Who could be in and out with the Patriots come free agency?

Going into the 2016 season it is clear this could be the last go around for this Patriots’ group on defense. After all, their defense is littered with upcoming free agents and most of them play critical roles in the success of this unit. The Patriots also possess free agents that are non-defensive players, but most of the key pieces play on the defense.

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With that said the Patriots overall possess 20 free agents. This does seem like an overwhelming number, but remember that there are different types of free agents. Of the 20 free agents for New England, three are Exclusive Rights Free Agents (Brandon King, Michael Williams, Justin Coleman), two are restricted free agents (Malcolm Butler and Cameron Fleming) and one has an option which doesn’t necessarily make him a free agent, but for the purpose of this exercise I have decided to include him (Alan Branch).

That leaves the other 14 free agents as honest to God free agents. That list includes the following: Dont’a Hightower, James Develin, Marcus Cannon, Chris Long, Jabaal Sheard, LeGarrette Blount, Barkevious Mingo, Jonathan Cooper, Jamie Collins, Logan Ryan, Duron Harmon, Martellus Bennett, Brandon Bolden, and Sebastian Vollmer.

For the following list I will not be including any of the exclusive rights free agents nor will I be including the restricted free agents (sorry, Malcolm). Here’s how I see the Patriots examining their free agents. Remember, this is not how I value them, this is how I see the Patriots valuing them.

Note: The Patriots have enough cap space to sign all core players, just a question how much they are willing to extend themselves.

How can we make this happen?:

Don’t’a Hightower, LB: Hightower is the quintessential Patriot in that he is one of their leaders, he plays through pain, he is smart, versatile, and helps others line up. He is fantastic against the run (and for anyone that questions what an even half strength Hightower can do, look at last year’s Broncos’ game before and after Hightower left) and is one of the top blitzing linebackers in the league with power, speed, and hand technique to go with it.

Perhaps the highest vote of confidence you can give him is that his locker is one formally held by top leaders on the Patriots such as Jerod Mayo, Willie McGinest, and Teddy Bruschi to name a few. There are few guys in this “pay whatever it takes” category (Devin McCourty being the latest), but Hightower is in that group. Only thing that knocks him down a little are durability questions.

We want you, but it depends, how much?:

Jamie Collins, LB: Collins is a fantastic player and has proven to be more durable than Hightower, but I think there is a price the Patriots may step away from the table. There is not debating the value of Collins and how his athleticism helps the Patriots play so many different schemes. However one problem is that Collins is very inconsistent with him looking like the top linebacker some days and disappearing a little on some days. I think Collins is playing elsewhere next year, but I hope I am wrong. This guy is a special talent and he may even be signed as a pass rusher by someone because there is definitely some untapped potential there.

Jabaal Sheard, DE: Sheard has been one of the best free agent signings in some time for the Patriots as without him the Patriots would have been unable to trade Chandler Jones. After toiling away in Cleveland, Sheard was rescued by the Patriots and he rewarded them with a first season that saw him ranked as the 59th best player in all of football by Pro Football Focus.

Sheard is very good against the run and can be dominant as a pass rusher. He also has the ability to bump down and rush from the interior because of his hands and power. If I was running the Patriots, Sheard would be one of the first calls I made after the season because although Collins and Hightower get the hype, Sheard may be the second most important free agent the Patriots have. Simply put, people that put pressure on the quarterback, can rush from the interior or end, and hold up against the run are few and far between.

Logan Ryan, CB: I thought about putting Ryan in the next category, but he has been so good it would be hard to see him go. Ryan was ranked as the eighth best corner in all of football last year by Pro Football Focus, a compliment to his work ethic, film study, and ability to play press man coverage.

Losing Ryan would hurt tremendously as he is the matchup choice against bigger receivers for his unique ball skills. Ryan also plays very well at the line of scrimmage and is a willing tackler in run support making him a prototypical Belichick corner. Ryan seems likely to get a deal in the four to six year range and $5-7.5 million dollar per year range. The question is if Belichick values him that highly or if Ryan gets a huge offer elsewhere. One wild card is how the Patriots view Cyrus Jones, their top draft pick from a year ago.

Martellus Bennett, TE: Going into this year, everyone expected big things from Bennett and to this point, he has delivered. Bennett has a unique personality, one that hasn’t been seen in the Patriots’ locker room since Aqib Talib roamed the defensive backfield. Bennett’s blocking skills have surprised with him just absolutely mashing defenders at times and never once complaining. His numbers as well as his targets should go way up when Tom Brady returns this week and they run their two tight-end sets. Bennett seems like someone that may consider returning at a slightly below market rate to continue winning, but if he cashes in, the Patriots will definitely be outbid.

James Develin, FB: There aren’t many stats or big numbers Develin accumulates, but he is most likely not going anywhere. Belichick, Brady and others have routinely sung his praise for his workman-like effort and thankless job of lead blocking and cleaning out the hole on run plays. Develin also has great hands when asked to run routes. Develin also comes with a very small cost year in and year out due to his limited statistics which makes him cost effective. If there is one player in this group I feel confident in saying that will be back next season, I think it is Develin.

Barkevious Mingo, LB/ST: Mingo makes this section of the list because he is a strictly special teamer at this point. However, if he eventually takes snaps at linebacker and rushes the passer more often, there is a chance that like Akeem Ayers, he could price himself out of New England’s price range. Mingo has been a very good special teamer thus far in his time with the Pats playing on all four units and showing a good work ethic. I think there is more to come for Mingo, but if he is just a special teamer I feel confident that Belichick will have him back. However, one wild card is Bob Quinn in Detroit, who is a former Patriots’ disciple, as he was said to have the second highest offer for Mingo when the Browns had him on the trading block.

Probably priced out of Foxborough:

Duron Harmon, S: Harmon is the most likely to leave and find a big deal out of all the free agents here. The reason is simple in that Harmon is a starting caliber safety and despite him playing starting caliber snaps right now, the Patriots most likely will not give him the $5-7 million dollar deal per year that he will want. Harmon also has some weaknesses that can be exploited in that he isn’t always a willing tackler in run support, can take bad angles, and misses a substantial amount of tackles. Look for Harmon to land a deal somewhere playing the free safety position and playing center field which is his strength.

Chris Long, DE: Long came to Foxborough for less money to play for a winner and to try to become the player he was early on in his Rams’ career. As of now, Long has done that and then some consistently providing pressure and playing better than anyone could have hoped against the run. Long has earned a big payday as of now, the only question is if he wants to max out his value or if he wants to try and make it work with the Patriots. If it is the latter, he would need to accept less than the market value, and most likely a couple million per year less.

LeGarrette Blount, RB: Blount is coming off one of the best starts in his career or at least since his early Tampa days. However, I think the Patriots look to draft a running back early next year and look to move on from Blount despite his start. Blount also seems likely to get a slight boost from his minimum salary deal and not sure the Patriots will play ball.

Not interested, moving on:

Jonathan Cooper, G: Cooper came with a lot of fanfare and hope that with Scarnecchia back as coach he could fix Cooper and help him realize his enormous top 10 potential. Unfortunately injuries keep on holding him back.

Sebastian Vollmer, RT: Vollmer has been fantastic his whole Patriots’ career and one of the better right tackles ever since he was drafted. However injuries have now grabbed hold of his career and he seems closer to retirement than a starting job.

Brandon Bolden, RB: Bolden was on the ropes for a roster spot in training camp and although he provides immense special teams value, the Patriots have enough special teamers. Also of note is that Bolden seemed to lose some trust from coaches as far as snaps at halfback.

Note: Information from Pro Football Focus was used in this piece.

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