Could Belarus be preparing for war
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The Kremlin is preparing terrorist attacks on the territory of Belarus to drag [Belarusian dictator Alexander] Lukashenko’s regime into the war by blaming it on the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, as described in a scenario by the U.S.-based Robert Lansing Institute
I read this article by the Robert Lansing Institute and here’s what I think about it said Russia could drag Belarus into the war. Russia’s war against Ukraine is in its third year. The Belarusian army can join it even without any terrorist attacks staged by the FSB [Russia’s Federal Security Service]. If [Russian dictator Vladimir] Putin wishes so, Lukashenko won’t be able to refuse him, and the Belarusian army will join the war. Meanwhile, Belarus is being used by Russia as a bridgehead, with mobilized Russian soldiers training on its territory.
The facts show that Russian military personnel and Russian equipment are deployed on the territory of Belarus. Russian troops entered [Ukraine] from the territory of Belarus, and if Putin needs it, they’ll enter again, while experts suggest this may happen in 2024. Ukrainian cities were shelled from the territory of Belarus. Let me remind you that more than 700 Iskander missiles were launched at Ukraine from the territory of Belarus in the first half of 2022 alone.
Today, Belarusian military personnel are serving the Russian army, Russian soldiers are training at Belarusian training grounds, Russian equipment is being serviced by Belarusian military. Belarusian refineries are filling the shortage of oil products Russia faces due to Ukrainian drone attacks. That is, Belarus is already fully involved in Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Lukashenko is an aggressor just like Putin — this is something we need to recognize. It seems to me that it’s ridiculous and redundant to stage some terrorist attacks on the territory of Belarus to force Belarusian military personnel to voluntarily go to Ukraine. Let’s examine why.
Read also: Belarus distributes propaganda books to schools in Ukraine’s occupied territories
First of all, we must understand that Belarusians are different from Russians, and we’ve already had the experience of terrorist attacks staged by the authorities, as happened in April 2011. I’ll remind you about the Minsk Metro bombing, when it became clear that it was staged by the government. It had only one goal, namely, to silence the population opposing the falsification of the next presidential election, as well as the devaluation of the ruble. Now, no one will believe that Ukraine can stage terrorist attacks in Belarus with civilian casualties.
Reservist training is constantly taking place in Belarus
Of course, Lukashenko won’t go as far as invading [Ukraine] with his own troops. This will be Putin’s decision, and indeed such a scenario cannot be ruled out. This may happen in case of escalation at the front and the need to seize Kyiv, attacking Ukraine from the north. I understand that today the border has already been fortified, and it’s quite difficult to enter Ukraine by land. We know there are mined fields out there. Although, on the other hand, what will prevent the Russians from letting their soldiers advance through these minefields. Let’s recall the WWII experience, such as [Soviet Marshal Georgy] Zhukov’s strategy, his infamous “meat assaults.” That is, it can all happen. Not to mention the fact that Russian tactical nuclear weapons are deployed on the territory of Belarus. And this re-entry of the Russian army into the territory of Ukraine from Belarus may be preceded by such a strike from the territory of Belarus with tactical nuclear missiles.
Belarusian propaganda works in the same vein as the Russian one. Of course, they associate the terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall [outside Moscow] with Ukraine. Today, I’m convinced this terrorist attack was staged by the Russian special services, and Lukashenko’s words that he allegedly took part in the arrest of criminals who were traveling to Belarus after the terrorist attack, confirm that it was a sting operation by the Russian special services to blame Ukraine for this and, accordingly, to harm Ukraine’s reputation in the West. It’s clear the perpetrators of this terrorist attack were most likely promised the opportunity to avoid responsibility, to leave Russia through the territory of Belarus, or perhaps to be thrown into the West among those migrants who continue to storm the borders of Poland and Lithuania from the territory of Belarus. Well, of course, they had to be caught and publicly punished. We’ve all seen those horrible videos with ears being cut off. And, accordingly, the terrorist attack was really aimed at blaming Ukraine.
I understand that today the Belarusian army cannot say “no.” I consider it unlikely that any soldiers’ rebellions of disobedience would happen. Because first, today the Belarusian army is still strongly integrated into the Russian army. It seems to me that Lukashenko himself is no longer in charge of the Belarusian army and security forces. And if there’s such an order, they will advance to Ukraine alongside Russian troops. The only thing I hope for is that, after all, the Belarusians will surrender en masse and won’t fight against the Ukrainians.
Reservist training is constantly taking place in Belarus. Information recently appeared that summonses to conscripts will now be served not only in paper form, but also through text messages. Territorial defense training and formation of so-called “people’s militias” are underway. What is territorial defense and people’s militia in Belarusian conditions? As a rule, it includes former security forces and people loyal to the authorities. That is, the preparations for war, as Lukashenko himself said, are taking place. But it’s clear that no one is going to attack Belarus, neither Ukraine nor NATO countries.
There are several versions of why this is happening. That is, on the one hand, it serves to strengthen Lukashenko’s regime. After all, the search for external enemies is a common trick for any dictator. But, on the other hand, it’s obvious that Lukashenko understands that eventually the territory of Belarus may become a combat zone, and he understands that the Kremlin may intend to attack both Ukraine and Western countries from Belarus.
Today we see military drills taking place on the border with Lithuania. Information has just now appeared about the deployment of the Belarusian Army’s 6th Mechanized Brigade, which has been put on alert, on the border with Poland near Grodno [a city in western Belarus], 20 km away from the border. In addition, the 19th Mechanized Brigade is running drills near Lithuania.
Now we see news about the deployment of a larger contingent of NATO troops on the border with Belarus from Poland and Lithuania. Many NATO generals directly say that Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland may be the first to be attacked. As for the seizure of the Suwałki Gap [a strategically important area on the Polish-Lithuanian border]. We understand that it’s not about the corridor as such. Because capturing one corridor as a passage to Kaliningrad [a Russian enclave on the Baltic Sea] makes no sense because the Russian or possibly Belarusian army will be attacked from two sides by Lithuania and Poland. And, most likely, the occupation of the Baltic states would be in question. This can be done both from the territory of Belarus and Russia (if we’re talking about Estonia), in addition to potential seaborne strikes.
Belarusian refineries are now filling the shortage of oil products Russia faces due to Ukrainian drone attacks. That is, Belarusian refineries, including the Novopolotsk and Mozyr ones, are also currently taking an active part in the war against Ukraine. Today, these oil products are used to refuel Russian military equipment. And, as far as I understand, the Mozyr Oil Refinery is well within the range of Ukrainian drones. It’s not for me to decide, but I’d say we must act preventively. We must understand that Lukashenko is dangerous. We cannot trust him. No arrangements with him will work. It’s necessary to act preventively, starting with the fact that striking Russian military facilities, the same oil refineries that are working today for the Russian military industry, is indeed legal and Ukraine has the right to do so.
Read also: Lukashenko derails Putin’s narrative about ‘Ukrainian trace’ in Moscow terror attack
Secondly, it’s necessary to understand that a serious military unit from Belarusians should be established in Ukraine. A division should already be created based around the Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment, and believe me, Belarusians will go to fight in Ukraine in much larger numbers—if they know they have a chance to liberate their own country.
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Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine
