City election update: Cofer surges to second but it remains anyone’s race for Sacramento mayor

The latest round of ballot counts Friday for the city of Sacramento’s most consequential races provided a motley mix of updates.

The hotly contested mayoral race experienced a major change-up of ranking among candidates, while margins in other races stayed consistent.

County election officials will update the results Tuesday. There are about 31% of ballots left to be counted, according to The Sacramento Bee’s analysis, which could alter hopeful elected officials prospects.

Here’s an updated look at how Sacramento residents voiced changes to the city’s political landscape.

New results in race for Sacramento mayor

The Sacramento mayoral race — called the closely-watched primary election toss-up in California by one political expert — featured a major shakeup as a fourth-place candidate on Election Day is now separated by a few hundred votes from the leading contender.

Only 349 votes divide epidemiologist Flojaune “Flo” Cofer from the No. 1 vote-getter, former state Sen. Dr. Richard Pan. She leapfrogged ahead of two other opponents since Tuesday night’s updates.

Cofer notched 23.26% of votes while Pan garnered 23.93% of ballots. Former City Councilman Steve Hansen tallied 22.89% of votes, while longtime Sacramento Assemblyman Kevin McCarty is in fourth place with 22.58% of ballots.

The margin between Pan and the three other leading contenders was just 705 votes, tighter than it was on Election Night.

With such a tight race, the next mayor will likely be decided during a runoff in November.

The bottom candidates, Jose Antonio Avina II and Julius Engel, received 6% and about 1% of votes, respectively.

There are 52,213 total votes that have been counted and roughly 44,000 city ballots are estimated to be outstanding, according to Bee research.

4th City Council District

Phil Pluckebaum, a former city planning commissioner, remained in the lead against incumbent Katie Valenzuela — though the race margins tightened after Friday’s update in the city’s most contentious council race.

Valenzuela, the first-term liberal councilwoman, grew her vote total to 40%, according to the latest figures, an increase from the 38% reported after polls closed.

Pluckebaum’s lead dropped slightly to 56%, though he remains poised to win the race outright.

A capital political expert earlier in the week said Valenzuela did not secure enough votes early to have a shot at forcing a November runoff against her challenger.

“It just becomes harder and harder to catch up when you have that kind of deficit,” said Paul Mitchell, vice president of bipartisan voting data firm Political Data Inc. “I don’t think there’s a possibility she would be able to catch up.”

“I’m in no hurry to declare victory,” Pluckebaum, a former Planning and Design Commissioner, said Wednesday. “Let’s let the process play out. But I’m grateful and humbled by the support.”

2nd City Council District

Roger Dickinson, a former Assemblyman, continued to staunchly hold his lead over eight competitors for the seat representing neighborhoods in North Sacramento, such as Del Paso Heights and Woodlake, though he did not have enough to avoid a November runoff as of Friday.

Dickinson held 46% of votes with the latest tally with the No. 2 contender, Realtor Stephen Walton, garnering 14% of ballots.

Former Grant Union High School vice principal Kim Davie collected 11% of votes, a drop from the 12.4% ballots she received on Election Day.

The other six 2nd District hopefuls — once occupied by former Councilman Sean Loloee, who is now facing federal criminal charges into alleged labor violations at his grocery business — didn’t receive more than 10% of ballots.

Measure C

Sacramento voters continued to reject Measure C, the city-backed business tax in the latest dump of votes.

Measure C restructures businesses’ tax burdens for the first time since 1991 to address a $66 million budget deficit. The city of Sacramento has said a majority of retailers would get a tax decrease and only major corporations would face higher rates if the measure passed. Professionals — such as lawyers, accountants and surgeons — would have also seen an increase to their taxes.

Approximately 62% of city voters were opposed to the simple-majority initiative, while about 38% of residents wanted to implement the city-backed change.

What’s left to count?

Based on estimates by The Bee, about 44,000 more city ballots are expected to be counted in the days and weeks ahead. That figure is based on the likely percentage of city ballots within the reported number of total ballots left to be counted across the county.

Sacramento County elections officials said more than 182,000 ballots have been counted and that a little more than 142,000 have yet to be processed.

There are close to 870,000 registered voters, putting county turnout at about 37%. That’s down from about 43% in the 2020 primary election.