Could Joe Biden Defeat Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Michael Catalini, Alex Roarty and Peter Bell

How likely is it that Joe Biden could defeat Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination?

DEMOCRATS (88 VOTES)

Very likely: 3%
Likely: 6%
Unlikely: 39%
Very unlikely: 52%

Likely

"Especially if Hillary skips Iowa, foreshadowing wholesale vs. retail politics."

Unlikely

"The outcome of a Joe-versus-Hillary contest seems clear, but somehow the race will become more complicated. There could be both generational and/or ideological challenges."

"The basic dynamic would have to change due to some major event."

"I never underestimate the ability of the Clinton folks to misread the primaries, but Biden has never been known for his campaign acumen either."

"Unlikely that he could win, but he deserves the chance if he wants to."

"It's been a good ride, but the Hillary Train is already picking up steam and won't be stopped."

"If HRC treats it as a coronation, he may look like a better alternative."

"You didn't offer an additional choice, which is actually the one that is closest to the truth: Who could possibly know?"

Very unlikely

"Biden lacks the depth of support to give Hillary a real run."

"If she is beaten, it won't be by someone of her generation."

"Republicans advance like the Rotary Club. Democrats like a scrap, but this scrap isn't going to happen."

"History has shown us that a cup of this Joe gets cold in a hurry."

"There is literally no chance."

"It's Hillary's office to win. How can Biden, as good as he is, win when Hillary will get 90 percent of the women voters?"

"He's run many times before, never with any success with voters or funders."

"Hillary Clinton is as close to a consensus presidential nominee as there has been within either party in a long time."

 

How likely is it that Joe Biden could defeat Hillary Rodham Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination?

REPUBLICANS (97 VOTES)

Very likely: 1%
Likely: 8%
Unlikely: 33%
Very unlikely: 58%

Very likely

"No one in D.C. believes this, but the Benghazi story will ultimately come out, and it will be enough to keep Hillary from running."

Likely

"If Biden can get the Obama database, he will have a real leg up on the entire field."

"Hillary was a shoo-in in 2008 as well."

Unlikely

"Elizabeth Warren is a greater threat."

"There appears to be strong residual loyalty to Hillary among establishment Democrats, which probably trumps the affection that this same group holds for Biden."

"Hard to see Biden as the real Hillary alternative."

"They like him, but not as president."

"He was just sane enough to get the VP nod, so who knows?"

Very unlikely

"Clinton has more baggage than generally thought, but malaprop Joe would be no match."

"Clinton is beatable, but not by Biden. He's just too goofy."

"Biden is even more yesterday's story than the Clintons."

"There will rise up some new shiny face to eclipse the aged and shopworn Hillary, but it isn't Joe Biden."

"People are being polite to him these days, but they will get blunt if needed: Retire, Joe."

"The problem the Dems have is that they must nominate an African-American or a woman. No more old white guys."

"Joe would be lucky to win Scranton, Pa."

"Next question."

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Democratic Political Insiders Jill Alper, John Anzalone, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Matt Bennett, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Stephanie Bosh, Paul Brathwaite, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Guy Cecil, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Larry Cohen, Jerry Crawford, Brendan Daly, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Howard Dean, Scott DeFife, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, David Di Martino, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Patrick Dorton, Pat Dujakovich, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Jim Fleischmann, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Jeffrey Forbes, Vincent Frillici, Gina Glantz, Niles Godes, John Michael Gonzalez, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Larry Grisolano, Michael Gronstal, Lisa Grove, Marcia Hale, Jill Hanauer, Dick Harpootlian, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Doug Hattaway, Mike Henry, Karen Hicks, Leo Hindery Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Lisa Kountoupes, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Penny Lee, Chris Lehane, Jeff Link, Bob Maloney, Jim Manley, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Keith Mason, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Steve McMahon, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Michael Meehan, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Michael Monroe, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, Tony Podesta, Jefrey Pollock, Jack Quinn, Larry Rasky, Mame Reiley, Ed Rendell, Steve Ricchetti, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, Ryan Rudominer, John Ryan, Michael Sargeant, Stephanie Schriock, Terry Shumaker, Sean Sinclair, Phil Singer, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Greg Speed, Darry Sragow, Ken Strasma, Doug Thornell, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Rick Wiener, James Williams, JoDee Winterhof, Brian Wolff, Jon Youngdahl, and Jim Zogby.

GOP Political Insiders Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Brian Baker, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Paul Bennecke, Clark Benson, Wayne Berman, Brian Bieron, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Al Cardenas, Danny Carroll, Alex Castellanos, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Jonathan Collegio, Rob Collins, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Scott Cottington, Jay Cranford, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Tom Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Debi Durham, Sara Fagen, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Mindy Finn, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Bruce A. Gates, Sam Geduldig, Adam Geller, Benjamin Ginsberg, David Girard-diCarlo, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Ed Ingle, Jim Innocenzi, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris LaCivita, Jim Lake, Steven Law, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Brian McCormack, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Lisa Camooso Miller, Tim Morrison, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Todd Olsen, Kevin O'Neill, Connie Partoyan, Billy Piper, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Tom Reynolds, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Kevin Shuvalov, Don Sipple, Ken Spain, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Terry Sullivan, David Tamasi, Eric Tanenblatt, Richard Temple, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Stewart Verdery, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Lezlee Westine, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, Fred Wszolek, and Matthew Zablud.