Demographic crisis hits China as population growth slips to lowest ever recorded

China’s population growth has slipped to the lowest ever on record, forcing Communist Party leaders to contend with a demographic crisis hitting the world’s second-largest economy.

The country’s population increased 5.38 per cent to 1.41 billion people in 2020, according to once-a-decade census results published by the government on Tuesday.

That data also revealed that annual growth averaged just 0.53 per cent over the past decade, the slowest rate since 1953.

Some people took advantage of the census results to draw attention to what they believed to be a suspicious, recent death of a student by posting comments about it on a widely followed state media livestream covering the census.

The bet was that many people would read the comments – even if government censors later moved to delete them.

Police say the student, 17, died on May 9 after falling off a campus building.

However, his family suspects foul play.

A woman claiming to be his mother has posted online saying she was barred from entering school premises and viewing relevant security footage, and complaining that authorities immediately sent the corpse for cremation rather than to a hospital for an autopsy.

In China, it can be especially devastating for parents to lose a child, as it is usually their only son or daughter due to decades of an official one-child policy.

China’s brutal family planning policies – at times implemented with forced abortions – meant population growth had already been slowing for decades.

Concerned about a looming demographic issue, Chinese leaders relaxed restrictions in 2016 to allow families to have two children.

At the time, the government estimated that scrapping the one-child rule would see overall population grow to 1.42 billion by 2020.

But the rising cost of living, health care and education meant couples were less willing to have children, with the latest population data falling short of the government’s target by around 10 million.

Economists have long raised concerns over whether China can grow rich before it grows old – a struggle for many developing nations.

With waning births and a fast-aging society, China is indeed headed for a population decline, which will be a major turning point for a nation that is currently the world’s most populous.

A fall in population will also mean serious implications for the economy, especially as the working-age population has already begun to decline after hitting a peak a decade ago.

That section of the population – those aged 15 to 59 – represented 63.4 per cent of the population, around 895 million people, down from nearly 940 million.

About 13.5 per cent of the population is now over the age of 65, compared to 10 per cent in the last nationwide census in 2010.

"In past decades, we benefitted a lot from the demographic dividend. Now that we've come to the point of an ageing society, you will find that people over 60 or 65 are equivalent to a kind of debt rather than a dividend," said one Shanghai resident, Cao Zhou, 36.

"In this situation, it's become very important for young people to be more willing to have children or make more contributions."

Last month, the statistics bureau took the unusual step of saying that overall population grew in 2020 but didn’t announce figures – demonstrating the issue’s sensitivity.

The move came after the Financial Times reported that the census data might show a surprise decline following it being delayed from official release for weeks.

In yet another sign of how secretive and sensitive the figures were, the Telegraph understands that Chinese academics asked to write parts of the census report were told to leave blank spaces for the final data to be filled in later.

Estimates presented in Chinese state media put the country’s population decline on the horizon over the next few years.

Some experts, however, argue that the population is already shrinking and that policymakers – using faulty data – are unable to effectively respond to the demographic challenge.

Additional reporting by Wen Xu.