HARRISBURG, Pa. (WHTM) — Pennsylvania’s primary election is just a few weeks away on April 23 and among the most heavily anticipated races in the Midstate is the 10th Congressional District.

There are six Democrats running in the district to unseat Republican incumbent Scott Perry, who is running for his seventh term.

To get a better sense of what to expect in April and beyond, abc27 sat down with Berwood Yost, Director of the Floyd Institute for Public Policy Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College.

Yost conducts research on Pennsylvania politics and public opinion. Earlier this month, he released an analysis of how county-level population changes could impact the 2024 presidential election results.

In the report, Yost found that the state’s levels of out-migration since 2020 were higher in counties won by Biden in the 2020 election than in those won by Donald Trump. He concluded that this could potentially benefit Trump and lead to a closer election this year.

How could population changes impact upcoming elections in Pennsylvania: Report

But how could recent Midstate migration trends impact the 10th Congressional District Race?

Yost says the numbers are less clear.

According to Census data, the three counties that make up the district — Dauphin County, Cumberland County, and York County — have all gained population since 2020.

Cumberland and York Counties, which were both won by Trump in 2020, saw larger population increases, gaining 11,259 people and 8,199 respectively.

But Dauphin County, which was won by Joe Biden, only gained 2,832 people.

Census: How is the Midstate’s population changing?

“I don’t know that the population changes that we’re seeing would make the district more competitive because…[Dauphin County] that’s the most democratic part of the district. So if anything, it may give Perry a little more leeway. But it’s really hard to know,” Yost said.

One factor that can provide more insight, Yost says, is where people are moving from into a district.

The most recent data on that, from 2016-2020, is available on the U.S. Census Flows Tracker website. The tracker shows the net migration flows for each county with a color-coded map. Bright orange indicates positive net migration, while bright blue counties indicate negative net migration.

Yost says that a high level of in-migration from Democratic areas may indicate that a county is becoming more blue, and the same is true in the inverse for Republicans.

Yost also pointed to growth in the district as a potential indicator of long-term political shifts.

Cumberland County, as one of the fastest-growing counties in the state, is an area to watch.

“That’s the one thing to keep an eye on… If those new movers are increasingly college educated that signals perhaps a move towards towards Democrats,” Yost said.

While Biden lost significantly in Cumberland County in 2020, census data from the 2022 American Community Survey 5-year Estimate shows that 38.7% of people 25 years and older in the county had a bachelor’s degree or higher from 2018 to 2022.

That is higher than both Dauphin County (33.3%) and York County (26.3%) for the same timeframe, and higher than Cumberland County’s previous estimates.

While Yost has yet to collect any polling data on the race, he says Perry has a clear advantage as a multi-term incumbent. But that doesn't mean a shift in power is impossible.

"I think there's a clear belief that he's vulnerable with the right candidate. And I think with the right candidate, that Democrats will have plenty of funding to try to attack him," Yost said.

Yost says he expects the top issues that could hurt Perry in the race include voter reactions to January 6 and abortion.

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This Week in Pennsylvania

In the inverse, he says the top issues that could hurt Democrats are President Biden's low approval ratings and his record on immigration and the economy.

Yost also added that if the seat does flip, it could be historic.

"This race is interesting, in the national perspective because Democrats control the Senate, Republicans control the House. There's a possibility that that could flip and that Republicans could control the Senate and Democrats could control the House. That has never happened before," Yost said.

In the Senate, Democrat Bob Casey's seat also has the potential to flip.

Who’s running for Senate in Pennsylvania?

According to a recent, Emerson College/abc27/The Hill poll, the economy is the top issue for Pennsylvania voters at 36%, followed by crime (12%), immigration (11%), and threats to democracy (11%).

REWATCH: Pennsylvania 10th Congressional District Democratic Primary Debate

Earlier this month, abc27 also hosted a debate among the PA 10 Democratic candidates and conducted a poll asking which candidate won the debate.

As of about 1 p.m. on March 27, there were 1,955 responses. Mike O'Brien was in the lead with 36% followed by Blake Lynch at 32%. Janelle Stelson was in third place at 14% and all other candidates, including 2022 Democratic nominee Shamaine Daniels, were below 10%.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to ABC27.