Are Democrats really doomed by the GOP's win in Georgia?
Karen Handel’s narrow win puts Republicans one step closer to repealing Obamacare, while its effects on the Democratic party’s psyche could be profound
The result of the special election in Georgia on Tuesday did not guarantee re-election for Donald Trump, nor did it ensure continued Republican congressional majorities after the midterms. It was, however, a devastating defeat for Democrats.
Although Jon Ossoff was running in a traditionally red district where country-club Republicans had consistently delivered overwhelming majorities to conservative candidates for decades, it was one that proved deeply skeptical of Trump.
While then-incumbent congressman Tom Price won the district by 23% in the 2016 election, Trump won it by only 1%. When Price vacated the seat after being confirmed to be secretary of health and human services, Democrats eyed the district as a prime pick-up opportunity and a key test for their ability to succeed in the Trump era.
Ossoff became the focus of anti-Trump organizing efforts around the country. Although the 30-year-old political neophyte rarely mentioned the president and instead stuck to a broad centrist message in an attempt to woo swing voters in his district, his base was clearly motivated by discontent over Trump’s victory.
His campaign boasted of over 10,000 volunteers from around the country, including newly formed active women’s groups that organized and canvassed suburban subdivisions on this behalf. These volunteers, let alone those who had donated over $23m to his campaign, were not motivated entirely by the Democrat’s message of cutting government waste or turning Atlanta into “the Silicon Valley of the south”.
His loss comes as a rebuke to those efforts, and reopens the internal divides within the Democratic party about whether candidates should adopt an unapologetically progressive message or attempt to be more pragmatic in their efforts to woo voters. The result is that this has rejuvenated the circular firing squad within the Democratic party that was revived in the aftermath of Hillary Clinton’s shock defeat in 2016.
It also comes as Republicans are about to unveil the long hidden Senate proposal to repeal the Affordable Care Act (popularly known as Obamacare) and provides a confidence boost to those Republicans who were feeling anxiety about the potential political consequences of scrapping the healthcare law. A Democratic win would have likely sparked Republican concern about Trump’s high negatives and lack of popular support for the overhaul of healthcare.
So it’s a short-term gain for the Republicans, but Ossoff’s loss by no means spells doom for Democratic hopes in 2018. His strong performance in a traditional Republican district shows a path to victory for Democrats in districts that are less conservative. Ossoff matched Democratic turnout in 2016, but there simply weren’t enough Democratic voters in the district for him to win, as turnout far surpassed a normal midterm election. Similar performances by Democrats in 2018 would put the Republican majority in the House of Representatives in jeopardy.
But 2018 is a long time away. In the meantime, Republicans will gain another member of Congress and have bypassed yet another obstacle in their efforts to repeal the ACA.
