How could population changes impact upcoming elections in Pennsylvania: Report
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(WHTM) — As the march towards the 2024 presidential election continues, many eyes are on the battleground state of Pennsylvania.
In a report released Thursday, the Franklin and Marshall University Center for Opinion Research examined new census data to determine how county-level population changes in the Keystone State since 2020 could impact this year’s election results.
President Joe Biden won the state by a narrow majority in 2020, winning 50.01% compared to former president Donald Trump’s 48.84%.
According to the Center’s report, 2024 could be an even closer race.
This is due, the Center says, to the state’s uneven levels of out-migration since 2020, which was higher in Biden-won counties.
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This Week in Pennsylvania
According to the Center, while the aggregate population of the counties that voted for Trump in 2020 has increased by about 4,500, the aggregate population of the 13 counties that voted for Biden declined by more than 45,000.
The Center attributes the decline to the largest losses, which came from Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties.
The Center notes that while the counties that were won by Joe Biden in 2020 still represent a majority of the state’s population (55.6%) and voters (56.9%), the population changes of the last four years, increase the chance
According to the Center, the median margin of victory in the 54 counties Trump won was about 40 points, while the median for Biden was only 8 points.
Donald Trump holding slim lead over Joe Biden in Pennsylvania: Emerson College Poll
A recent Emerson College/abc27/The Hill poll of 1,000 registered Pennsylvania voters has Trump leading Biden by 47% to 43%. Ten percent were undecided with a margin of error of +/- 3%.
In the Midstate, all counties (Adams, Cumberland, Franklin, Fulton, Juniata, Lancaster, Lebanon, Mifflin, Perry and York) voted for Trump except for Dauphin County, which voted for Biden.
Annual Midstate Resident Population Change, July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023
County | Number | Percent |
Adams | 789 | + 0.7% |
Cumberland | 2,206 | +0.8% |
Dauphin | 547 | +0.2% |
Franklin | 903 | +0.6% |
Fulton | -86 | -0.6% |
Juniata | -38 | -0.2% |
Lancaster | 1,929 | 0.3% |
Lebanon | 350 | 0.2% |
Mifflin | -62 | -0.1% |
Perry | -30 | -0.1% |
York | 3,591 | 0.8% |
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