CFP rankings got Tennessee and LSU right, Alabama wrong, and it doesn't matter | Toppmeyer
Win and you’re in.
That should be the message for any college football coach whose team is ranked in the top seven of the initial College Football Playoff rankings, released Tuesday. If any of those teams win out, they will be in the playoff.
No ifs, ands or buts.
Teams outside the top seven may require assistance, and teams ranked in the top seven that lose a game from here forward will need varying degrees of help.
The committee made a sound choice by seeding Tennessee No. 1, despite the Vols being ranked No. 2 by the AP and No. 3 in the USA TODAY AFCA Coaches poll.
The Vols (8-0) possess the best résumé, and as CFP Committee Chair Boo Corrigan noted, their wins against Alabama and at LSU are the nation's best 1-2 combo of victories.
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The committee whiffed by ranking No. 6 Alabama ahead of undefeated No. 7 TCU. Corrigan’s reasoning for why that ranking occurred was laughable, but it won’t matter in the end.
For Alabama (7-1), it’s clear-cut: Win out, and the Tide is in. Lose again, and it isn’t.
The committee’s top eight:
1. Tennessee
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Clemson
5. Michigan
6. Alabama
7. TCU
8. Oregon
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Five observations of the rankings:
Vols get rewarded and could crack the playoff as a one-loss team
History says this No. 1 ranking bodes well for Tennessee.
Not since the inaugural year of the CFP, in 2014, has a team debuted at No. 1 in the committee’s rankings and missed the playoff. That was Mississippi State, which finished 10-3.
More important than history, though, is the wiggle room this ranking provides.
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This ranking indicates the committee thinks enough of Tennessee and its résumé that the Vols can make the playoff even if they lose Saturday in a competitive game at Georgia, as long as:
a) There aren’t four undefeated teams at the end of the season, and ...
b) Georgia wins the SEC Championship.
Further, if Tennessee beats Georgia but falls in the SEC Championship, the Vols could make the playoff as a one-loss SEC runner-up, a la Georgia last season.
Saturday is a HUGE game for Georgia
Georgia needs a win Saturday more than Tennessee. That’s what these rankings indicate.
Corrigan said the committee seriously considered three teams for the No. 1 spot: UT, OSU and Georgia.
The committee likes balanced teams, he said – Georgia fits the bill – and it recognized the Bulldogs’ win over Oregon. However, the Bulldogs’ résumé otherwise is lacking. UT played crossover games against Alabama and LSU. Georgia beat Auburn and will play Mississippi State later this month. The strength of schedule advantage goes to Tennessee.
Georgia could qualify even with a loss to the Vols, but it would require more chaos to back-door its way in than Tennessee would need if it loses Saturday.
If the Bulldogs lose Saturday, they may tumble as far as No. 7 in the polls. That would leave a steep climb as a one-loss team, with no signature win opportunities remaining after Tennessee.
LSU got the respect it deserves
The committee nailed LSU's ranking at No. 10, despite the Tigers being 17th in the AFCA Coaches poll.
LSU handed Ole Miss, ranked No. 11, its lone loss with a 45-20 victory two weeks ago. And the Tigers won at Mississippi State.
“They seem to be getting better and better, once coach (Brian) Kelly and the quarterback (Jayden Daniels) have kind of meshed," Corrigan said.
Plus, one of LSU’s losses came to No. 1 Tennessee.
The AP and Coaches polls have Ole Miss ranked significantly ahead of LSU, a puzzling outcome that is based purely on record.
Could LSU make the playoff as a two-loss team? I think so.
Consider, if the Tigers beat Alabama on Saturday, they’ll leapfrog the Tide, and likely No. 9 USC and No. 8 Oregon, sliding into a slot no worse than No. 6. Then, they’d have a shot at another signature win against either Tennessee or Georgia in Atlanta.
The path is difficult, but the team that became a two-loss champion in the BCS era has an avenue to become the first two-loss CFP qualifier.
Alabama’s ranking is off-kilter. It doesn’t matter
The best victory for one-loss Alabama, according to the committee, came at Texas, which the committee ranked No. 24.
Meanwhile, undefeated TCU boasts wins against Kansas State and Oklahoma State, ranked Nos. 13 and 18, respectively.
So, what’s the justification for having Alabama ahead of the Frogs?
Alabama is more balanced with its offense and defense, Corrigian said, while noting TCU’s defensive inconsistencies.
“Alabama has got the dominant wins over Mississippi State, at Arkansas, the close win at Texas,” Corrigan said, citing results against two teams the committee didn't rank. “… TCU, with the wins against Oklahoma State at home and Kansas State at home, really good wins, really good team. But we felt like the defense struggled to keep points off the board at times.”
Plus, Corrigan noted, the Frogs have some come-from-behind victories.
Seriously, that's the issue? The committee is basing rankings based on scores at the end of the first or second quarters?
Further, Alabama trailed Texas with seconds remaining, before winning on Will Reichard’s field goal. Are we to ignore that?
The explanation was eyeroll-worthy, but Alabama’s ranking is irrelevant: If the Tide wins the SEC, it will qualify for the playoff. If it loses again, it won’t.
The Frogs must win out, or they’re in serious danger of missing the playoff.
Just win
Aside from Alabama outranking TCU, I mostly applaud the committee's initial effort, but these rankings are little more than a talking point. The rankings will carry more gravitas come Thanksgiving.
To wit: Ole Miss is ranked No. 11, but don’t panic, Rebels. No. 8 or No. 11, it doesn’t really matter.
If the Rebels win out against Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi State and the SEC East division winner, I think they’d qualify for the playoff.
To reiterate: Just win.
Blake Toppmeyer is an SEC Columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY NETWORK: CFP rankings 2022 got Tennessee football and LSU right, Alabama wrong
