‘Complete and utter annoyance:’ NC Democratic voters react to Cunningham affair
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They sighed and groaned, but didn't waver.
Democratic voters interviewed this week said they were perturbed by the news that Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Cal Cunningham strayed outside his marriage, but they said they still support him. The first statewide poll conducted since the scandal broke seemed to validate their views, perhaps hinting at a lower level of concern modern voters place on extramarital transgressions.
“It’s a complete and utter annoyance,” said Tara Hackett, a small business owner and registered Democrat in Asheville. “But we’ve got bigger fish to fry. We’ve got way too much riding on this race.”
Cunningham, who is married with two children, apologized over the weekend for exchanging sexual text messages with another married woman, public relations strategist Arlene Todd Guzman. The story was initially reported by the conservative website National File.
On Tuesday, The Associated Press reported it had spoken with Guzman Todd, who confirmed she had intimate encounters with Cunningham in March and in July.
Tillis has seized on the revelations, arguing that Cunningham “owes the people of North Carolina a full explanation” for his extramarital activity. But he may be ill positioned to force the issue after disclosing hours before the text messages were made public that he has contracted the coronavirus.
“On the debate stage last week Cal said it’s about integrity — and I agree,” Tillis said on “Fox & Friends.”
Both candidates are now on the sidelines. Tillis is self-isolating at his home, and his Charlotte campaign office is closed for the rest of the week. Cunningham pulled out of a previously planned online forum on Monday with the Libertarian candidate in the race. His campaign gave no reason for his decision.
In a statement Oct. 6 to the USA Today Network, Cunningham communications director Rachel Petri wrote, “Senator Tillis and his allies are trying to exploit a personal matter and ignoring a family’s request for privacy to make desperate attacks in hopes they can distract from Senator Tillis’ record of blocking Medicaid expansion, voting to take protections away from North Carolinians with pre-existing conditions, and failing to pass needed COVID-19 relief for our communities.”
'Who wouldn't be disappointed?'
The Tillis-Cunningham race could determine which political party controls the Senate. And Cunningham’s sexts created questions — and plenty of frustration — among Democratic voters. Yet across the state, registered Democrats said they’re sticking by Cunningham, seeing the transgression as a blip that shouldn’t overshadow their goal of flipping the Senate and expanding Medicaid.
“Who wouldn’t be disappointed?” said Roberta Waddle, a former chair of the Cumberland County Democratic Party. “I am disappointed. However, I would still support him for Senate. In fact, I have already voted and done so.”
Waddle said she believes the Cunningham scandal could be buried in last week’s avalanche of news, including Tillis’ COVID-19 announcement and President Donald Trump’s hospitalization and ongoing coronavirus treatment.
About 69% of North Carolina independent voters were aware of Cunningham's sexting scandal, according to the first poll conducted since the scandal broke.
Half-life of a scandal
In recent months, Cunningham has maintained a single-digit lead over Tillis in polls. Cunningham has also outraised the Republican incumbent. On Thursday, the Cunningham campaign reported it raised $28 million in the third quarter this year, a state record for a North Carolina politician.
The first poll since the sexting scandal shows Cunningham remaining the clear, if somewhat dented, frontrunner.
Public Policy Polling reached out to 911 North Carolina voters Oct. 4-5 and found Cunningham led Tillis 48% to 42%. More respondents held a negative view of Cunningham than a positive view, though his favorability still outpaced Tillis's net favorability rating by 21 points. Of non-Trump voters, only 12% said they're now less likely to support Cunningham.
Political experts say Cunningham’s scandal — if limited to several romantic texts with one woman — isn’t likely to jeopardize his campaign. But further allegations of infidelity could intensify the political damage.
“This will have a short half-life,” said Susan Roberts, a political science professor at Davidson College, before news of the second affair surfaced. “If it gets worse, if it becomes more than just cuddling and wishing to kiss, I think then it’s more of a problem.”
