California’s primary election is today. Here are five of the biggest races to watch

The polls say Tuesday is going to be a big day for Donald Trump, Adam Schiff, Steve Garvey and Proposition 1.

But they also suggest that a lot of voters remain undecided–and therefore unpredictable. Nor is it clear how many voters will even turn out, and early ballot returns have been running low.

Welcome to primary day 2024, when Californians can go to the polls until 8 p.m. to choose nominees for president, Congress, local offices and more.

Here are five of the biggest stories to watch out for as results come in this evening.

Will Trump win California easily?

Trump is in a strong position to win all of California’s delegates to the Republican convention. That would mean he’d collect 169 delegates, an important step as he gets closer to the 1,215 needed for nomination.

Trump needs 50% plus one to win all the California delegates, and the Feb. 22-27 Berkeley-IGS poll says he’s likely to do that. So does Wesley Hussey, professor of political science at California State University, Sacramento.

“I think Trump will clear 50% and thereby win all the state’s delegates,” he said Monday.

Trump has momentum. The poll found he was the choice of 75% of Republicans–only registered GOP voters can vote for the party’s candidates in the primary–up from 66% in January.

His primary challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, had 15% in the poll, up 4 from January.

Is a Schiff-Garvey Senate race ahead?

Republican Steve Garvey, the former baseball star, has surged into the lead in the Berkeley poll and is second in other recent voter surveys. Candidates are vying in two elections today, one to fill the term of the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who died in September, and another for the full six-year term that begins in January.

The top two finishers in the races move on to November. Frontrunner Adam Schiff, the Los Angeles-area congressman, and his supporters have spent millions on ads touting Garvey’s conservatism. That’s seen as a bid to boost Garvey, who polls show would lose big to Schiff.

Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, is not far behind in primary polls, which also show that a Schiff-Porter race would be too close to call. Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Oakland, has been running a distant fourth. One wild card: About one in 10 voters remained undecided as of last week.

Can Democrats survive in the Valadao race?

Democrats need only a net gain of four seats nationwide to win control of the House next year, and as many as six close races, five involving incumbent Republicans are in California.

While no seats will be won or lost Tuesday, the political world is watching closely the Central Valley’s 22nd district’ race. Republican Rep. David Valadao faces two prominent Democrats, former Assemblyman Rudy Salas and State Sen. Marissa Hurtado. Also running is Republican Chris Mathys.

Democrats see a great opportunity here, since Biden won the district by 13 points in 2020. But if Salas and Hurtado split the votes, and Valadao and Mathys finish 1-2 the seat stays in the GOP column.

Will voters back Proposition 1?

The ballot measure, pushed hard by Gov. Gavin Newsom, is aimed at easing the state’s ballooning homelessness crisis.

It asks voters to approve a $6.38 billion bond that would help build more facilities for housing for homeless people or those with mental health or substance abuse issues.

About $4.4 billion would be used for new facilities to help people with mental health and substance abuse treatment. The rest of the funding would go for housing, and more than half would be aimed at helping veterans who need aid.

Newsom said the measure would pay for 11,150 new beds and housing units for people living on the streets with untreated mental illness or addiction..

Support for the plan has been dropping and was 50% in the Berkeley poll. “The fact that Yes side support stood at just 50% one week before the election adds a measure of uncertainty to its outcome “ Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley poll, said in a prepared statement. He said most voters who remain undecided late in a campaign tend to vote no — and 16% remained uncertain.

Who will run for mayor in November?

The city of Sacramento will take the first steps in choosing a new mayor for the first time since Darrell Steinberg was elected in 2016, and it’s a crowded field.

There are four viable candidates competing for the post — California Assemblyman Kevin McCarty, former state Sen. Dr. Richard Pan, former councilman Steve Hansen, and epidemiologist Flojaune Cofer.

Cofer, the farthest left on the political spectrum, wants to reduce police funding and cut back on homeless encampment sweeps. Hansen is seen as the most moderate of the candidates, though all four are Democrats. He wants to increase police funding and hire at least 100 new officers. Pan, who is endorsed by District Attorney Thien Ho, is also moderate, while McCarty is more in the middle.

The top two candidates will advance to the Nov. 5 general election, where the winner will be determined. The new mayor’s term will begin Dec. 10.