Could two referendums on Hillsborough’s ballot spell doom for both?

The showdown played out publicly during a Hillsborough County Commission meeting earlier this year.

Commissioners were discussing whether to seek voter approval to extend a half-cent sales tax that for nearly 30 years has paid for everything from Raymond James Stadium to fire stations, libraries, parks, police and court facilities — with 25% going to schools.

Attending the meeting: The superintendent of the Hillsborough County School District, which was planning its own property tax referendum so it could pay higher wages to school employees.

Hillsborough Commission chairperson Ken Hagan and others have expressed concerns that voters might reject two requests on the same ballot — both that would benefit schools — if they viewed the taxes as “double dipping.”

That day, Commissioner Michael Owen was blunt:

“What I would like is, I would like you guys not to put a (property tax) increase on the ballot,” Owen told Superintendent Van Ayres. If Ayres and the school district backed off their plans, that could help persuade him to vote for a sales tax that would continue to benefit schools, Owen said.

Owen’s gambit failed. Ayres and the district pushed forward with a plan for a property tax increase to pay teachers higher salaries in a county that competes with other districts that have this tax. Now it’s headed for the same November ballot as the county’s renewal of its Community Investment Tax, which this time has a much smaller contribution to schools.

The looming electoral showdown of the two referendums have many worried that voters will choose only one or reject both.

“I think it’s something of a headwind on both efforts that they’re on the ballot at the same time,” said Commissioner Harry Cohen, who also said both measures should pass on their merits. “I wish things were different but they’re not.”

Supporters of the schools tax, a coalition that includes parent groups and teachers’ union leaders, are trying to be optimistic. They note that in 2018 voters approved a half-cent sales surtax to purchase air conditioners and pay for other building and equipment needs for schools at the same time as a transportation tax referendum was on the ballot.

Even though those taxes were for distinctly different purposes, some predicted failure. But both succeeded, and if not for a legal challenge to the transportation tax, both would remain in effect.

Advocates say that this year, the district’s property tax increase for teacher pay and the county’s sales tax extension that includes 5% for school construction address two separate needs.

“Taxpayers are going to see the value in supporting education,” said Ellen Lyons, a leader in the county Parent Teacher Association who will be involved in the schools tax campaign. “They will see the taxes as two separate issues. But I cannot see them voting for one and not the other.”

People with expertise in voter behavior say it’s complicated.

“It can cut both ways,” said J. Edwin Benton, professor of political science and public administration at the University of South Florida. “It’s one of these issues, either you’re hot or you’re cold on it as a citizen. Some people, they’re willing to dig a little deeper, pay a little bit more for education.”

Voters may also consider how they think school officials have handled their budgets in the past — which this year is $4 billion. “Many people are going to say: how well has the school district spent their money?” said Benton.

Having both measures before the voters, Benton said, is “taking a big chance. It’s like playing Russian roulette. Strategically, I don’t think it was a good thing.”

Working in the taxes’ favor is the fact that, in Florida and elsewhere, voters on average like to support their community schools.

“Generally, education requests for taxpayers to increase their tax rate, when it ‘s going to go to education, they tend to be wildly popular,” said Patrick Flavin, political science professor at Baylor University. “Education is right near the top of the list as to what people are willing to pay for.”

Flavin noted voters’ considerations could go beyond education: “Places with better schools tend to have higher property values,” he said. “That’s sometimes used in campaigns for these property tax referendums, to point out it’s an investment not only in the schools themselves but in how the county is viewed.”

The need for the schools tax could also be a selling point: “Regardless of where people stand politically, they are generally supportive of teachers and generally view them as underpaid,” Flavin said.

The success of both tax campaigns hinges on many factors that are difficult to predict, such as the numbers of voters who show up to support the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates and the turnout by voters with strong opinions about abortion rights and recreational marijuana on the ballot. Also, since 2018, voters have endured rising costs for everything from food to housing to car and home insurance. Interest rates are much higher, too, leading to elevated mortgage payments.

Success may also depend on whether the advocates of the two taxes can collaborate — or at least coexist without tearing each other down.

Christina Barker, co-founder of the All For Transportation ballot initiative in 2018, said the schools tax and transportation tax campaigns managed to do just that.

”We did press conferences together,” Barker said. “I would do presentations right behind former superintendent Jeff Eakins; they would do them after us.”

The challenge for both ballot measures is to explain the nuances of each tax, she said. “Voters do need to understand that they’re voting for two different things,” she said — teacher salaries with one, and with the other, school buildings along with many other nonschool projects in unincorporated Hillsborough County and the cities of Tampa, Temple Terrace and Plant City.

“It can be done,” Barker said.

School supporters are mindful that just because education tends to be a popular cause doesn’t guarantee a win in the voting booth. Stung by a 591-vote defeat of another referendum to benefit teacher pay two years ago, supporters are doing things differently. Instead of leaving the campaign to an out-of-town organizer hired by the superintendent, they are forming at least one political action committee, and perhaps multiple committees, using more of a grassroots approach.

School board members Nadia Combs and Jessica Vaughn said they believe this year that voters with children in the schools might be more aware of the teacher shortage. Vaughn said that in 2022 families were coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic and were less involved in schools.

Lyons said it’s important that the tax not become a partisan issue.

But precinct results from 2022 suggest it is. The referendum was successful in Democratic urban neighborhoods, in New Tampa, parts of South Tampa and Westchase. In precincts to the north and west of the University of South Florida, it won with more than 80% of the vote.

But the tax failed in many rural precincts, which tend to vote Republican. It had less than 30% approval in precincts around Plant City, Dover and Thonotasassa, Ruskin, Balm and Apollo Beach.

The half-penny Community Investment Tax, which expires in 2026, passed in 1996 with 53% of the vote. While it famously built the football stadium where the Buccaneers play, it also funded more than $2.6 billion in projects including public utilities, roads, sidewalks and bridges. The tax’s architect, the late Republican County Commissioner Joe Chillura, compared it to a popular buffet restaurant called Sweet Tomatoes where “everybody gets a little bit of something, even if they don’t like the other something.” Supporters call it critical to the county’s future.

Commissioner Gwen Myers said she expects cooperation between the two ballot campaigns, particularly after the primary election, when things rev up.

“Both of them are very worthy,” she said.