Cunningham could face another negative news cycle due to his military status.
Cunningham is a lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserve and the military can prosecute personnel for adultery, said Paul Dubbeling, a Chapel Hill-based lawyer and former military prosecutor. To be subject to prosecution, the adultery must include sexual intercourse and have occurred while on active duty.
On "Fox & Friends" on Tuesday, Tillis mentioned Cunningham could also be "subject to disciplinary action” from the military.
Dubbeling, however, said personnel involved in extramarital affairs rarely face court-martial.
“This tends to be career-ending but not prosecuted,” he said.
This week, the Republican-aligned Super PAC, Results for NC, ran an ad featuring Cunningham’s texts that tied the Democratic nominee to former North Carolina U.S. Sen. John Edwards, whose political career ended after a sex scandal in the 2000s.
Yet, the importance voters tie to political sex scandals, Roberts said, has diminished over time.
“Voter don’t expect their members of Congress to be: Church on Sunday, married to this woman from high school, been with her for 40 years,” she said. “I don’t think this is as damning as it could have been in the past.”
Several Democrats pointed out Cunningham’s messages, while ill-advised, didn’t reach the amorality of notorious past political affairs.
“This is two adults consenting,” Hackett said. “So, I don’t see it as 'Me Too.' I don’t see it as John Edwards having a secret love-baby while his wife is dying. It’s just not to that level for me. It’s annoyance but not disgust.”
Senate in the balance
Yet even minimal fallout from the Cunningham sexts could prove vital in a swing state like North Carolina, especially when Cunningham often highlights his probity in interviews and ads.
“The small, but potentially decisive number of undecided voters in this race could be moved, however,” said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University. “Part of Cunningham’s appeal has been his character and his persona. Clearly, this story pierces that persona and may cause some voters to call into question whether there are other parts of his story that are similarly full of hot air.”
In addition to polls, Cooper says future campaign contribution reports will help gauge whether Cunningham’s texts dampened enthusiasm within his base.
If Joe Biden carries his lead in the polls through November and becomes president, Democrats would need to flip three Senate seats to control the upper chamber of the legislature. The website FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats a 66% chance of doing so, around the same odds the website gives to Cunningham winning in North Carolina. If Cunningham experiences any downward movement in polls before Election Day on Nov. 3, the probability the Democrats capture the Senate could dip, too.
Despite the developments, some state Democrats sought to keep supporting Cunningham for the seat, saying he’s still right on the issues important to the party faithful and the country.
“Cunningham had a critical lapse in judgement and morality. My prayers go out to his family as they work through healing,” tweeted North Carolina state Sen. Erica Smith, who lost to Cunningham in the March Democratic primary. “I ask our supporters to unite around our platform and stand with Cal for NC.”
Michael Harf, a small business owner in Raleigh, said he sees politically minded people in both North Carolina and New York — where he spends part of the year — tracking the Tar Heel Senate race.
Like other Democrat voters throughout North Carolina, Harf sees Cunningham’s flirtatious messages as a nuisance that won’t impact his vote. He predicted any political damage Cunningham’s texts cause could be balanced by the impact of Tillis’ coronavirus diagnosis.
“It would have been nice if (Cunningham) could’ve remained untarnished, but I don’t know that it changes the dynamic,” he said. “I won’t be shocked if there’s frankly no movement in the polls because of the two incidents that occurred. People are going to say, ‘Huh, he got COVID’ and ‘Huh, he had an affair.'”
Harf pointed out another reason why this weekend's news isn't likely to dictate the election's outcome: Mail-in voting is already underway.
As of Sunday evening, close to 360,000 North Carolinians had already mailed in their absentee ballots, 5% of all registered voters.
Contributing: Paul Woolverton, AP
Brian Gordon is the education and social issues reporter for the USA Today Network. Reach him at bgordon@gannett.com or on Twitter @briansamuel92.
This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Cal Cunningham, NC senate candidate, draws sexting scandal reactions
