The curious case of the slow-moving US aircraft carrier
Since the Hamas atrocities of 7 October, the US Navy has been proactively moving large numbers of warships around the Middle East with a view to deterring other regional actors from joining in the Hamas-Israel war. It has been a display of maritime manoeuvre at its most fundamental and effective – two nuclear powered aircraft carriers with air wings the size of most air forces, nine cruisers and destroyers and an unknown number of submarines: all essentially warning Iran and her terrorist proxies not to get involved.
It hasn’t worked perfectly. Between 17 October and today there have been 55 attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria. The US has conducted three strikes on weapons manufacturing capabilities supplying Iran and her proxies. There have been relatively low-level skirmishes between Hezbollah and Israeli forces in Southern Lebanon, and the Houthis of Yemen – another Iranian proxy – have not been put off at all from being as troublesome as they can. But there is no doubt that the level of containment has so far proven better than anyone dared hope as the conflict in Gaza began.
Tracking one of the nuclear powered aircraft carriers, USS Dwight D Eisenhower – Ike – helps paint the picture. She deployed earlier than scheduled and crossed the Atlantic while working up and conducting flying operations on the way. Ike’s rendezvous in the eastern Mediterranean with one of the few warships in the world that is bigger, USS Gerald R Ford, grabbed the headlines but was only part of the story.
Halfway across the Mediterranean Ike went past the USS Mount Whitney, a command-and-control ship released from Nato duties to coordinate the huge international armada in the eastern Med. This includes the French Tonnerre Amphibious Ready Group containing two heavies and two escorts. There are also the eight ships of Nato’s Standing Maritime Group 2 up in the Adriatic, consisting of two heavies and six escorts, commanded by a Royal Navy Commodore embarked in HMS Duncan.
The UK’s Littoral Response Group is also in the area with two ships from the Royal Fleet Auxiliary (RFA) who have been there from the start, busily working up plans to evacuate large groups of people should that be needed. These aren’t warships, but they do have a force of Royal Marine Commandos aboard who can provide security for the shore end of any evacuation operation.
Dotted about are a further eleven ships of the US Navy support and sealift commands who between them have five escorts from three different countries. In total there are over forty warships, supply ships and submarines from thirteen different countries operating in eastern Mediterranean waters.
Once through the Suez Canal and into the Red Sea, Ike would have encountered two large US amphibious ships with elements of the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (26 MEU) aboard, USS Bataan and USS Carter Hall, two US destroyers and three Israeli corvettes.
Things here were even more interesting because now Ike was in range of Houthi missiles and drones being fired at southern Israel. Abdulmalik al-Houthi made it clear as soon as this conflict began that he was joining in when the Houthis fired four or five cruise missiles and nineteen drones up the Red Sea towards Israel. He doubled down on this recently saying, “our eyes are open to constantly monitor and search for any Israeli ship in the Red Sea, especially in Bab-el-Mandeb, and near Yemeni regional waters,” before firing yet another drone, this time in the direction of the US destroyer Thomas Hudner (which she knocked down). The Bab-el-Mandeb (the “Gate of Tears”) is the narrow strait at the southern end of the Red Sea, and the Houthis control the Yemeni side of it.
Three things are clear right now. First, the Houthis have not been deterred by the increasing naval presence in the area – it seems they see it as a challenge. Second, efforts to interdict Iranian weapons reaching the Houthis in Western Yemen have not worked – their numbers and sophistication have increased. Third, Ike and her group have now passed through the Bab-el-Mandeb without, reportedly, having any problems.
What is not clear is whether there were any counter-Houthi strikes or operations as Ike and her group went through the Red Sea. A landing by the Marines of the 26th MEU might be seen as overly interventionist, but air or missile strikes would certainly seem possible. And there might have been – or may yet be – completely covert, undisclosed operations ashore. As well as the Ike group and the Marines, the US has an Ohio-class SSGN submarine in the area. This carries not only a massive arsenal of Tomahawk cruise missiles, but a special operations force of Navy SEALs plus a mini-submarine to take them ashore if need be. Such an underwater intrusion would be very difficult to detect.
Ike certainly stayed longer in the Red Sea than one would expect if she was simply passing through. Maybe Abdulmalik al-Houthi’s bombast and recent drone firing is him lashing out with whatever is left. Maybe Ike facilitated some Saudi strikes but minimised US footprint for fear of getting involved ashore. Maybe the carrier merely hung around in case a SEAL covert operation went wrong, or was waiting until the Bab-el-Mandeb area had been made safe for her to pass. Or maybe the US Navy is in purely defensive mode and only engaging targets when they are in the air.
The accurate answer to this will only be known inside the Pentagon but the frequency of Houthi missile attacks over the next few weeks might give us a clue.
The Hudner shoot-down was an interesting development as that drone was coming at the ship, as distinct from the Carney engagements against crossing targets fired at Israel. The US Department of Defence has since issued a statement that the latest Houthi drone wasn’t coming directly at the Hudner (which they would say under the current theme of de-escalation) but the American captain considered the danger serious enough to knock it down, so the difference between what happened and being shot at would seem to be small.
It seems unlikely that the US Navy’s tolerance for being shot at will be particularly extensive. In fact, one certainty when fighting them is that you only get to shoot at them so many times before some form of retribution is authorised. Back in 2017, after several Houthi cruise missile attacks aimed at US warships near the Bab-el-Mandeb, a US destroyer launched Tomahawks and took out all the Houthis’ radar stations, putting an end (for a while) to their ability to cause trouble in the area.
Some form of action against the Houthis may be needed simply for self defence. US warships equipped with the Aegis combat system are extremely adept at missile-to-missile engagements, they have proven this many times. However, there is no such thing in anti-air warfare as a 100 per cent ‘probability of kill’ – missile systems don’t work that way. If the Houthis are permitted to keep taking pot shots at US ships, eventually they will get lucky: so they probably won’t be permitted to, or have already had their options severely cut back.
Meanwhile, Ike and her group are now reportedly just outside the Strait of Hormuz, the entrance to the Gulf. This will severely curtail the Iranians’ ability to interfere with shipping there, which ought to calm the jittery world oil and gas markets at least. It also swings the balance of naval power in the Gulf firmly back to the West, as the absence of US warships had meant that just lately China ruled the waves there.
The option is open for Ike to carry on into the Gulf itself, which would make her the first US carrier there in three years. That would offer various options including moving up to extend an air umbrella over recently-attacked US bases in Iraq.
As for the Houthis, I would be very surprised if they pose as much of a menace to Israel and to shipping in the Bab-el-Mandeb as they did a few weeks ago.
It would seem that the rules-based international order isn’t dead yet: and as ever, one of its primary backers is the US Navy.
Tom Sharpe is a former Royal Navy officer and warship captain
