California’s Senate primary has a big generation gap. Here’s what the polls say

Katie Porter is far ahead among younger voters in California’s U.S. Senate race. Adam Schiff has a big advantage among older voters.

The race for a six-year Senate term, which includes a long list of candidates, is too close to call overall. But one distinct pattern has emerged among the two frontrunners in poll after poll.

Porter, 49, an Irvine congresswoman, is the clear choice of voters under 50. Schiff, 63, a congressman from Burbank, is the favorite of the older set.

The reasons are rooted largely in their styles and voter perceptions of who they are, since their records are nearly identical.

“Katie Porter’s advantage with younger voters is due to her ability to engage in social media in order to go viral. Schiff is better known through traditional media,” said Christian Grose, academic director of the University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute.

Porter has gained followers through her aggressive questioning of corporate and political leaders at congressional hearings. Schiff, a key figure in the House’s efforts to impeach former President Donald Trump, has a longer history as a member of Congress, helping create a comfort level for older voters.

The Schiff campaign points to its broad support, notably from eight statewide labor unions and some 250 current and former California elected officials. It cites its student ambassadors who help energize young voters at some of the state’s largest campuses.

“Adam is running to be a Senator for all Californians. We’re proud to have a diverse and multi-generational coalition of supporters who believe Adam and his strong record of protecting our democracy, taking on the biggest fights and getting things done is exactly what we need in the Senate to confront our greatest challenges,” said Marisol Samayoa, Schiff for Senate Communications Director.

Porter’s campaign responded after this story posted Monday.

“Californians of all ages want change in Washington,”communications director Mila Myles said in a statement. “Katie’s energy, focus on holding those in power to account, and commitment to shaking up the Senate and unrigging the economy are resonating with voters across California, especially younger voters who are fed up with career politicians selling our country’s future off to the highest bidders.”

What the polls say

The latest statewide polls show big differences in generational support. In the Public Policy Institute of California survey conducted Oct. 3 to 19, Porter led Schiff, 26% to 16%, among voters under 45. Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Oakland, had 9%.

Among those 45 and older, Schiff was up 24% to 13%. Lee has 9 %. The survey polled 1,395 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4%.

The Berkeley-IGS poll, conducted Oct. 24-30, had nearly identical findings. Porter was up 45%-14% with voters under 40. Schiff was ahead 28 to 14% with those over 65. The poll surveyed 4,506 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Porter vs. Schiff

Porter, first elected to Congress in 2018, gained notice using a whiteboard to more easily explain difficult financial concepts and grill corporate and public officials. Her questioning during congressional hearings often went viral on social media.

During one session in 2020, she wrote on her board how the price of a single pill skyrocketed over the years as pharmaceutical executives watched.

That sort of understandable outrage is popular fodder for social media. “Her style is much more viral than Schiff’s style,” said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data, Inc., a California-based analytics firm.

Porter’s social media savvy has won fans outside of her Orange County district. “She’s built a constituency that goes beyond her base,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC statewide survey director.

Schiff’s strength is longevity. He was elected to the state Senate in 1996, then to Congress in 2000, where he beat incumbent Republican James Rogan. He has won reelection easily every two years ever since.

“The longevity of his service has provided the comfort and support for people to understand what he brings to the table,” said Rep. Salud Carbajal, D-Santa Barbara, a Schiff backer.

Schiff in recent years became known for his work as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee and a major player in impeaching Trump. In 2020, he was the top prosecutor in the first Trump impeachment trial.

He became such a villain to Republicans that earlier this year, the GOP-dominated House censured him for his efforts to investigate Trump as Democrats protested loudly.

Schiff was defiant, telling the House after the vote, “I led the first impeachment of Donald Trump, for one of the most egregious presidential abuses of power in our history, and I led a trial which resulted in the first bipartisan vote to remove a president in history.”

If history holds, the generational divide could give Schiff an advantage, because the older the voter, the more likely they are to vote.

Data compiled by Mitchell found that even in a high-turnout presidential year, seniors voted in far bigger numbers.

In 2020’s primaries, 69% of those over 65 voted, while 34% of voters 18 to 24 went to the polls. The percentage rose steadily with age.

In raw numbers, 3.1 million people over 65 voted, and among those 55 to 64, about 1.9 million voted. Among those under 44, the total was 2.9 million.

Will Porter motivate younger voters? It could be that “Porter had a youthful vigor not seen in the other candidates - and often not seen in many of the country’s current politicians,” said Grose.

Then again, said PPIC’s Baldassare, Schiff is “known as more of a player.”