The cold political calculation behind Donald Trump's WHO funding suspension
Donald Trump has a political problem. The election platform he has so carefully constructed over the last three years, the one meant to sweep him into a second term come November, has crumbled in the face of the Covid-19 crisis.
Once, not that long ago, the US president was boasting about the best jobs figures in US history, a stock market hitting record highs and a rapidly growing economy. It was the ace in his re-election hand.
Now 15 million Americans have recently claimed unemployment, the market gains since 2017 have been all but wiped out and the US economy is projected to contract by six per cent this year.
For month after month, Mr Trump has been touting his accomplishments - two conservative Supreme Court judges, a vast tax cut, a start to new border wall construction, a rolling back of regulations - under the tagline “promises made, promises kept”.
Now those achievements pale in comparison with the enormity of the crisis caused by Covid-19, which Mr Trump has called the “invisible enemy” and “monster” that has turned him into a “wartime president”.
And then there are the grim statistics. Around 600,000 positive cases in the US and rising. At least 25,000 deaths. More than 9/11. More than the Afghanistan, Iraq and Gulf wars combined.
No US voter is naive enough to think the problem is of Mr Trump’s making. More than 180 countries have proven cases. Every world leader is locked in a battle unlike any in modern times - against the twin crises of pandemic and financial deep freeze.
But what is in the spotlight is Mr Trump’s handling of the crisis. Did he act quickly enough on what was emerging from Wuhan? Why were there shortages of tests and protective equipment? Why did he initially play down concerns?
The issue will define the election, barring some huge, unforeseen event. And the election is now no longer in the distant future. It's less than seven months until voters make their judgement on Mr Trump - around 200 days.
Which brings us to suspending World Health Organisation (WHO) funding. A through line can be found in Mr Trump’s rebuttals of Covid-19 criticism to date - the refusal to accept any blame himself for problems in tackling the virus.
For insufficient testing, Mr Trump has blamed the Obama administration, saying the procedures left in place by his predecessor were insufficient, despite having more than three years in office to fix them.
For complaints over the lack of ventilators, the president has pointed to state governors, saying it is their responsibility to buy them (though adding the US government will step in if necessary, as it has done).
Challenged over his initial dismissal of the seriousness of Covid-19 - he repeatedly compared it to the flu throughout February, once accusing the media and his opponents of whipping up fears into a “hoax” - Mr Trump now says he always knew how bad it would get.
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Scrutiny has been ramping up. Recent pieces from The New York Times and The Washington Post revealing the extent of internal warnings about what was coming prompted Mr Trump to launch an attack on the media on Monday.
Yet a hastily arranged clips package played during the White House briefing, declaring it was the media and not the president who downplayed the virus, will not draw a line under the matter.
The House of Representatives, in the hands of the Democrats, has created a coronavirus committee to scrutinise the government’s handling of the pandemic.
Joe Biden, locked in a bruising battle with Democrats just two months ago, is now the last man standing, endorsed by Bernie Sanders and Barack Obama as the party’s presidential nominee and free to focus entirely on Mr Trump.
Mr Obama’s 12-minute endorsement video on Tuesday offered an insight into the post-coronavirus pitch that will be made - Mr Biden helped lead America through the H1N1 and Ebola outbreaks, has already overseen one recovery after the 2008-09 crash and will trust the experts.
Plus the bump in approval ratings Mr Trump saw from the ‘rally round the flag’ phenomenon, one enjoyed by country leaders across the world as Covid-19 raged, has disappeared. His numbers have begun to sink.
Which makes it all the more imperative for Mr Trump to find a target to blame. It is something he has done throughout his presidency. At times, with emerging scandals, you can almost feel the president trying out different lines in press conferences and rallies.
Mr Trump first went after China explicitly. He dubbed coronavirus “the Chinese virus” and said the country should have alerted the world sooner. That line of criticism will likely be amplified as the election approaches - US media reports citing campaign sources have suggested as much.
But the president has toned down the attacks for now. After a phone call with Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, Mr Trump has dropped the nickname and spoken of China’s suffering.
Perhaps the knock-on implications for trade talks - something the president has said he wants to make progress on as soon as possible - were on his mind.
With the WHO there is no such concern. In fact casting it as the villain of the outbreak fits neatly into Mr Trump’s "America first" world view.
It is another international body - like Nato - which the US has been piling money into above other countries. Mr Trump said America gives it around $400 million each year, compared to roughly $40 million from China.
Like the World Trade Organisation or the European Union, it is another multilateral body which Mr Trump appears to believe has rules rigged to the detriment of the US. His favourite term for the WHO currently is “China-centric”.
And, most politically helpful of all, it is outside his control. If the blame for the severity of the US coronavirus outbreak lies with the WHO - and Mr Trump put thousands of deaths at their door in his Tuesday press conference - then it does not lie with the president.
None of the above, it should be underscored, is an attempt to absolve the WHO. Whatever the merits of suspending aid while a pandemic rages, it remains to be proven whether the WHO did indeed react too slowly or held back on criticism of China.
Simply put, the domestic political rationale for Mr Trump pointing the finger at the body is just so clear. To understand the suspension of money, it is essential to appreciate that context.
Mr Trump, thus far, has rated his handling of the crisis at 10 out of 10. On November 3 we will see if US voters agree. The more they blame the WHO for the outbreak in the US, the better chance the president has of being re-elected.
