Coronavirus death projections cut in half in SC. Experts credit social distancing

The projected coronavirus death toll in South Carolina has dropped by more than half from what researchers expected a week ago, and they point to social distancing as the cause.

Using data on available hospital beds, the number of people infected, and safety restrictions issued, researchers with the University of Washington created a model to predict when the novel coronavirus will be at its deadliest in every state in the nation, and how severe its impact.

On March 30, they projected SC would experience 32 deaths a day at COVID-19’s peak and a loss of more than 1,000 lives by early June.

But as of April 6,the researcher’s updated model predicts less than 500 will die due to the virus by early August, with a peak death rate of 14 per day.

Researchers still expect COVID-19 will peak in South Carolina in late April, but with far fewer fatalities than they initially feared, thanks to measures like social distancing.

They also said there should be plenty of hospital and ICU beds open to those who need them. Earlier projections showed South Carolina cutting it close on available ICU beds, but currently, no shortage is anticipated.

University researchers cited recent data from Italy and Spain, which have already hit their COVID-19 peaks, for the changes in their projection. Data from the European countries shows a strong correlation between social distancing, closures, and shrinking death rates.

The latest projections for South Carolina were updated prior to Monday night, and restrictions have since tightened.

According to state health officials, 2,232 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed, and 48 have died as of Monday

“Our current data shows us that social distancing and staying home help combat the spread of disease and ultimately save lives,” state epidemiologist Dr. Linda Bell said during a Monday press conference.

Gov. Henry McMaster has so far taken a less restrictive approach than most states to slowing the spread, resisting calls for a statewide shelter-in-place order, taking incremental measures instead. But on Monday he changed his stance, issuing a mandatory order to stay at home, unless at work or going to an essential business.

“We’ve asked, we’ve urged, we’ve suggested….but the last week or so has shown that it is not enough,” he said.

Meanwhile, state leaders announced plans to increase the number of available hospital beds by 3,000, bringing the total available to 9,000, according to The State.

Projections from the Department of Health and Environmental Control predict 8,000 cases by May 2.