CU study: Social distancing and vaccines prevented 800K deaths at high cost

Heather Willard
·2 min read
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DENVER (KDVR) — How effective were vaccine mandates and social distancing? That’s the question researchers at the University of Colorado Boulder and the University of California Los Angeles looked into using national data.

The researchers looked at when Americans were either first infected with COVID-19 or were vaccinated. Then they compared those data tables with mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to see how effective social behaviors and vaccines were in preventing deaths.

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The teams found that the vaccine prevented roughly 800,000 deaths from the virus, but lockdowns and school closures took a big toll on society. The teams also stated that:

  • 68% of Americans were vaccinated before they were infected

  • 1.98 million would have died without vaccines or changed behaviors

  • 273,000 preventable deaths due to declining vaccine uptake in late 2021

  • 60,000 would have died each day at the pandemic’s peak without behavioral changes

The paper was published in the spring edition of Brookings Papers on Economic Activity.

The study authors attributed behavioral changes to why 68% of Americans were vaccinated before getting infected.

“Our work shows that behavior change can be a powerful force for slowing the spread of a dangerous and infectious respiratory disease for a long time,” study co-author Stephen Kissler, an assistant professor of computer science at CU Boulder, said in a university release. “But with COVID-19, it came at a tremendous economic, social and human cost.”

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The study authors used national data from blood samples to estimate the number of people infected or vaccinated at various points from February 2020 to February 2024, in addition to mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Then, using computer models, the study authors calculated how many people would have died if no one had done things like wear masks or practice social distancing, or if the vaccines never came. The researchers found that vaccines and behavioral changes were linked.

“Without vaccines, behavior alone would have postponed infections, but in the end, nearly everyone would have been infected and subject to a high infection fatality rate from that first infection,” they wrote. “Without a behavioral response, vaccines would have come too late to save lives.”

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The study’s authors, Kissler and Andrew Atkeson, both expressed surprise at how big an impact behavior changes had, as pre-pandemic studies had forecasted their impact would be minimal and short-lived. That said, the authors worry that if another pandemic were to emerge, Americans would be less willing to stay home.

“My concern is that the next pandemic will be deadlier, but people will ignore it because they will say, ‘Oh, we overdid it during COVID,’” said Atkeson, a professor of economics at UCLA.

The authors estimate a slowed vaccine uptake in the second half of 2021 cost an additional 273,000 deaths.

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