Charles Milliken: Trump vs. Biden: The winner is ...

As the presidential horse race rounds the quarter turn and heads for the backstretch all interested eyes are glued onto the track, and you can almost imagine a breathless announcer: “They’re going around the turn, and Trump is ahead by a neck, but Biden”s jockey(s) are applying all the pressure they can to overcome the stumbles their horse is prone to.” Every four years we get the same scenario, and, let’s be honest, these races are great fun to watch, and even bet on.

To win a bet, you have to pick a winner, naturally. And to do that, with both horses and men, you have to study their records, how they have performed before, and the condition of the track. However, there is another aspect to this I believe to be overlooked: how have similar races played out in the past?

There have been two presidential races in American history pitting an incumbent against a prior president seeking re-election. The first was in 1892. Benjamin Harrison was the incumbent, and Grover Cleveland was attempting re-election. The second was in 1912, with William Howard Taft as President, and Theodore Roosevelt seeking to return to the White House. (The “Executive Mansion” was changed to “White House" during TR’s administration.) I submit to you an examination of each of those races might shed a bit of light on the current contest.

Cleveland, whose first term spanned 1885 to 1889, was a plain-spoken advocate for his positions, and this habit landed him in hot water as often as not. Telling the truth in politics is a dangerous habit. The press often hated him, and did not hesitate to put the worst possible spin on what he said and, if that wasn’t good enough, they’d print out and out lies. There was no pretense then of journalistic standards upholding fairness and accurate reporting. Papers were partisan, and made no bones about it, unlike today when they attempt a pretense of even-handedness.

Cleveland, entering office a bachelor, had just married a much younger woman — 21 to his nearly 50. Oh, my! Some papers soon spread stories that he was a wife-beater, and had been a brute with women. Cleveland would sometimes interrupt prepared remarks to excoriate reporters in the room. Does any of this sound familiar?

Cleveland’s forthrightness on certain issues of the day cost him the election of ‘88, to be succeeded by the Republican Harrison. Harrison, and the Republican Congress, soon made a mess of things, leading to Cleveland’s being the only president — so far — to serve two non-consecutive terms. I know, I know, much has changed between 1892 and 2024, but you have to admit there are many similarities: A popular former president against an incumbent widely perceived to have failed seems suggestive to me.

In 1912, Roosevelt was most unhappy with his successor Taft’s lack of supposed enthusiasm for progressivism. Roosevelt couldn't get the Republican nomination over Taft, so chose to run independently under the label of the Bull Moose Party. The upshot of that election was a split of the Republican vote between Roosevelt and Taft, leading to the election of the Democrat Woodrow Wilson with only about 41% of the popular vote. Poor Taft came in last. A bull moose in a china shop breaks a lot of crockery, and it is interesting to speculate how American history might have changed if Taft would have won his second term, as he most certainly would have.

What do these prior examples tell us about the current race? One, doing a poor job as President leaves one quite vulnerable. Arguably Taft didn’t do a poor job - he just had the misfortune of disappointing his eminent and charismatic predecessor. Taft didn't excite crowds, and neither does the current incumbent. Trump, like TR, can. Robert F. Kennedy is running his own version of a Bull Moose insurrection and, like Roosevelt, it is aimed at his own party's standard bearer.

It’s been said that the more things change, the more they remain the same. If 1892 and 1912 suggest anything, they suggest that Donald J. Trump will be the 47th President of the United States. Bet on it.

— Charles Milliken is a professor emeritus after 22 years of teaching economics and related subjects at Siena Heights University. He can be reached at milliken.charles@gmail.com.

This article originally appeared on The Holland Sentinel: Charles Milliken: Trump vs. Biden: The winner is ...