Carroll keeps saying Seahawks’ offense must run to function. Why didn’t they run vs Pack?

The only thing missing is Punxsutawney Phil and Bill Murray.

The Seahawks lose. The offense goes nowhere. They pass far more than they run. Their quarterback gets pressured and hit like no one is blocking for him. Their coach the next day says, “We need to run more.”

It’s been Groundhog Day, going on for much of four seasons now with Seattle’s offense.

Not adjusting and taking what defenses were giving them in 2020 is why Pete Carroll said he fired Brian Schottenheimer as his offensive coordinator. At that time, in January after Seattle got dominated by the Los Angeles Rams’ defense in a home playoff loss, Carroll said he was seeking an offensive play caller who would get defenses out of two-high safety coverage that defend so heavily against Russell Wilson’s deep passes to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

“We need to run more with focus and direction and count on it a little bit differently than we did,” Carroll said 10 months ago.

“We need to dictate to the way we’re being played, and better, and see if we can do that.”

He hired Shane Waldron as a first-time play caller from the run-based Rams to do that. Waldron was to dictate to defenses with a renewed running game. Carroll’s intent for 2021 was to get opponents back to putting a safety near the line of scrimmage, “in the box,” to defend Seattle’s increased running featuring lead back Chris Carson — then burn more single-high safety deep with Wilson throwing long.

It’s how with Marshawn Lynch running and Wilson throwing deep to Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and others the Seahawks won the Super Bowl and played in another in the 2013 and ‘14 seasons.

The corollary benefit to increased running: The Seahawks’ annually iffy offensive line would better protect Wilson throwing if defenses had to honor a more effective running game more often.

Seattle’s sixth loss in nine games shows where the offense is — and, more damningly what it’s not — doing.

Sunday in Green Bay, Wilson came off injured reserve and was starting his first game in more than a month, following finger surgery.

Carson is still on injured reserve indefinitely with a long-term neck condition.

Carroll said Monday when asked Carson’s status for Seattle’s home game Sunday against NFC West-leading Arizona (8-2): “I’ll give you an update on that in a couple days. I don’t have anything for you right now. I don’t have an update for you, but we’ll be revisiting all that by Wednesday.”

That doesn’t sound great. Not much has for the last month for Carson.

What Green Bay did

Sunday, the Packers’ plan was to dare the Seahawks, without Carson, to run. Green Bay went “light in the box,” meaning with fewer than the standard front-seven defenders near the line of scrimmage, on 97% of Seattle’s 59 offensive plays according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That was the second-most in an NFL game this season.

The Packers weren’t just in two-deep coverage. Green Bay was five- and sometimes seven-deep in zone coverages to take away, Metcalf and Lockett. The average deepest Packers defender was 16.1 yards off the ball at the snap.

Green Bay blitzed Wilson only 19% of the time. Yet the Packers still hit Wilson 13 times and sacked him three times mostly rushing only their front four linemen. Four Packers beat five Seahawks offensive linemen, regularly.

Despite seven and more defenders being way off the ball, Seattle’s backs carried the ball on just 11 called runs in 59 total plays. Alex Collins, Carson’s fill-in starter, averaged more than 4 yards per carry, but ran just 10 times in a game with the score 3-0 up to 10:37 left in the fourth quarter. Wilson dropped back to pass 48 times.

Wilson completed just 20 of 40 throws for 160 yards and two ghastly interceptions into the end zone in the second half. He completed only 15 of 32 passes when the Packers did not blitz. Both his interceptions were into seven-man coverages.

“We should have won that game,” Wilson said.

They lost.

Green Bay 17, Seattle 0. The first time Wilson had been shut out in his 10-year career. The first time the Seahawks had been shut out since September 2011.

“I didn’t like that we didn’t get to run the ball more,” Carroll said Monday. “In a close game like that, I would have expected that we would have run the ball more than we did.

“The running backs carried the ball 11 times, that’s not enough. It’s not enough to get into a rhythm and it’s not enough to get a feel for the game.”

Carroll said that last December after Seattle’s running backs got 15 carries to Wilson’s 54 drop backs in a 17-12 home loss to the New York Giants.

Heck, Carroll was saying that in September 2018. He said it after Seattle lost ugly on a Monday night at Chicago, when the 0-2 Seahawks were throwing more and running less than any NFL team that year.

Yes, that raises questions.

Why is this happening again? Why on Sunday, with the Green Bay retreating halfway to Madison to cover Wilson’s down-field passing?

Then there’s this: Metcalf said after he and Lockett got eight targets each in Green Bay he wants the ball more in the pass game.

“We’ve got to get the ball to our playmakers and let them make plays,” Metcalf said.

So, yes, the Seahawks’ problems are layered.

For 3-6 teams, they usually are.

Searching for balance

Did Wilson change called runs to passes at the line of scrimmage, even though Green Bay’s looks, a whopping 97% of the time, would have told him to run?

Carroll said it’s not about want-to, or compliance with the plan. He said it’s the run plan going awry because Seattle isn’t sustaining drives.

“Again, in this game it was about not making first downs,” Carroll said of the Seahawks going three and out on two of their first three drives against the Packers, and 1 for their first 5 on third downs into the third quarter. “There’s not enough chances.”

Seattle is 29th in the 32-team NFL at 33.7% converting on third down this season. That’s actually up from 31st last week. Last season the Seahawks were 27th, at 38.4%.

New coordinator. Same issue — including with the defense giving up long drives and shortening the game for Seattle’s offense to do all it wants.

“We have been in this rhythm a lot this year where our opponent will move the ball, kill some clock, and we are playing good defense. But it’s eating up clock,” Carroll said. “When we are not making first downs on the other side, all of a sudden, the half is squished into nothing.

“We are not creating enough movement, so that means we have to drive the ball better. That comes from being efficient on first and second downs and obviously, you need to convert (on third downs). But we would rather be making first and second down move for us, so we make some first downs there.

“It hasn’t caught fire the way it needs to. So it’s still a work in progress for us.”

Still. For four years now.

“It’s been the same story for a while now,” Carroll said. “I hate keeping the topic alive. I want to get this thing and put it behind us.”