Cameron, Beshear, BBQ: Here's what to look for at the Fancy Farm showdown Saturday

This Saturday kicks off both the 143rd Fancy Farm picnic of St. Jerome's Catholic Church and the furious final three months of Kentucky's gubernatorial campaign, where political rivals Gov. Andy Beshear and Attorney Daniel Cameron will finally square up face to face.

For the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 canceled the political speeches of the annual and eccentric event in the tiny Western Kentucky town, this year it should pass for what is typically considered "normal," as a full slate of Democratic speakers are finally scheduled — including Beshear, who hasn't attended since becoming governor.

Here's a rundown of what to look for Saturday at Fancy Farm, where the early weather forecast shows a good chance for thunderstorms and oppressive heat — a fitting backdrop for the event known for testing a candidate's mettle amid biting insults from the stage and relentless heckling from the audience.

Beshear and Cameron throw lightning

And speaking of first times, despite all of the battles between Cameron and Beshear over the last four years, this will be the first time the two will trade barbs at each other in the same room — or picnic shelter, in this case.

The attorney general's office has faced off against Beshear's legal team numerous times in Frankfort courtrooms over the last four years, battling in lawsuits over pandemic-era restrictions, abortion, redistricting and a host of legislation.

Cameron's stump speeches and campaign ads have blasted Beshear's policies, just as Beshear regularly expresses his frustration with Cameron's actions at his weekly press conferences in the Capitol.

While the attorney general has had to sit through several State of the Commonwealth addresses delivered by the governor in the House chamber, Fancy Farm will be the first opportunity for the two to trade insults just a dozen or so feet from each other on stage — ahead of any potential debates that likely won't happen until at least mid-September.

Cameron — as well as many other Republican speakers on stage, who will outnumber Democrats — will assuredly haul out lines hitting the governor on his COVID-era policies and veto of bills targeting transgender youth, if not other surprises.

Beshear's lines could follow his campaign's recent talking points hitting Cameron on education policy or ties to former Gov. Matt Bevin's pardons, or he may take more of a page from his father's book when he ran for reelection to the same office in 2011 — when former Gov. Steve Beshear completely ignored his opponent and stayed positive throughout, breaking tradition.

Back to normal

While Beshear spoke at Fancy Farm during his 2019 race for governor and previous years when he served as attorney general, he skipped the 2021 event due to a spike in COVID cases in the region at the time, then passed on speaking in 2022, too — first to tour Israel, then breaking that plan to visit flood-ravaged areas of Eastern Kentucky.

Most other Democrats joined Beshear in skipping Fancy Farm those years, with none speaking in 2021 and only three speaking last year — turning them into mostly GOP-only affairs.

While the event usually features a rowdy and screaming audience with a partisan split down the middle, Democrats didn't show up in 2021, though they had a better showing in 2022, when U.S. Senate candidate Charles Booker spoke.

This year will feature both Beshear and running mate Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman, as well as the Democratic candidate running for each of the other five statewide constitutional offices on the ballot in November.

This will provide a little more partisan balance to the speeches and likely boost the size and energy of the Democrats in the audience — but also the fervor of the GOP crowd, who've longed for the opportunity to deride and heckle the previously absent governor.

Down the ballot, down the speaking list

Each of the candidates running for the down ballot offices are scheduled to speak this year, including the races for attorney general, secretary of state, state auditor, commissioner of agriculture and state treasurer.

In the race for attorney general, Republican Russell Coleman and Democratic state Rep. Pamela Stevenson will speak from the Fancy Farm stage for the first time, as will the candidates for state treasurer (Republican Mark Metcalf and Democrat Michael Bowman) and commissioner of agriculture (Republican Jonathan Shell and Democrat Sierra Enlow).

State Treasurer Allison Ball has spoken many times at Fancy Farm due to her statewide office. But she is now running for state auditor, facing off against another first-time Fancy Farm speaker, Democrat Kim Reeder.

Republican Secretary of State Michael Adams is running for reelection and is a seasoned joke teller at the event, facing first-time attendee Buddy Wheatley, a former state legislator running for the office.

Elsewhere on the speaking list, there's nothing but Republicans, including the district's state legislators, U.S. Rep. James Comer, Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles and state Auditor Mike Harmon.

Though Sen. Rand Paul is not attending this year, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell indicated he still might attend and speak, pending the schedule of the Senate.

Does any of this really matter?

Though Fancy Farm always draws a swarm of media coverage from throughout the state — and often national media, depending on the race — recent years have begged the question: Is this all a bunch of sound, fury and sweat, signifying nothing?

The general rule among political observers is that a candidate can't really "win" at Fancy Farm, but just has to avoid losing by not making a major gaffe that could provide fodder to harm their campaign. The typical example given was Democrat Scotty Baesler in 1998, as a short clip of his angry speech was plastered on attack ads to make him look deranged, potentially costing him a very close Senate race to Jim Bunning.

But over the past two decades, the candidates perceived to have made major gaffes in their speeches have all still gone on to win their races.

Democrat Jack Conway drew outrage for cursing during his speech at the church picnic, but he went on to win his competitive Democratic Senate primary the following May.

Steve Beshear was widely derided by the press and Republicans for breaking tradition in 2011 — devoting his entire speech to praising troops in the military, free of insults toward his opponent — but went on to win reelection in a blowout that fall.

Matt Bevin also heavily broke tradition in his 2015 speech, deriding the event as a "childish way" of "celebrating our division" and "the very worst elements of the political process," before leading the audience in reciting the Pledge of Allegiance. Despite all the gnashing of teeth that speech brought, Bevin went on to a sizable upset win in his bid for governor that fall.

Though the picnic provides the opportunity to build support in rural Western Kentucky, the speaking event itself is usually populated with a crowd of political activists, many of whom travel from across the state to be there.

And while the event itself is typically thought of as the official kickoff of the general election campaigns after a sleepy post-primary summer, that is just not the case with the governor's race this year.

For example, in the 2019 race for governor, none of the campaigns had even begun running TV ads before Fancy Farm, while outside groups had spent less than $3 million. This year, Beshear's campaign has been running TV ads since the week after the May primary, and together with outside Democratic and Republicans PACs there already has been more than $13 million spent to fill Kentucky airwaves with ads.

But then again, the race between Beshear and Cameron is expected to be tight this fall. And in the face of a campaign where every vote counts, every event counts — especially one broadcast statewide and heavily covered.

More: What is Fancy Farm? Everything to know about Kentucky's political picnic

Reach reporter Joe Sonka at jsonka@courierjournal.com and follow him on Twitter at @joesonka.

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Fancy Farm 2023: What to look for at the annual showdown