Could this be Dana Ford's final week as the Missouri State men's basketball coach?

UPDATE: Missouri State AD tweets there is 'much to be excited about' in future under Dana Ford

The future of the Missouri State men’s basketball program under Dana Ford will be a topic of conversation throughout the next week and the hours following whenever the Bears’ season concludes.

Despite the two-game winning streak the Bears are on heading into Arch Madness, many around the program have questioned whether Ford will be brought back for a sixth season.

Ford has two years remaining on his contract, which pays him $425,000 annually. Based on the recent history under Missouri State’s administration, it would be uncharacteristic for the university to make such a move.

A move would solely be based on performance and the administration’s belief in Ford’s ability to get the Bears to take the next step — which is desperately needed with the waning interest from its fanbase.

To Ford’s credit, he has been much more successful than his predecessor, Paul Lusk, and he rebuilt the program into one that was in the top half of the league throughout his five years. Under Ford, the Bears have won at least 12 conference games in three consecutive seasons for the first time in the program's 110-year history, with the caveat being there were two extra conference games on the schedule this season.

"I'm proud of our guys," Ford said Monday during his pre-Arch Madness conference call. "I do like the level of consistency that we've shown year after year. We've been blessed with some pretty decent players and they've given us a chance to win most of our games. Hopefully, we will win more than 12 moving forward."

There is hope for 2023-24 based on the current makeup of a young, talented roster but within the current college basketball climate, there is no guarantee those players will return. Ford recruited a near-entire new roster for 2022-23 with the team finishing 16-14 overall and has had them playing well heading into the conference tournament as a six-seed with the hopes of making an unprecedented four-game run out of the Thursday round.

But expectations are higher for what is supposed to be the university’s marquee program under a coach who is in his fifth season. The school has seen NCAA Tournament and playoff berths in football, women’s basketball and baseball in recent years while the men’s basketball program is still seeking its first NCAA Tournament berth since 1999.

Multiple sources have told the News-Leader in recent weeks that several coaches have already expressed interest in the job if it was to become available. Sources close to the program have said that a change is a possibility.

Whether Missouri State opts to retain Ford or go in a different direction, whoever is on the Bears' sideline will be responsible for reigniting a fanbase that set an attendance low — with an average of 3,300 fans walking through the Great Southern Bank Arena per game throughout the season, marking the program's lowest since it played in McDonald Arena in 1975-76.

Missouri State men's basketball needs a spark. Does the university's administration believe that Ford will be capable of igniting it as soon as next season if Ford's unable to deliver one this week?

Missouri State basketball needs hope. Is Dana Ford capable of delivering it?

It's no secret how interest in the Missouri State men's basketball program has dwindled over the years. Attending games isn't nearly as much fun as they once were and the product on the court hasn't been at a level that attracts the majority of fans consistently.

It decreased under Paul Lusk and it decreased under Ford. This isn't a situation where MSU President Clif Smart can say that fans can come back when the Bears start winning — the situation, as far as fan interest, is much more dire than what it was when the administration announced Lusk would return for his seventh season.

Not all of Missouri State's fan-interest problems are due to the product on the court but it's a big part of it. Bringing the program back to glory and competing for championships would be a major step in bringing it back.

More:Wheeler: Missouri State needs a major overhaul in its basketball experience

Ford has had the Bears in contention for regular-season championships over the years but hasn't been able to get over the hump. In his first year, MSU had a chance at winning a share of the league title on the final day but lost to Drake, which was also in its first year of a head coach and it won a share of the league. They weren't in contention for a league title again until the final week of the 2021-22 season when they were in a three-way tie for first. The Bears lost a road game at Northern Iowa by 20 to start the week and ultimately finished in second.

Over the last two Arch Madness appearances, the Bears have lost right before the buzzer to Drake in the semifinals. They lost to Valparaiso in the semifinals in 2020 and the quarterfinals to Bradley in 2019. This season, with an expanded field and new format, will be Ford's first team to compete on a Thursday when the Valley is as weak as it's been in quite some time.

More:Wheeler: 5 things I learned after calling on MSU to overhaul its hoops experience

Ford's best opportunity during his MSU career appeared to be with his 2021-22 roster that featured Isiaih Mosley, one of the best scorers in the school's history, and Gaige Prim, one of the best big men in the school's history. While playing the majority of the season without a pure point guard following Demarcus Sharp's early-season injury, the Bears couldn't get into an Arch Madness title game or win the league.

The Dana Ford era has not been nearly as bad as the Paul Lusk era

For as frustrated as fans are regarding the program's direction under Ford, it has not been nearly as bad as the program was before his arrival.

Ford blows Lusk out of the water when it comes to his record since he's been in charge and how the Bears have been competitive late in the season.

More:The highs and many lows of the Paul Lusk era

Ford has been to the Arch Madness semifinals in each of the last three years. Lusk never made it once in seven years. Ford has led the Bears to a winning record in MVC play in four of five years. Lusk never did once.

