China dictates peace plan terms - expert view

Valeriy Klochok, head of Ukraine's Vezha Public Analytics Center, discussed China's stance on Russia's war against Ukraine, the Chinese support for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, and the implications of Putin's visit to Beijing, in an interview with NV Radio on May 17.

"I was struck by Putin's assertive tone regarding negotiations. Previously, we heard hints, but now he articulates it with great certainty. It appears he firmly believes that Chinese President Xi Jinping backs his proposed peace agreement. Do you believe there's genuine agreement or support from Xi, or could this be Putin's bluff?"

"But Xi never said he supports Putin's plan. Never. It's Putin who supports Xi's plan."

"I'm talking about Putin speaking so confidently about it. He talks about it as if Xi has agreed to everything. We understand Putin's penchant for projecting strength, so could this be a bluff?"

"No. Where did you hear that Xi agreed to everything? Russia has never imposed conditions on China. Never, by definition. Such a phrase has never even been uttered."

"When did Russia first mention China's peace plan? Three weeks ago. [Russian Foreign Minister Sergey] Lavrov voiced it before the Kremlin delegation's trip to China, stating that Russia fully supports China's plan. Let's look at China's plan and compare it to Russia's actions: they're worlds apart.."

"I have numerous objections to the so-called Chinese plan. But it's clearly not Russia's strategy. Putin isn't advocating for his own plan; he's endorsing China's."

Read also: Lavrov refers to Putin as Xi’s ‘donkey’ in China visit, exposing Russia’s dependency – Video

"Again, to clarify, we introduced the notion that Putin seeks negotiations along the front line. Before his Beijing visit, the Disinformation Countering Center cited this based on an interview published on the Kremlin's website with [the Chinese news agency] Xinhua. We look at this interview: Putin didn't mention it. I'm not defending him; I'm emphasizing that he agreed to China's peace plan, not Xi to Moscow's terms. There's a big difference."

"We must understand: Putin fears China, fears severing economic ties. Xi has never displayed such overt disregard for Putin [during their May 16 meeting in Beijing]. Observe how Putin approached Xi upon arriving at the palace."

"Firstly, he wasn't late, Mr. Klochok. It's almost unprecedented."

"Indeed. But note: watch the video—Xi didn't even move toward Putin. He stood like a statue, and didn't take a step; Putin ran to him. It was evident and quite telling. The situation is now highly intriguing."

"When the joint statement was published on the Kremlin's website yesterday, there's a section — perhaps the ninth or tenth — with four paragraphs addressing the Ukrainian crisis. Russia deliberately uses the term 'Ukrainian crisis.' Russia has never used this definition before;  they adopted it from China."

Read also: Xi Jinping reiterates ‘crisis’ in Ukraine, emphasizes diplomatic resolution

"China said: it's this way or nothing. It's abundantly clear to me. Despite mentions of Turkey's mediation and others, Putin explicitly stated today that he sees China as the sole mediator in ending the war. China will shape Russia's negotiating stance for the world. That's it. Putin's aspiration for a bipolar world is gone."

"Notice: in their rhetoric, they repeatedly mention multipolarity — both Putin and Xi. So I interpret this visit accordingly."

"Regarding this visit, even Russian media emphasized that Putin wasn't late for Xi Jinping but arrived early. Recall how he was even late for the Pope. As for the negotiations, they're currently at the discussion stage. When will we know if China will definitively support Putin on the war issue? How will we know?"

"China doesn't support Putin in the war. It supports its interests through Russia's war against Ukraine. We must grasp this too. My colleagues and I have often discussed the Chinese angle, concluding there's no alliance between Russia and China. It's a strategic partnership. China consistently emphasizes partnership."

Read also: The U.S. condemns China for supporting Russian aggression in Ukraine - White House

"During this visit, there were repeated statements from both Xi Jinping and Putin about a partnership, but it's not an alliance. So China won't advocate for Putin's interests; it pursues its own."

"What are China's interests? They involve maintaining current economic cooperation levels, at least ceasing the war's active phase (this is my opinion, my conclusion), expanding trade relations with Europe, weakening America, and deepening Russia's dependence [on China], enhancing this dependence. This is glaringly evident today. China's so-called peace plan encompasses these goals."

"Indeed, we would simply like to hear one thing: for Xi to unequivocally state that he'll compel Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukrainian territory. He won't do so now or soon. Why? It's a bargaining chip, pressure on the West. This is the game they play now."

"But whether such a scenario will materialize is a matter of time. I wouldn't rule out witnessing significant developments before the Swiss summit, scheduled for next month."

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