China using ‘boiling frog’ strategy to mask rising aggression in Pacific, says US commander

Chinese sailors line up near the navy's missile destroyer, Guiyang, docked at a port in Qingdao in April
Chinese sailors line up near the navy's missile destroyer, Guiyang, docked at a port in Qingdao in April - Kevin Frayer/Getty
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China is pursuing a “boiling frog” strategy to imperceptibly raise its level of aggression in Asia, the outgoing regional US commander has warned.

Admiral John Aquilino of the Indo-Pacific Command told the Financial Times that Beijing was slowly and dangerously increasing pressure in the South China Sea.

The “boiling frog” strategy is based on the premise of how a frog reacts to being cooked – if it’s put in boiling water to begin with, it will immediately jump out.

However, if the frog is first put in cold water and the temperature then raised it will be unaware of the danger it’s in until it’s too late.

China had increased its belligerence over the past three years he had been in post, Admiral Aquilino added.

Admiral John Aquilino has witnessed a change in China's approach to military power since he  first took up post
Admiral John Aquilino has witnessed a change in China's approach to military power since he first took up post - Tom Williams/Getty

“It’s getting more aggressive, they’re getting more bold and it’s getting more dangerous.”

A former “top gun” pilot, Admiral Aquilino recalled several tense episodes during his time in the post.

In particular he cited the furore when Nancy Pelosi, then speaker of the House of Representatives, landed in Taiwan.

While the visit from the senior Democrat was hailed by all parties in Washington, it infuriated Beijing and there were even calls on Chinese social media to shoot down her plane.

A film is screened at a museum which shows Xi Jinping walking on a navy shandong aircraft carrier surrounded by members of the People's Liberation Army who are saluting the president
People watch footage of Xi Jinping inspecting a Chinese aircraft carrier at the People's Liberation Army naval museum - WANG ZHAO/AFP

China regarded the visit as evidence of the Biden administration adopting a more aggressive approach to Beijing.

“The misinterpretation by the Chinese gave me a concern that they might actually take actions that could be detrimental,” the admiral added.

Other evidence of increased Chinese aggression includes the coastguard being more active around the Taiwanese islands of Kinmen and Matsu.

“This is the pressure campaign in action. I’ve watched it increase in scope and scale, it is not slowing down,” he added. “It is only getting more aggressive.”

Two submarines mark the 75th founding anniversary of the People's Liberation Army in  Qingdao in April
Two submarines mark the 75th founding anniversary of the People's Liberation Army in Qingdao in April - WANG ZHAO/AFP

In February 2023 Chinese spy balloons were spotted flying in the US.

However, none have flown over the US mainland, Guam or Hawaii since.

The admiral also voiced concern over deepening ties between China, Russia and North Korea.

His remarks were published days after the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said following a three-day visit to Beijing, that relations between the two countries had improved in recent months – despite warning that he had seen evidence of China trying to influence the result of the presidential election.

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