This isn't to say that being just above .500 or reaching the semifinals is good enough as Missouri State should set higher standards. It's to say that the complaints of Ford being terrible are overblown and that he's nowhere near a "Lusk 2.0" when it came to the play on the court.

Could Ford decide to go elsewhere on his own?

Even if the Bears decide to keep Ford, it might not matter. There is the possibility that he decides to take a vacant position elsewhere when he's been tied to head coach and high-level assistant spots in the past.

Although the play on the court hasn't been at the championship level many expect, there's no denying Ford's ability as a recruiter. He's attracted high-profile names including the likes of Lamont West, Mosley, Prim and others — not all working out, but they were highly coveted and he brought them to Springfield nonetheless.

The ability to recruit is as important as ever in today's college game and it could still land him a high-level assistant position, as some suggested it almost did at the end of his fourth season.

And if he leads Missouri State on a remarkable run through Arch Madness this week and advances to the NCAA Tournament? Fans will celebrate, to the point where they'll want to keep him, and Ford may have an opportunity to move up as a head coach and this entire conversation will look silly. College basketball can be really weird like that.

Ford's contract isn't the worst thing to get out of if MSU decides to make a move

Unlike the Lusk contract, there is no weird language that could reset Ford's contract if he was to win at Arch Madness. Instead, Ford's contract has favorable language that would make it easier for the Bears to get out — if they chose to do so.

After this season, Ford has two years remaining on a contract that pays him $425,000 annually but the number has risen to $455,903 after university-wide raises. This would have been his final year as head coach on his original deal but two extra years were added following the 2020-21 season in which the Bears went 17-7 and lost in the semifinal round at Arch Madness.

According to Ford's contract, a buyout by Missouri State would take the remaining months and pay on his contract and it would be divided by two. According to his contract language, a buyout would be in the neighborhood of $364,992 this season and $182,496 after next.

Could restlessness from MSU President Clif Smart have an impact on the decision as he nears retirement?

An elephant in the room that could impact Missouri State's decision is the impending retirement of Smart — who is expected to step aside within the next few years.

Smart has always believed in what athletics can do for the university. He loves the exposure the school gets whether it's being competitive in football and making NCAA Tournaments in women's basketball and baseball. He's been very hands-on with the athletics department, almost more than some would like, as he's been right there in decision-making processes alongside Athletics Director Kyle Moats.

It's paid off at times — with a prime example of never deciding to give up on football when there were some who asked for its disbandment during the Dave Steckel era. He and Moats made the bold hire of Bobby Petrino who led the Bears to a pair of FCS Playoff games and made Missouri State respectable on the gridiron, even going forward under Ryan Beard. The Lady Bears have also been ultra-successful with NCAA Tournament appearances under two different head coaches over the last several years. They appear to be in heading in a similar direction soon under a new first-year head coach.

Even with the success in football and women's basketball, there's no way Smart will want to go out in the next few years being the latest president who didn't see the Bears qualify for the NCAA Tournament in men's basketball.

If the Bears don't go on a magical run this week, perhaps that could accelerate the process in Smart's mind and lead to a change. He will want to have his hands in the success of turning what's supposed to be the university's marquee program into one that's constantly challenging for an NCAA Tournament.

He only has a few opportunities left — whatever his decision is will tell you how much he believes in Ford more than anybody's.

How has this administration handled previous coaching situations?

If you were to go off of Missouri State's recent history, a change at head coach right now would seem unlikely.

Remember, this administration initially decided it wanted to move forward with Dave Steckel as football coach following a 1-10 season that made him 13-42 over five years. The football fanbase was even deader than what men's basketball is now when they made that initial decision. MSU allowed him to go through an early-signing period before paying him $340,000 to go away and heroically hired Bobby Petrino shortly after.

The decision to bring Lusk back for a seventh season was a different situation as it coincided with financial hardships within the university following an $8 million state funding shortfall under then-Gov. Eric Greitens for the fiscal year of 2018. The university had to cut $750,000 from its athletics budget which led to the elimination of a sport. It would have been difficult to excuse the concept of buying Lusk out for the remaining $742,906 that was owed. After another year, that number was cut in half and MSU fired him following another disappointing year.

The Ford era has been nowhere near as bad as what Missouri State football was under Steckel or what the men's basketball program he took over was under Lusk.

A move to part ways with Ford would have to take a different train of thought than we've seen in the past. Missouri State can get aggressive, make a change and hope it can create a spark with its fanbase. Or it can stick to its status quo and hope Ford can be the one to do so in a sixth year, if he doesn't do it this week, or else we'll be having the same conversation at the end of next season.

Wyatt D. Wheeler is a reporter and columnist with the Springfield News-Leader. You can contact him at 417-371-6987, by email at wwheeler@news-leader.com or Twitter at @WyattWheeler_NL. He's also the co-host of Sports Talk on Jock Radio weekdays from 4-6 p.m.

This article originally appeared on Springfield News-Leader: Dana Ford: Could Missouri State make a move after Arch Madness?