Republicans dodge Kansas nightmare as Marshall defeats Kobach

Rep. Roger Marshall won the GOP primary for an open Senate seat in Kansas on Tuesday, turning aside the controversial Kris Kobach — to the relief of Republicans concerned that Kobach could put not just the state but the party's Senate majority at risk this fall.

With nearly all the votes tallied, Marshall had 40 percent of the vote, to only 26 percent for Kobach. The result was a more decisive victory for Marshall than expected by many Republicans, who had predicted with deep concern that the race was a tossup going into Tuesday.

GOP leaders had been outspoken in their opposition to Kobach since he entered the race last summer, but failed in their efforts to steer the race away from him, leaving it up in the air on primary night. Party officials couldn’t convince Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to run, and some eventually consolidated behind Rep. Roger Marshall in the closing weeks of the race.

But President Donald Trump did not endorse or oppose anyone, frustrating some Republicans who thought he could have ended the concern by weighing in.

Republicans got another piece of good news in Kansas on Tuesday, when Rep. Steve Watkins was ousted in his primary by state Treasurer Jake LaTurner, who has seized on Watkins’ litany of ethical and legal transgressions, including felony charges of voter fraud in the closing weeks of the primary. Some Republicans feared Watkins' renomination could have jeopardized the party's hold on an otherwise GOP-leaning House seat.

Both the House and Senate primaries have been expensive, with a flurry of late spending and a crowded field of candidates leaving the threshold for victory lower and the outcome less certain. It’s also possible that the massive increase in absentee ballots could delay results for several days as all votes are counted; ballots postmarked on Tuesday can still be counted as long as they are received by the end of the week.

In the Senate race, nearly $5 million in spending from a super PAC with Democratic ties upended the contest’s final month. The group's ads bashed Marshall, hurting his image while lifting Kobach up as a pro-Trump conservative. The group, which will not reveal the source of its funding until later this month, was by far the biggest spender in the Republican primary, outspending all GOP outside groups and campaigns. Republicans repeatedly tied the super PAC to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, though it will not have to reveal the source of its funding until later this month.

"Chuck Schumer spent over $5 [million] trying to impact GOP primary voters, which is another chapter in this cycle’s edition of 'Schumer's follies,'" said Scott Reed, the chief political strategist at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which backed Marshall.

Marshall's victory leaves Republicans confident in their ability to retain the seat this fall. A Kobach win would have forced Senate Republicans to face a difficult choice between supporting a candidate whom they have publicly bashed as unelectable, or leaving the state to chance with their already tenuous majority in peril.

"Kansas Republicans knew what was at stake in this primary, and tonight's results prove voters will reject any Democrat efforts to buy this seat," said Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), the National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman. "I'm more confident than ever Kansas will remain part of the Republican Senate majority."

Marshall, a two-term congressman, garnered support from across the spectrum after Pompeo declined to run: The Chamber of Commerce spent on his behalf, and the anti-abortion group Kansas for Life and the agricultural heavy Kansas Farm Bureau endorsed him. Newt Gingrich, the former speaker of the House, sent a robocall on his behalf late last week. Senate Leadership Fund, which is run by allies to Majority Leader Mitch McConnell spent nearly $2 million on positive ads for him.

Kobach brushed aside criticism over his loss in the gubernatorial race two years ago and said a federal race with control of the Senate in play — and Trump on the ballot — would be different.

Marshall will face Barbara Bollier, a state senator, physician and former Republican who officially won the Democratic nomination Tuesday after running against only nominal opposition. Bollier has outraised all of her potential GOP opponents, and her campaign announced $4.5 million on hand as of primary night, a large advantage over any of her potential opponents.

She has been running weeks worth of positive TV ads while Republicans fight it out. Bollier in an interview Tuesday that she believed the race would be competitive regardless of the result in the GOP primary.

“I'm just looking out for what's best for the people of Kansas, and what I have seen on the other side, all of the opponents, they're just about partisan politics. That's their top priority,” Bollier said. She called herself independent and said she wouldn’t be afraid to disagree with her party leadership. Asked specifically where she disagreed, she cited her opposition to Medicare for All and support of a public health care option, though that position is held by most of her party’s Senate candidates.

In the Topeka area, Watkins saw his brief congressional career end after only one term. An Army veteran and Iditarod racer, Watkins has been on shaky political footing since he won the district by 1 point in 2018, narrowly beating Democrat Paul Davis in a district that Trump carried by 18 points.

Bashing his poor fundraising and coalition building, former Gov. Jeff Colyer, whom Kobach defeated in the 2018 primary, personally enticed LaTurner out of the Senate race where he was dividing the anti-Kobach race and into the 2nd District.

LaTurner had a well-funded operation and has received outside help from a super PAC. But his biggest break came last month, when the Shawnee County district attorney charged Watkins with three felony counts of voter fraud, a move that forced him to step down from his House committee assignments and out of the National Republican Congressional Committee’s Patriot Program for endangered incumbents.

LaTurner will face Topeka Mayor Michelle De La Isla, who won Tuesday's Democratic primary.

Elsewhere in the Midwest, another House incumbent. Democratic Rep. Lacy Clay, a St. Louis fixture whose family has represented the area since the late 1960s, narrowly lost to Cori Bush, a nurse and Black Lives Matter activist. Bush was endorsed by the Justice Democrats and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), and her win is a resounding victory for progressives who were hoping to capitalize on their momentum from New York primaries.

But it will also further worsen the feud between the left and the Congressional Black Caucus, of which Clay's father was a founding member.

In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a member of the “Squad,” faced a rematch with Detroit City Council President Brenda Jones. Jones served a brief stint in Congress in 2018 after she won the special election to replace former Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.). But Tlaib won the primary election, held on the same day, to represent the seat for a full term in Congress. Few votes had been tallied in the race as of early Wednesday morning.

Republicans also picked battleground nominees in top House battlegrounds held by Reps. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), Elissa Slokins (D-Mich.) and Tom O’Halleran (D-Ariz.), but no winners were determined as of early Wednesday morning.

Washington state’s top-two primaries set up a rematch between Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) and 2018 Democratic nominee Carolyn Long. And in Arizona, Democrats nominated an emergency room physician, Hiral Tiprineni, to take on embattled GOP Rep. David Schweikert.

Elsewhere on the Senate map, contests in Arizona and Michigan were locked in. In Arizona, appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally easily won her primary ahead of her special-election matchup against Democrat Mark Kelly in the fall. And in Michigan, both Democratic Sen. Gary Peters and Republican John James were unopposed.

Tuesday’s primaries also set up two governor’s races for the fall. In Missouri, GOP Gov. Mike Parson and Democratic state Auditor Nicole Galloway finalized their long-awaited matchup, after each won primaries on Tuesday. And in Washington, Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee will face Loren Culp, a local police chief, in November.