Closing in on SC primary, how close is Haley to Trump in her home state? New poll shows gap

Former President Donald Trump has a 29-point lead among South Carolina Republican voters over the state’s former governor, with less than two months until the state’s GOP presidential primary, according to a new Emerson College Poll.

Trump received 54% of support from the 584 people polled on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who has been solidly in second place for several months in her home state, was supported by 25% of people in the poll, who were surveyed via phone call, text messages and online.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis received 7% of support in the poll, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie was at 5%, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy was at 3%.

Emerson’s latest poll is similar to a poll of South Carolina voters released by the Trafalgar Group about a month ago that had Trump at 49% and Haley at 23%. However, DeSantis polled at 14% in that survey.

Haley is looking to make it a two-person race for the Republican presidential nomination after the nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire this month. Haley has seen the gap between her and Trump shrink in recent weeks in New Hampshire, which holds its GOP primary one month before South Carolina.

“The current state of the race in South Carolina finds Trump as the frontrunner with Haley as his main opponent. DeSantis has seen a decline in support, and similar to our New Hampshire poll has faded into the pack with single-digit support” Spencer Kimball, the executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. “A key question arising from this poll is whether Haley can mobilize ample support in her home state before the primary, in the case the race becomes more competitive after New Hampshire.”

South Carolina’s primary is open to voters of any party, as voters don’t register with parties in the state, which could provide an opening for Haley.

The poll found Haley leads among independent voters 37% to Trump’s 33%, but she trails among those who consider themselves Republicans, 21% compared to Trump’s 62%.

Trump leads Haley 57% to 24% among respondents who said they are “very likely” to vote in the primary. Among those who are “somewhat likely” to vote in the primary, Trump only has a 34% to 31% lead.

Haley also needs to the field to narrow for her to win her home state. She is the second choice of 20% of respondents in the poll. DeSantis is the second choice of 26% of respondents.

“Haley currently earns the support of a plurality of Christie voters, 44%, as their second choice for the nomination, but others split their vote between the top candidates,” said Matt Taglia, the senior director at Emerson College Polling. “With limited undecided voters, a path for Haley in South Carolina could depend on converting some of these first and second choices.”

Democratic primary race

Emerson College also polled 320 Democratic primary voters ahead of the Feb. 3 First in the Nation Democratic presidential primary in South Carolina.

President Joe Biden leads with 69% of support in the Palmetto State, which propelled him to the Democratic nomination in 2020.

Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips is at 5%. Self-help author Marianne Williamson is at 3%.

The poll found 22% of Democratic voters are undecided.

“Biden holds a strong base of support among South Carolina Democrats, no alternative presents any challenge for the president,” Kimball said. “The 22% still on the sidelines present an opportunity for Biden to begin his 2024 primary elections with a strong showing to open for the Democratic nomination.”