Dems are suddenly playing defense on abortion

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THE BIG IDEA: Dems are suddenly playing defense on abortion

Abortion was supposed to be the winning issue for Democrats this year. The Supreme Court’s June decision to overturn Roe v. Wade was deeply unpopular. And Democrats from President Biden on down have made abortion central to their messaging.

The anger over the Supreme Court’s ruling — and the ensuing abortion bans in a number of states — is real and persistent. But Jon Ward writes that in races all over the country, abortion is an issue on which Democrats suddenly might be in a tough spot.

On abortion, the debates over the last week really did reveal something: Democrats were put on the defensive on this issue that they have seen as one of their biggest assets this cycle.

Arizona gubernatorial candidate Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, was the most glaring example of this. Democrats are increasingly worried that Hobbs, the former secretary of state, has proven to be a weak candidate. Hobbs has even refused to debate Republican candidate Kari Lake.

But during an appearance on CNN Sunday morning, just after Lake did an interview with the same network, TV reporter Dana Bash asked Hobbs five times whether she would “support any legal limits on abortion in Arizona.”

Hobbs would not answer the question, saying only that late-term abortions are “incredibly, extremely rare” and occur only if “there’s something that’s gone incredibly wrong in the pregnancy.”

“Politicians do not belong in that decision,” Hobbs said.

Other Democrats took the same approach when asked if they approved any limits on abortion. Warnock was asked the question, and simply said, “I trust women more than I trust politicians.”

In Ohio, Senate candidate Rep. Tim Ryan, who a decade ago was on the board of Democrats for Life — an anti-abortion group — said that “government has no place in this matter.”

Republicans have pounced on this in recent days and weeks. A spokesman for the Republican Governors Association tweeted that Hobbs’ answer amounted to support for “abortion up to the moment of birth.”

Read Ward’s full story here.

POLLS, POLLS, POLLS

The latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows more warning signs for Democrats as we enter the home stretch of campaign season. Americans increasingly say that they’ll vote Republican, and the GOP’s relentless emphasis on crime appears to be paying dividends.

“Republicans are gaining ground in the closing weeks of the 2022 midterm campaign, according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll — and their renewed focus on crime seems to be helping them overtake Democrats in the race for control of Congress,” Andrew Romano reports.

It’s not that voters are suddenly saying that crime is the “most important” issue for them, Romano notes. “That distinction belongs to inflation (38%), which has ranked first — by a wide margin — for months.”

“Yet beneath the surface, the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll reveals that crime is exerting a stronger pull on many voters than that number would suggest. When separately asked to rate how important each issue is, for instance, a clear majority of Americans describe crime as ‘very important’ (59%) and nearly all (89%) say it’s at least ‘somewhat important.’ Only inflation — 72% very important; 92% at least somewhat important — scores higher.”

Americans give Republicans the edge when it comes to handling crime, with 38% saying they trust the GOP more on the issue and just 30% saying the same of Democrats.

“Likewise, independents prefer Republicans on crime by a massive 42% to 17% margin,” Romano says. “As a result, crime appears to be doing for Republicans what abortion has been doing for Democrats — motivating the base and serving as a wedge issue with some swing voters.”

SLEEPER RACE ALERT

Are New York Republicans on the verge of their first statewide victory in 20 years? Probably not. But if the GOP has a very good night on Nov. 8, there might be an outside chance that Rep. Lee Zeldin is the Empire State’s next governor. And if the GOP does well in the contest for governor, it could help them win in a number of competitive House races around the state.

A Quinnipiac poll released this week showed Zeldin within four points of Kathy Hochul, the Democratic incumbent who took power last year after Andrew Cuomo resigned.

The survey showed Zeldin at 46% support and Hochul at 50%. Even that result would be the New York GOP’s best statewide showing since 2002, when Republican Gov. George Pataki — who got a popularity boost following the 9/11 attacks — won a third term.

Quinnipiac found that voters said crime and inflation were the most important issues facing the state. That’s good news for Zeldin, as Republicans have the edge when it comes to both issues.

Democrats have tried to paint Zeldin as a right-wing extremist. The congressman, who represents Trump-friendly eastern Long Island, opposes abortion rights and was one of the 147 House Republicans to vote against certifying the 2020 election. Zeldin has insisted that he won’t meddle with New York’s liberal abortion laws and has focused his campaign on crime.

APPOINTMENT VIEWING

Next week features some of the most important debates of the year. On Oct. 24, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — a likely GOP presidential candidate — will face off against his Democratic opponent, Rep. Charlie Crist. But the biggest fireworks will likely come a day later, when Dr. Mehmet Oz debates Lt. Gov. John Fetterman in the only debate for Pennsylvania’s open Senate seat.

Recent polls indicate that Oz is narrowly trailing Fetterman, who suffered a stroke in the spring but had a significant lead in the race over the summer. Republicans have criticized Fetterman for being evasive about his health, a charge his campaign tried to rebut this week by releasing a note from his doctor stating that he is “recovering well” and “can work full duty in public office.”

It’s no stretch to say that the Pennsylvania contest could decide which party controls the Senate in November. The seat is being vacated by retiring Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican, and is likely the Democrats’ best pickup opportunity this year.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

“MAGA doesn’t vote for stupid people with big mouths.” — Donald Trump on Joe O’Dea, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Colorado. Polls indicate that O’Dea, running as a moderate, has a fighting chance in his race against Democratic incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet. Republicans worry that Trump’s out-of-nowhere broadside, however, could damage O’Dea’s standing among conservatives in the state and cost him needed votes.