David Valadao, Rudy Salas advance to close California congressional election rematch

Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Bakersfield, are in for a toss-up November election rematch.

Valadao and Salas will advance from the March 5 primary, the Associated Press projected at 8:33 a.m. Pacific Time on Wednesday, indicating that Democrats escaped from the fearful prospect of not getting a candidate on the Nov. 5 general election ballot in this left-leaning congressional district.

With an estimated 97% of the votes counted, Valadao earned 33% and Salas got 30.6%, per the AP.

Republican Chris Mathys, a rancher and businessman, had 22.4% and State Sen. Melissa Hurtado, D-Bakersfield, had 14.1%.

National Democrats were concerned about getting locked out of California’s 22nd Congressional District, one of the most Democratic-leaning districts in the country currently held by a House Republican. Democrats are desperately trying to flip California’s 22nd Congressional District in November when nonpartisan election analysts predict the race will be a toss-up.

“Our job now is to mobilize a coalition of our friends, families, and Valley neighbors who are ready for a member of Congress who fights and delivers for them,” Salas said in a statement before the AP called the race Wednesday. “Together, we are going to win this race and deliver for hardworking families.”

In the lead up to March 5, national Democrats threw their weight behind Salas, who came within a 3% margin of Valadao in the November 2022 congressional election. But a challenge from Democrat Hurtado raised concerns that Democrats could be locked out of the primary altogether.

A Republican lockout seemed less likely, but not impossible. Mathys, an ardent Donald Trump supporter, challenged Valadao over his vote to impeach the former president.

“I’m once again humbled to receive the support of so many voters across the Central Valley,” Valadao said in a statement sent to The Bee after the AP called the race. “I’ll continue working hard to earn your support again in November.”

This and other 2024 battleground races in November will determine which party holds the House majority. Who holds House power in 2025 could go either way, analysts say.

The 22nd, a Latino-majority voting district, includes in most of Kings County and parts of Kern and Tulare counties. Voters here backed President Joe Biden over Trump by 13 percentage points in 2020. There are far more Democrats than Republicans registered to vote; 60% of voters are Latino and 36% are young.

But a tendency toward low turnout in the district — and what is expected to be historically low turnout statewide this primary election — has meant that local races are disproportionately determined by older, white, conservative voters.

Valadao, 46, has represented the area in Congress for the better part of a decade. Salas, 47, served in the Assembly for a decade.

The 22nd is one of several California toss-ups for the House. The 13th, located above the 22nd in the Central Valley, is also a toss-up rematch between Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, and former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced. Both moved on from the primary as they were the only candidates.

“It is going to be tougher for Republicans like John Duarte and David Valadao in the presidential cycle when the Latino vote is a higher share of the overall electorate,” said Dave Wasserman, an editor at The Cook Political Report, which analyzes elections. “And when Trump is on the top of the ticket, it really is up to these Republicans to separate themselves from Trump that they are going to win. That could be slightly easier for Valadao to do because he’s done it a lot before.”