Can ‘Coco’ Whip ‘Justice League’ For Top Spot Over Thanksgiving Stretch? – Box Office Preview
In a short period of time, four films originally slotted to play the five-day Thanksgiving Week period fled — Dimension’s Polaroid, MGM’s Death Wish, STXfilms’ Molly’s Game and Entertainment Studios’ Chappquiddick — leaving Disney/Pixar’s Coco largely alone as the one uber wide release in 3,987 theaters. The Lee Unkrich-Adrian Molina animated musical, which follows young boy Miguel’s journey to the other side where he meets his dead relatives and discovers great secrets about his family, is eyeing $55 million-$60 million over five days with a good shot at $65M or more. Over three days, Coco looks to mint in the low $40Ms.
Coco arrives with a 94% Rotten Tomatoes score, and close to $50M from Mexico, where the pic in local currency (932M) is the highest-grossing film of all time.
While we say that Pixar films are “five-quad” pics in their appeal from toddlers to grandparents, it’s even more so in the case of Coco, which should find mass appeal among generations. In addition, Hispanic audiences could push overindexing, primed by 268 Spanish-language locations. Like Unkrich’s previous directorial effort Toy Story 3, be sure to bring a box of Kleenex as Coco will have you crying between its outstanding score by Michael Giacchino with the pic’s signature song “Remember Me,” by Frozen‘s Oscar-winning duo Kristen Anderson and Robert Lopez. Of Coco‘s theater count, 70% are in 3D, 76 D-Box along with 198 PLFs (Justice League hogs all the Imax sites). Previews begin tomorrow night at 7 PM.
Last Thanksgiving, Disney’s Moana made $82M and carried the box for three weekends before Rogue One: A Star Wars Story came into play. Frozen owns the best Thanksgiving five-day opening of all-time at $93.6M.
Could Coco beat Justice League for No. 1? Quite possibly, as industry estimates are figuring a similar range for the the Warner Bros/DC movie with $40M-$42M over FSS, a 56% decline, and $60M-$65M over five. The Zack Snyder-directed, Chris Terrio- and Joss Whedon-scripted movie came in way below its $110M-$120M tracking estimate with $93.8M in its first domestic frame. It’s tracking for $6M-$7M on Monday and should hit $100M by the end of the day. Disney/Marvel’s platinum threqueel Thor: Ragnarok will continue to be the bane of Justice League’s existence as the Son of Asgard lifts more cash — specifically $13M over three and an estimated $20M over five — from the Hall of Justice’s coffers.
Lionsgate’s Wonder will continue to wow. Many rivals are impressed by Monday’s receipts which is eyeing $4M, propped by advance ticket sales and 35% K-12 schools out. Industry estimates figure a second weekend in the teens, and another $27M over five days. However, the Julia Roberts-Owen Wilson movie with a weekend cume of $27.5M beat the high end of last weekend’s tracking by 96%, so don’t be surprised if the movie continues to overperform.
With the lack of new sophisticated adult pics, Sony’s Roman J. Israel, Esq. will break its Denzel Washington legal drama wider from four New York-Los Angeles locations to 1,600 on Wednesday. Pic finaled its exclusive weekend run at $62,000, or $15,5K per theater. A24 is also going wide with its mighty Lady Bird, which ranked No. 8 with $2.5M at 238 locations; a fantastic result and $10.6K per theater in Weekend 3. “All the adults are going to see it,” said one rival distribution vet this weekend about the Greta Gerwig-directed title.
Bleecker Street has the period piece The Man Who Invented Christmas in 500 houses. Pic directed by Bharat Nalluri follows how Charles Dickens created his bestseller A Christmas Carol; it holds an 89% Rotten Tomatoes score. Focus Features will open its Gary Oldman-as-Winston Churchill biopic Darkest Hour, which has accumulated an arsenal buzz for the actor’s mesmerizing turn as the embattled British prime minister as he aims to keep the UK strong against Germany during World War II. The Joe Wright-directed movie holds an 86% fresh RT score and will debut Wednesday in four New York-Los Angeles locations.
Also, Sony Pictures Classics’ Call Me By Your Name directed by Luca Guadagnino will open in four New York and Los Angeles venues Friday.
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