COVID-19 data: No crest yet in the region's omicron wave

Jan. 28—MANKATO — An ugly week of COVID-19 metrics indicated south-central Minnesota hasn't reached the peak of the omicron-driven wave.

Area counties combined for 3,486 newly confirmed cases between Jan. 22-28, about a 46% increase from the prior week, according to Minnesota Department of Health data. The prior week had a smaller percentage increase, 39%, offering hope the omicron variant's wave was slowing down.

Instead, cases rose and positivity rates skyrocketed to unprecedented levels this week.

The south-central region also had a newly confirmed death Friday, bringing January's toll to 30. The latest fatality occurred in a Martin County resident between 95-99 years old.

The person was among 43 confirmed COVID-19 deaths statewide, with the ages ranging from 25-29 to 100-plus. Minnesota's pandemic death toll rose to 11,382.

South-central Minnesota has had 449 confirmed COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic. Martin County's 54 deaths from the illness give it the third-highest death rate among area counties.

The region's case and positivity rate spikes, two key metrics in tracking COVID-19 waves, appear partly related to a large number of backlogged cases from prior weeks being confirmed this week. Backlogged case issues date back a month or so, however, giving recent weeks comparable characteristics.

This week's case spike resulted in a 24.8% positivity rate for the nine-county region, the highest yet recorded during the pandemic. Positivity rates at 5% or below are considered encouraging.

Blue Earth County's rate was a staggering 28.8%, while Nicollet County's was 27.5%. The lowest positivity rate in the county was 16.5% in Brown County.

Considering how many backlogged cases there were and how high case counts and positivity rates are, local data analyst Derek J. Wingert said he suspects next week could be when the south-central region's COVID-19 trends start to flatten — like what happened in the metro area about in mid-January.

Wingert, who tracked COVID-19 data with the COVID Tracking Project, was hoping the flattening would start this week, but "pretty horrible" numbers delayed it at least another week.

"It looks like (the metro area is) turning the corner, or already did," he said. "If we consider that it takes a while for those trends to find us, there's hope that in the very near future we'll also be celebrating that rounding-the-bend situation."

Even with progress elsewhere in the state, COVID-19 cases and positivity rates remain high across the board. Wingert pointed out no Minnesota county had a positivity rate below 7% this week, and only two had rates below 10%.

More cases and higher positivity rates have generally correlated to more hospitalizations, a concern when hospital capacities remain tight statewide. Overall hospitalizations and intensive care unit hospitalizations dipped slightly statewide this week, a result of the Twin Cities metro area being further along in its omicron wave than the south-central region.

Area counties, along with other regions outside the metro area, started omicron case spikes after the Twin Cities did. The spike in south-central Minnesota reached its highest point yet this week, with Blue Earth County's 38% increase raising its weekly case total to 1,151.

Blue Earth County actually tied with Nicollet County in having the smallest percentage increase in cases among the nine area counties. Waseca County's 84% increase, bringing its weekly case total to 303, was the biggest percentage jump.

The full list of confirmed cases by county this week, along with the percentage increase compared to the previous week, includes:

—Blue Earth County — 1,151, 38%

—Nicollet County — 510, 38%

—Brown County — 361, 43%

—Le Sueur County — 306, 34%

—Martin County — 279, 56%

—Waseca County — 303, 84%

—Watonwan County — 191, 41%

—Faribault County — 232, 73%

—Sibley County — 153, 63%

Follow Brian Arola @BrianArola