat it down.
Before the season started, I thought the Buccaneers had a chance to knock the Panthers off their perch because Cam Newton is arrogant with the ball, an issue to be exploited, plus if he has to throw from the pocket, he’s not great.
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Also, on paper, thought the Bucs had improved their defense. Wrong. Linebackers Kwon Alexander and Levonte David are good, but Brent Grimes, Chris Conte and Bradley McDougald aren’t going to be on anyone’s Pro Bowl ballot. New Defensive Coordinator, Mike Smith, hasn’t improved the D, at all.
Even based on a poor secondary, if Doug Martin was playing against us, I’d say this game would be a nail biter. He’s not. That means all the weight is on Winston. When a quarterback has to throw 50-passes a game, he loses. Winston is up to a league high, 142-attempts. For comparison, only three quarterbacks — who have played three full games — have thrown less than Siemian’s 94.
Add to this fact, 6’5 wide receiver Vincent Jackson has played poorly. Three of Winston’s interceptions were from Jackson either not making a play for the ball, ran the wrong route, or his timing was off. Those two are not on the same page.
That means Tampa Bay has lost their Pro Bowl leading rusher and half of a big bodied receiving tandem. Double cover 6’5 Mike Evans and Winston is left with tight ends and versatile back, Charles Simms. He’s not going to bulldoze for yards. He’s been used more of a change of pace running back and receiver out of the backfield. He can be dangerous in the red zone or for a dump off pass, but he’s not going to tire our D-line out.
Simms isn’t going to force us to load the box to stop the run. Did I mention their starting Center is on the DNP list? Their left guard got hurt last week, too. Even if Tampa catches Wade Phillips with the wrong plan, it won’t last. A run game is a quarterback’s best friend. Right now, Winston is left friendless and holding the ball. Not to mention, he’s been taking a pounding and looks a little beat up.
Tampa’s best assets are their Tight Ends. Until Austin Seferian-Jenkins was kicked off the team, they often used all four of their brutes and spread them out. Our secondary isn’t great against tight ends. Theirs are pretty good. This is the line of attack I can see having a chance. Force our secondary and linebackers to keep tackling these giants.
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Winston isn’t going to have many designed quarterback runs, but he moves a lot behind the line of scrimmage. His best chance against our swarming defense is to use an uptempo, no huddle attack, the play action, and throw on the run. He can also hope his offensive line can give him a couple seconds in the pocket.
Give him time in the pocket and he could dissect our defense — provided that his guys execute. He’s one of the better quarterbacks at reading the field, going through his progressions.
In order to win, Tampa’s offense is going to need a bang up day and Siemian throws a couple pick-sixes. This game will be predicated on who screws up the most. I know that’s the case for every game, but in this instance, I see a loss only coming if we beat ourselves.
Tampa is facing a team with the best coaching duo in Gary Kubiak and Wade Phillips, a quarterback who showed he can throw the ball, a good rushing game, and a smothering defense. Tough to imagine Tampa having a chance without Martin, having new coaches and a bad, BAD secondary. Their number two wide receiver is off. Age, injury, desire, or all three, but unless he drinks a gallon of Red Bull, not sure he’s really a weapon.
Tampa should get some yards and points, but they won’t be enough to overcome their defensive woes. A defense that mentally collapses when things don’t go their way. A defense that couldn’t stop Case Keenum and he didn’t even play well.
Here’s Siemian’s chance to show Cincy was a stepping stone to even better play. Tampa Bay is ranked dead last in allowing points. The Bucs are 20th in defending the pass, 19th at allowing yards per game, 15th at stopping the run. Kubiak has a smorgasbord of ways to attack.
On any given Sunday, any team can win, but unless a catastrophe occurs, just don’t see a favorable match-up for Tampa. This team hasn’t shown it can finish games. With me and my posse attending this game, I’m calling for a final score of Denver 30, Tampa 20. Woohoo! Go Broncos!
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