Democrats fear Netanyahu may have undermined Biden’s image among voters

When the Israel-Hamas war broke out six months ago, it represented the kind of global crisis that President Joe Biden told voters he is uniquely equipped to confront.

But as the U.S. struggled to prevent the conflict from spiraling into a humanitarian catastrophe, some of Biden’s close advisers and allies began worrying that rather than bolstering his image as an experienced global leader, the president's steadfast support for Israel's offensive risked further complicating his argument that the election is a choice between his competent moral clarity and former President Donald Trump's chaos.

Those concerns have been echoed in a series of interviews and statements from prominent Democratic and Democratic-aligned senators, including Tim Kaine and Bernie Sanders, in recent days. And they have been an unstated undercurrent to the White House’s decision this past week to issue a stark threat to Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu that U.S. support could evaporate without major changes following a strike that killed seven World Central Kitchen aid workers.

That warning was an abrupt shift in posture driven by months of frustration with Netanyahu’s routine defiance of the administration’s counsel, as well as Biden’s own personal fury over a mounting death toll that now includes an American. It was also a signal that the president’s team has begun to see secondary domestic political problems arising from the conflict that now threaten to spill beyond a portion of the Democratic base.

"It has undermined one of his most important assets against Trump," Matt Duss, a former top foreign policy adviser to Sanders now at the Center for International Policy, said of Biden's handling of the war up until this week. "Biden's reputation was — agree or disagree with him — he's a decent guy, he's an empathetic guy, he's an honest guy. But this policy has been a cruel policy."

The Israel-Hamas conflict is not the first complex Middle East crisis to challenge Biden's political and diplomatic skills. The White House faced mounting criticism in 2021 over its pullout from Afghanistan, with Biden facing questions over the planning as well as, more broadly, whether he was fulfilling his own pledge to be a force for global stability. His poll numbers stumbled badly and have never fully recovered.

The parallels are not exact, not least because U.S. troops are not involved in the war in Gaza. But nearly three years later, Democrats fear once more that the president is being hampered by his handling of a conflict overseas.

"I applaud President Biden for successfully urging Prime Minister Netanyahu to open another border crossing from Israel to allow robust delivery of humanitarian aid," said Kaine, a leading Democratic voice on foreign policy. "But this was an obvious solution that should have happened months ago."

Biden’s “current approach,” Kaine added, “is not working."

Biden aligned himself closely with Netanyahu in the aftermath of Hamas' Oct. 7 attack despite deep reservations about the right-wing leader, calculating that it gave his administration the best chance at influencing Israel’s counteroffensive and preventing wider war in the region.

The White House has slowly grown more critical of Netanyahu in the intervening months, though it insists that supporting Israel remains the correct approach. It also maintains it's the only path to achieving the U.S.’s primary goals of ramping up aid deliveries in Gaza and securing a cease-fire that returns the remaining hostages held by Hamas. Aides argue that Biden has swayed Israel on several fronts since the war began, including convincing Netanyahu to allow for border crossings and the flow of aid into Gaza, as well as securing a temporary cease-fire and hostage release in November.

But within hours of Biden's stern call with Netanyahu over the World Central Kitchen strike, Israel committed to opening up new aid routes. The quick action emboldened Democrats who have long argued that the White House should take a sharper approach, and that continuing to put up with the Israeli prime minister’s intransigence risks damaging Biden's goals abroad and at home.

"What this exchange shows is that when the president uses American leverage to enforce his demands, he gets results," said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). "The United States will look feckless if we do not match our words with deeds.”

In a statement, White House spokesperson Andrew Bates said Biden’s “significant experience, steady hand, relationships, and values have been critical as we manage tough foreign policy challenges in the Middle East and around the world.”

“President Biden’s leadership has secured important changes throughout the conflict and reduced volatility, which is the polar opposite of the result that other approaches suggested by critics on the right would have achieved," Bates said.

Biden’s defenders also note that Trump has given voters a real-time glimpse of how he would handle such a crisis, criticizing Netanyahu and calling the militant group Hezbollah “very smart” just days after the Oct. 7 attacks. Those episodes, on top of an extensive first-term record of erratic foreign policy decision making, have given voters a clear sense of which candidate is more prepared to navigate complex crises, they argue.

Still, there is persistent worry in Democratic circles that the visceral images emerging from Gaza each day are denting enthusiasm among Biden voters. Most visibly, the worsening humanitarian situation has angered an important part of Biden’s base — young voters, Arab and Muslim Americans and progressives — outraged by the U.S.’s inability to stop the unfolding horrors. Biden now faces protests nearly everywhere he travels, as well as concerns that a Democratic Convention this summer will be consumed by voter anger in the streets.

There are also indications that Americans are souring on Biden’s handling of the conflict more broadly. Just 47 percent of Democrats approved of Biden's Middle East strategy in March, according to a Gallup poll, down from 60 percent last November. Among independents, the president's Middle East approval rating sat at 21 percent.

Those warning signs permeated Biden’s inner circle in recent weeks. One senior adviser, granted anonymity to discuss confidential conversations, said leading up to Biden's confrontational call with Netanyahu on Thursday that there was worry Biden’s difficulty in controlling his Israeli counterpart could undermine his claim to steady competence in voters’ eyes, and elevate Trump’s arguments for projecting a brasher — if far more erratic — image on the world stage.

“I think there’s great awareness that the U.S. position [toward the war] has been damaging to its standing internationally,” said Ivo Daalder, CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Daalder, who is close to senior administration officials, added that up until now, Biden has viewed his support of Israel as a deep-seated principle. “But the fact is, Bibi has provoked him so much that he may finally change.”

Trump, for his part, has struggled to articulate a position on Israel, nor has he offered any details on how he’d handle the war. Once a vocal supporter of Netanyahu, he’s recently said Israel is “losing the PR war” and should quickly wrap up the conflict — without specifying how or what it would mean for the hostages still in Gaza.

But Democrats and many foreign policy experts argue that there’s little doubt Trump would be more permissive toward Netanyahu — likely at the cost of further deteriorating the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, who played an outsized role in his Middle East policy when he was president, has openly discussed displacing residents of Gaza and sprucing up their land into more appealing and valuable beachfront property.

Some inside the Biden administration have tempered their own frustrations with the president's approach, current and former officials said, reasoning that longer-term stability in the region may depend heavily on Biden’s ability to win a second term.

“What is going on in Gaza is unspeakable,” Sanders said Thursday on the Pod Save America podcast when asked what case he'd make to voters reluctant to support Biden because of the war. “But all that I ask is let’s not make a horrible situation even worse. Trump will be worse on this issue, let alone every other issue.”

That political reality, Biden allies say, makes it all the more imperative that the White House’s changing posture toward Netanyahu become a permanent pivot. The U.S. still has concrete options for reining in Israel, from allowing and perhaps even supporting the passage of U.N. Security Council resolutions to withholding or enforcing conditions on military aid.

“I’m encouraged the president seems to recognize how he needs to shift his approach,” Duss said. “It’s slow. It’s too slow. But it has been a move.”

Myah Ward contributed to this report.